Based on national financial capacity, technical factors and the country's actual needs, investment in high-speed railways should be implemented soon.
Part 1: Solving the "thirst" for passenger transport supply
While freight transport is well served by sea and coastal waterway transport, passenger transport is facing an imbalance between modes and overload if a new, modern form of transport is not invested in soon.
There are planes and trains, but still choose buses.
One weekend evening in September 2024, after saying goodbye to his elderly mother in Vinh City, Mr. Pham Hong Phuong, an employee of a traffic construction company, hurriedly took a bus with his wife back to the capital to make it to work the next day.
The benefits of high-speed railways have been proven when many countries have invested very successfully (illustrative photo).
Many years after leaving his hometown for the city, until now, the sleeper bus is still the means of transport he chooses on his journey home.
According to Mr. Phuong, there are also trains and planes connecting Hanoi to Vinh City. Trains are safe but the travel time is quite long, taking 8 hours.
For airplanes, the flight time from Vinh to Noi Bai only takes about 35 minutes, but the total travel time and check-in procedures take about 2.5 - 3 hours, equal to the time spent by personal car, and the total travel cost is 3 times more expensive than by bus.
Mr. Tran Thien Canh, Director of Vietnam Railway Authority:
Stimulate tourism, economic development
Vietnam's railway network currently has 7 routes, of which the Hanoi - Ho Chi Minh City route transport volume accounts for approximately 50% of the total network volume, but the infrastructure was built more than 140 years ago.
The current situation shows that it is necessary to have new, modern, high-speed, safe railway lines to transport large volumes to meet the increasing transportation needs.
Investing in high-speed railways not only meets transportation needs but also contributes to population dispersion, avoiding concentration in big cities such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, stimulating tourism and socio-economic development.
"Going by sleeper bus, the ticket price is only about 300,000 VND/person, passengers are picked up at their destination, travel time is only about 5 hours," said Mr. Phuong, adding that in reality, there are many different modes of transportation but they are not really convenient.
In the near future, he hopes that the Central region will have a form of transportation that is faster than buses and trains and easier to access and travel than planes.
With about 30 years of experience in the railway transport sector, Mr. Huynh The Son, Deputy Head of the Business Department of Hanoi Railway Transport Joint Stock Company, said: Ticket price is an important factor, but the key to deciding the attractiveness of railways is travel speed and travel time.
As evidence, Mr. Son said, on the Hanoi - Vinh route, the average sleeper bus ticket price is about 300,000 - 350,000 VND.
While the price of a non-stop train ticket is only about 400,000 VND/bed. However, the number of passengers traveling by train is very small because the travel time is twice that of a bus.
On the 300-400km route, the railway is losing many passengers to the road. After the Dien Chau - Bai Vot expressway was put into operation, the number of passengers traveling by train on the Hanoi - Vinh route has clearly decreased.
In the summer of 2023, in addition to the two regular passenger trains (NA1/NA2), the transport unit will not set up additional trains like previous years because there is no demand.
"Even if passenger demand suddenly increases, we cannot add more trains because the road capacity has reached its limit," said Mr. Son.
Imbalance between methods
The imbalance in the market share of passenger transport among modes is the assessment of the Ministry of Transport on the current overall transport picture.
The Ministry of Transport’s leaders said that currently, airlines are struggling to maintain flights under 500km (which are often unprofitable), using profits from long flights to offset losses from short flights. Meanwhile, on the Hanoi - Ho Chi Minh City route, there are still passenger transport buses running continuously by road.
"The process of planning the fields of the transport industry has considered the potential and advantages of each method to build development scenarios.
Accordingly, for passenger transport, short distances (under 150km) are dominated by roads. Medium distances (150 - 800km) are dominated by high-speed rail. Long distances (over 800km) are dominated by aviation and a part of high-speed railway.
Investing in the construction of high-speed railways will contribute significantly to restructuring the market share of passenger transport among modes in a sustainable direction," said the leader of the Ministry of Transport.
Need large, fast means of transport
Mr. Chu Van Tuan, Deputy Director of the Railway Project Management Board (Ministry of Transport) said that on the North-South corridor, the transport system includes: Road has the largest transport market share (in 2019, accounting for nearly 63% of passengers and more than 50% of goods).
Railway infrastructure is outdated, service quality does not meet demand, so market share is very low (in 2019, it accounted for 3.2% of passengers and 0.5-1% of goods).
Waterways and maritime routes are capable of transporting large volumes at low costs, taking on the majority of freight transport needs on the North-South axis (in 2019, the volume was 133 million tons/year, accounting for more than 48%).
Aviation has grown rapidly in recent years, about 18% per year, accounting for about 36.6% of passenger transport market share.
"Freight transport basically meets demand at low cost. However, passenger transport is unbalanced," Mr. Tuan commented.
According to him, the North-South economic corridor accounts for 54% of the population, 63% of economic zones, 72% of major seaports, 40% of industrial zones and contributes over 51% of the country's GDP.
By 2050, the demand for freight transport on the North-South corridor will reach 1.4 - 1.7 billion tons/year, and passenger demand will reach 1.1 - 1.3 billion passengers/year.
This forecast volume will be handled by all modes of transport. Of which, sea and river transport have the advantage of transporting large volumes of goods at low cost, so they will take on the majority of the transport market share.
Passenger transport will be allocated to rail, road and air depending on the distance each mode has advantages. Transport on the railway corridor alone is forecast to reach about 18.2 million tons/year and 122.7 million passengers/year by 2050.
"The demand for passenger transport will be greatly lacking without a high-speed, mass transport method like high-speed railways," said Mr. Tuan.
