Iran and Saudi Arabia – two rival powers in the Gulf, have also received invitations to join the BRICS group of emerging economies led by China and Russia.
Although the platform is seen as a suitable venue for the budding bilateral normalization process between the two sides, the reactions from Tehran and Riyadh to the invitation to join BRICS have been markedly different.
Two platforms, one purpose
One of the notable aspects of the “historic decision” of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) announced at the Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa last month was the invitation to join the grouping extended to Iran and Saudi Arabia – two rival powers in the Gulf.
But BRICS is not the only multilateral platform for cooperation and dialogue between Riyadh and Tehran. Iran became a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in 2022, while Saudi Arabia became a “dialogue partner” and is poised to become a full member of the China-led Eurasian security forum.
Simultaneous BRICS accession and, in the future, Saudi Arabia's accession to the SCO, could further strengthen the bilateral normalization process between Tehran and Riyadh.
Leaders attending the 15th BRICS Summit in South Africa pose for a photo in August 2023. At the summit, BRICS made a historic decision to invite six more countries to join the group, including Iran and Saudi Arabia. Photo: Tehran Times
For Iran and Saudi Arabia, what is important is a trajectory, a long-term prospect of normalization, rather than immediate results and unrealistic commitments and expectations. In other words, a forum like BRICS, where both countries can interact on an equal footing and all decisions are made by consensus, could be a suitable forum to gradually build mutual trust.
However, the reactions from Tehran and Riyadh to the invitation to join BRICS have been markedly different. While Iranian officials have welcomed the prospect, Saudi Arabia – a traditional US ally in the Middle East – has been much more cautious. Riyadh has indicated the need to study further the details of BRICS membership requirements before confirming its participation.
These reactions stem from the different needs of the two Middle Eastern giants. For Iran, joining the SCO is more closely scrutinized than joining BRICS. In the eyes of the West, BRICS is not like the SCO, but is more global because its members include democracies. Getting the “green light” to join the bloc is a diplomatic success for Iran.
As for Saudi Arabia, according to analysts, before making any decision, Saudi Arabia will probe the US's reaction first.
More ups and downs
The kingdom’s once-solid alliance with the US has frayed on a number of fronts; joining BRICS will only accelerate this trend – but Saudi Arabia is far from abandoning its ties to the world’s leading power.
“Saudi Arabia will first assess Washington’s reaction and consider any offers from the delegations that US President Joe Biden will send to Riyadh, before further considering accepting the invitation,” Sami Hamdi, managing director of International Interest, a political risk firm focused on the Middle East, told Al Jazeera.
But Saudi Arabia is already a regional leader, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has made no secret of his ambition to make his kingdom a global power. And diversifying its foreign relations, especially building a deeper relationship with China, is equally important, according to Michelle Grise, a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation.
Therefore, it is very likely that Riyadh, after the necessary diplomatic pause, will accept the invitation to join BRICS.
A resident in Tehran holds a local newspaper, dated March 11, 2023, reporting on a China-brokered deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore ties between the two former Middle East foes. Photo: Getty Images
It is worth noting that, after all, platforms such as BRICS and SCO can only support, not replace, the Saudi-Iranian bilateral normalization roadmap. Although the Tehran-Riyadh dialogue has been taking place with high-level meetings of foreign ministers and top defense officials, it is still at an early stage. Despite the optimistic timetable, the work of diplomatic missions in both countries has not yet been fully restored.
It is likely that Saudi-Iranian relations will experience further ups and downs, especially if normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel materializes. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has warned that normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel would not only be a betrayal of the Palestinian cause but would also be a catalyst for regional instability.
If Saudi Arabia and Iran were to once again take a confrontational stance, it could have a negative impact on BRICS cohesion, with both sides using whatever leverage they have to disadvantage the other. In that case, the current BRICS members may regret their decision to include geopolitical rivals from the Gulf in their grouping.
Most importantly, however, both Tehran and Riyadh see long-term national interests in de-escalating and normalizing relations. For the foreseeable future, at least, this trajectory seems likely to be maintained, despite the pitfalls along the way. Shared membership in BRICS – and, in the future, perhaps the SCO – provides additional venues for confidence-building .
Minh Duc (According to Modern Diplomacy, Al Jazeera)
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