President Zelensky plays 'all-in' with Russia?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's decision to attack Russia's Kursk is considered a life-or-death gamble by Kyiv to seek more advantages before negotiating with Moscow.

The Guardian newspaper yesterday (January 7) quoted an announcement from Russia saying that Ukraine had launched a new attack in the Kursk region in western Russia.

Ukrainian troops in the area near the Russian border in 2024

The role of the battle at Kursk

Kursk is where Russian troops have been trying to push back Ukrainian forces for the past five months. On January 6, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that its forces had defeated the Ukrainian side. Meanwhile, Russian military bloggers reported fierce fighting and heavy pressure on Moscow. The Ukrainian General Staff said that 42 clashes took place on January 5 in the Kursk region, with 12 still ongoing. In August 2024, Ukraine launched a cross-border offensive into the Kursk region, and Russian troops have since recaptured only about 40% of the lost territory.

Responding to Thanh Nien yesterday (January 7), US military intelligence expert Carl O. Schuster assessed: "Perhaps, before US President-elect Donald Trump takes office, President Zelensky hopes to regain the important tactical area lost to Russia last summer. Mr. Zelensky wants to strengthen his negotiating position before Mr. Trump proposes any ceasefire and peace negotiations initiatives for the Ukraine conflict."

In less than two months, the conflict in Ukraine has escalated. In late November 2024, after receiving permission from the US to use long-range weapons provided by Washington to attack Russian territory, Kyiv launched several ATACMS missiles at Russia. But then, Moscow responded by launching the Oreshnik hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) to attack Ukraine. This was the first time Russia used a hypersonic IRBM to attack Ukraine since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine. At the same time, Russia also launched a strong attack on Ukraine.

In an analysis sent to Thanh Nien at that time, an expert from Eurasia Group (USA), the world's leading political risk research and consulting firm, compared what was happening in the Ukraine conflict to the efforts of two football teams in the final minutes of a match. "The match whistle will soon sound after January 20, 2025 (when Mr. Trump takes office)," the expert from Eurasia Group (USA) analyzed.

In fact, Mr. Trump is holding meaningful "cards" to pressure both Kyiv and Moscow to force the two sides to sit at the negotiating table. So both sides are looking to gain more advantages on the battlefield right before sitting at the negotiating table. This is the motivation for Mr. Zelensky to be ready to play "all in" before "the final whistle blows".

Battle correlation

Analyzing the war in Ukraine, expert Schuster assessed: "All signs show that Ukraine is targeting Russian strong points with heavy artillery and precision weapons attacks. Most likely, Ukraine will also target positions where North Korean soldiers are believed to be present. In fact, the current North Korean military force has no combat experience and is unlikely to survive heavy artillery attacks. This force will also be more vulnerable to drone attacks. I believe that Ukraine will achieve some initial success but must avoid going beyond its operational range. Ukraine should occupy the main terrain, not advance further and prepare to conduct mobile defense against the Russian counterattack that will take place in February."

However, expert Schuster also raised the question: "President Zelensky could repeat the mistake in 2023 and try to continue the attack beyond those initial achievements. That would cause the Ukrainian army to suffer more casualties than possible." The mistake the expert mentioned was that Ukraine in 2023 organized a strong counterattack against Russia, but was unsuccessful and even suffered heavy losses due to spreading its forces too widely, while Moscow had the advantage in heavy artillery and missiles.

Former Colonel Schuster added: "The rains that began in March will limit military operations, so the timing of this counterattack is almost perfect. Russia only has 3-5 weeks to redeploy its forces to stop the Ukrainian advance and regain lost territory."

Source: https://thanhnien.vn/tong-thong-zelensky-choi-tat-tay-voi-nga-185250107214646501.htm