Priority passenger transport
According to the leader of the Ministry of Transport, the current average cost of 1 ton/km for maritime and waterway transport is about 450 VND, for railways it is about 680 VND, and for air transport it is more expensive.
The high-speed railway project passes through 20 provinces and cities, starting in Hanoi (Ngoc Hoi station complex) and ending in Ho Chi Minh City (Thu Thiem station). Graphics: Nguyen Tuong.
Coastal countries with similar terrain to Vietnam such as Japan, Italy, Indonesia... all choose to transport goods mainly by sea and inland waterways due to cost advantages.
"China is a country with developed railways, but when deciding to build a freight route from Nanning to the sea, it invested in the 134km Binh Luc Canal for 5,000-ton ships, with a total cost of over 10 billion USD," the leader of the Ministry of Transport cited and said that most countries with developed railway networks use existing railways to transport goods, and high-speed railways mainly transport passengers.
Having been involved in the development of the transport industry for many years, Mr. Nguyen Ngoc Dong, former Deputy Minister of Transport, assessed that the North - South corridor is the most important of the 38 transport corridors of the country, with very high transport demand with an average growth rate of about 10%/year.
It is forecasted that by 2030, if a new mode of transport is not developed, it will be very difficult to meet the transport demand. This reality requires Vietnam to soon have a new railway line (RTL) to supplement the existing railway line, focusing mainly on passenger transport.
"Vietnam is an open economy, goods are mainly produced for export. Along the North-South route, there are many seaports, goods will be collected by road to the seaport. Transporting goods by sea is still optimal," Mr. Dong explained.
According to Mr. Dong, Vietnam's tourism development strategy sets a target of total revenue from tourists reaching about 130 - 135 billion USD by 2030, directly contributing 15 - 17% to GDP.
"According to international experience, the tourism industry has a positive relationship with the tourism and service industries. The development of the tourism industry is an important factor promoting the development of services and tourism," Mr. Dong analyzed.
The sooner the better
According to National Assembly Deputy Pham Van Thinh (Economic Committee of the National Assembly), the transport capacity of railways is very good and highly effective.
However, for many years, railways in general and the North-South route in particular have not been given priority for investment with adequate resources. Therefore, the sooner the railway is built, the better.
"The DSTDC project is large-scale, technically complex, and requires large investment resources. Therefore, how to mobilize resources needs to be carefully calculated to ensure feasibility," said Mr. Thinh.
National Assembly Deputy Tran Van Tien (Economic Committee of the National Assembly) acknowledged that for a country with a length of more than 2,000km like ours, developing high-speed railways is very necessary.
"The benefits of renewable energy have been proven when many countries have invested very successfully. With technology running entirely on electricity, renewable energy also contributes to the development of a green economy - the goal we are aiming for. At the present time, investment is a "must do immediately" thing," said Mr. Tien.
Economist, Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang also said: "We should have done this a long time ago. Having a method of mass, high-speed, and safe transportation is an urgent requirement."
Mr. Lang analyzed that setting high goals will naturally result in high investment capital. However, we can mobilize from many sources, not just rely on the budget. "Capital is not a problem, the most important thing is to calculate effectively and feasible," Mr. Lang suggested.
The right time
Research by the Ministry of Transport and consultants shows that Japan decided to invest in the first railway line in 1950, when GDP per capita was only about 250 USD.
China invested in 2005, when GDP per capita reached 1,753 USD; Uzbekistan invested in 2011, when GDP per capita reached 1,926 USD. Indonesia invested in 2015, when GDP per capita was about 3,322 USD.
In Vietnam, according to World Bank research, this is the right time to build a high-speed railway when GDP per capita in 2023 will reach about 4,282 USD and is estimated to reach about 7,500 USD in 2030.
The size of the economy in 2023 will be about 430 billion USD, nearly 3 times larger than in 2010; public debt will be low, only about 37% of GDP.
It is expected that by the time the construction of the HSR is implemented in 2027, the size of the economy will reach about 564 billion USD, so investment resources will no longer be a major obstacle.
Make the high-speed rail line as straight as possible
On the morning of September 25, Deputy Prime Minister Tran Hong Ha chaired a meeting to listen to a report on the implementation of the North-South Expressway project.
At the meeting, Deputy Minister of Transport Nguyen Danh Huy reported that the goal is to strive to approve the investment policy before 2025; clear the site and start construction before 2030; and complete the entire route before 2045.
The investment scope of the project starts in Hanoi (Ngoc Hoi Station Complex). The end point in Ho Chi Minh City is Thu Thiem Station. The project passes through 20 provinces and cities.
Concluding the meeting, Deputy Prime Minister Tran Hong Ha requested that the Ministry of Transport, during the acceptance process, should pay attention to, in addition to the investment scope from the starting point of the project in Hanoi to the end point in Ho Chi Minh City, it is necessary to consider and study the plan to extend the expressway from Mong Cai to Ca Mau Cape.
In addition, the pre-feasibility report needs to demonstrate the investment perspective to build a railway line with a design speed of 350km/h as straight as possible, crossing mountains and building bridges over rivers.
At the same time, propose specific mechanisms and policies on investment phases, allocation of central and local capital sources once or every 5 years, use of bonds, ODA and other legal sources, and take advantage of the public debt ceiling.
The Ministry of Transport needs to propose solutions to increase decentralization, delegation of authority, and assign responsibility to localities for site preparation, construction of technical infrastructure works, stations, etc.
Source: https://www.baogiaothong.vn/vi-sao-can-som-lam-duong-sat-toc-do-cao-192240930235436264.htm
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