Despite major disagreements, experts do not believe Russia will "withdraw"

Professor Armagan Gozkaman, Dean of the Faculty of International Relations at Istanbul Beykent University, said that it is likely that Russia will continue to participate in negotiations to extend the grain agreement.

Ships carrying Ukrainian grain exports leave ports in the Black Sea. (Source: Reuters)

“I don't believe Russia will actually pull out of this grain deal for three reasons,” Mr. Gozkaman said.

First, Moscow gets certain benefits in exchange for facilitating the transport of Ukrainian food across the Black Sea, selling fertilizers and options to sell natural gas. “This is very important and Russia will not give it up,” Professor Gozkaman stressed.

Second , the impact on African countries. According to Mr. Gozkaman, something very serious would have to happen for Moscow to withdraw from the Black Sea grain deal.

For example, a serious escalation in the level of confrontation between the parties to the conflict or a complete and deliberate failure by the party that has agreed with Moscow on the export of Russian fertilizers and gas to fulfill its obligations.

Third , China's participation in the grain deal. Mr. Gozkaman said that if the current grain deal is canceled, Russia could lose some of its preferential treatment in trading with China.

Earlier, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia will not continuously demonstrate goodwill in the context of the grain deal, because the West does not implement agreements to export Russian agricultural products.

Mr. Peskov left open the possibility that the country will leave the agreement after the next extension ends.

There is still major disagreement between Russia and the other parties over the effectiveness of the grain deal.

While the US, Ukraine and some Western countries believe that most of Ukraine's grain exported through this corridor is shipped to developing countries, Russia believes that supplying Ukraine's grain to the world market does not solve many problems.

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