Forecast of slight decrease in gasoline prices?
According to forecasts from some petroleum businesses, the price of RON 95 gasoline may decrease by 50 VND/liter, E5 RON 92 gasoline is expected to decrease by 100 VND/liter; DO oil price is expected to decrease by 400 - 450 VND/liter in the adjustment period on November 21.
The decline in world oil prices also affects domestic gasoline prices. However, domestic gasoline prices are referenced by finished gasoline prices on the Singapore market.
Therefore, the base price of gasoline and oil for calculation at the adjustment session on November 21 still has mixed developments, but the general trend is still downward.
Gasoline prices are expected to be adjusted down slightly on November 21.
Specifically, the forecast for gasoline prices in the adjustment period on November 21 is that RON 95 gasoline prices may decrease by 50 VND/liter, E5 RON 92 gasoline is forecast to decrease by 100 VND/liter; DO oil prices are forecast to decrease by 400 - 450 VND/liter. The increase or decrease in gasoline prices also depends on the operator's use of the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund.
In the domestic market, the selling prices of gasoline and oil today are applied according to the prices at the management session on the afternoon of November 13 of the Ministry of Finance - Industry and Trade.
Specifically, the price of E5 RON92 gasoline decreased by 340 VND/liter, to 22,274 VND/liter. The price of RON95 gasoline decreased by 399 VND/liter, not higher than 23,530 VND/liter.
Diesel price decreased by 1,052 VND/liter, not higher than 20,888 VND/liter. Kerosene price decreased by 793 VND/liter, not higher than 21,512 VND/liter. Fuel oil price decreased by 617 VND/kg, not higher than 15,623 VND/kg.
Since the beginning of the year, gasoline prices have undergone 32 adjustments, including 18 increases, 10 decreases, and 4 unchanged.
Shorten the time to manage gasoline prices from 10 to 7 days
In another development, the Government has just issued Decree No. 80/2023/ND-CP amending and supplementing a number of articles of Decree No. 95/2021/ND-CP and Decree No. 83/2014/ND-CP on petroleum trading (Decree 80), effective from November 17.
According to Decree 80, the time for managing gasoline prices has been shortened from 10 days to 7 days. The time for managing gasoline prices is implemented every Thursday.
Regarding the price formula and method of managing gasoline prices, the Decree stipulates adjusting the time for reviewing and announcing the cost of bringing gasoline from abroad to Vietnamese ports, the cost of bringing gasoline from domestic refineries to ports, and the premium for calculating gasoline prices from domestic production sources from 6 months to 3 months to ensure more timely updates of prices and costs for businesses, creating motivation for businesses to create gasoline sources to supply the domestic market.
Also in this amendment, it allows petrol dealers to get petrol from a maximum of 3 sources to create competition in petrol discounts in the market, while increasing the initiative for petrol retailers in sourcing and supplying petrol, instead of the previous regulation of only being allowed to import from 1 source.
The Decree also amended and supplemented regulations on cases of revoking the Petroleum Business License of traders to ensure compliance with legal regulations and avoid sudden disruptions in the supply of petroleum, especially during times when domestic petroleum supply is affected and scarce.
In addition, Decree 80 has added regulations and measures to manage and supervise more closely the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund. Specifically, the stabilization fund is still located in the enterprise and managed by the main trader on the basis of separate deductions, accounting and monitoring through an account opened at a commercial bank and is responsible before the law for this.
However, the new point of this Decree is that banks will freeze the price stabilization fund accounts of enterprises. This account can only be used for the purpose of setting up and spending the price stabilization fund according to the announcement on gasoline price management of the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
The above changes, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, are aimed at resolving remaining problems and shortcomings to better suit the practical situation.
World oil prices slightly decreased
The decrease in world oil prices affects the retail price of gasoline in Vietnam. (Photo: PVN).
Today's gasoline and oil prices, November 19, in the world at 7:00 a.m. (Vietnam time), are as follows:
WTI crude oil price decreased to 73.171 USD/barrel, equivalent to a decrease of 4.55%, Brent oil price decreased to 77.650 USD/barrel, equivalent to a decrease of 4.35% compared to the previous trading session. Compared to the same period last year, WTI crude oil price decreased by 9.77%, Brent oil price decreased by 11.76%.
With WTI crude oil prices at $73/barrel and Brent crude oil prices also trading at $77/barrel, this is recorded as a record low since 2023.
The reason for the drop in world oil prices is due to increasingly low consumer demand and increasingly secure supply.
Meanwhile, China’s refinery output fell 2.8% from the previous month’s record in October, indicating lower demand for industrial fuels and in line with slowing industrial activity as the country’s manufacturing sector unexpectedly contracted.
In addition, the latest data from the EIA showed that fuel products supplied decreased by 7.6% compared to the previous week in mid-November, consistent with the agency's previous report. The forecasts of a difficult oil market in terms of supply as previously forecast did not happen.
Meanwhile, a similar report from the EIA showed that US crude oil inventories increased by 17.5 million barrels in the past two weeks. These factors have caused crude oil prices to continuously fall sharply in the trading sessions in mid-November.
PHAM DUY
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