In the first four months of the 2024-2025 coffee crop year, global coffee exports reached 42.79 million bags, down 4.9% from 45.01 million bags in the same period of the 2023-2024 crop year. Coffee prices have increased by 9-20% since the beginning of the year.
Coffee price today 3/10/2025
World coffee prices fluctuated sharply last week, going through many emotional levels, due to the impact of many market factors. Among them, concerns about supply are still a factor that continues to support coffee prices.
In summary, last week, despite strong fluctuations, coffee prices on both exchanges and domestically increased, robusta increased slightly, arabica increased by more than 10 cents/lb. Inventory on the exchange and the USD exchange rate are also the main factors strongly affecting coffee prices.
Domestic coffee prices have been volatile. Prices rose sharply at the beginning of the week, reaching a record high of VND135,000/kg, thanks to the influence of the world market. However, prices fell at the end of the week due to positive weather information in Brazil and Vietnam, helping to ease concerns about global supply.
Robusta prices came under pressure after the General Statistics Office of Vietnam reported that Vietnam’s February coffee exports rose 6.6% year-on-year to 169,000 tonnes. Rains in Vietnam also weighed on robusta prices, with forecasts pointing to daily rains next week in Vietnam’s Central Highlands, the country’s largest coffee-growing region.
Arabica coffee prices have temporarily improved. However, the weekend trading session extended the previous day's sharp decline due to forecasts of rain in Brazil. The weather agency Somar Meteorologia said on March 6 that Brazil's weather over the weekend will bring showers until next week, easing the long-standing drought.
Weather conditions in Brazil are being closely watched as harvest in Brazil’s robusta conilon growing regions begins next month, while the arabica harvest is expected to start around mid-year. Scattered rains are forecast for next week, a welcome relief after a historically drier February.
However, before the weather "joy", analysts noted that Cecafe reported on February 12 that Brazil's green coffee exports in January 2025 decreased by 1.6% compared to the same period last year to 3.98 million bags. Meanwhile, on January 28, Conab, the Brazilian government's crop forecasting agency, said that Brazil's 2025/26 coffee crop will decrease by 4.4% compared to the same period last year to a three-year low of 51.81 million bags. This shows that the supply from Brazil has not shown any signs of improvement. Although coffee prices will fluctuate according to the market, as well as weather updates, the core issue is that the supply remains the same.
A recovery in robusta inventories, which rose to a one-month high at the end of last week, reaching 4,356 lots, was also a negative factor for prices. Certified graded arabica holdings on the New York Mercantile Exchange, which have been falling for the past few weeks, have improved, rising by 11,949 bags, but remain in the low range.
External influences and macroeconomic developments surrounding the USD against other major currencies have caused the Brazilian Real to gain 2.60% against the USD in the first week of March, with Brazil’s Carnival holiday that has been in place since late February ending on March 5, which could see an increase in activity in the largest coffee producing and exporting country to consumer markets.
In other news, global coffee traders and roasters have cut purchases to a minimum, as the industry reels from sharp price increases while suppliers fail to convince retailers to accept price increases.
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| Domestic coffee prices last weekend (March 8) decreased by 500 - 700 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: doanhnhan.biz) |
According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the trading session last weekend (March 7), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for delivery in May 2025 continued to decrease by 74 USD, trading at 5,353 USD/ton. The delivery in July 2025 decreased by 68 USD, trading at 5,318 USD/ton. Trading volume was very low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York floor, delivery term May 2025 decreased by 2.75 cents, trading at 384.40 cents/lb. Meanwhile, delivery term July 2025 decreased by 0.15 cents, trading at 377.40 cents/lb. Trading volume is high.
Domestic coffee prices last weekend (March 8) decreased by 500 - 700 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
From last week's data, it is forecasted that this week, prices will remain stable, with a sideways trend due to the lack of significant changes in supply and demand factors.
Overall, during the week of March 10-15, coffee prices are unlikely to fluctuate much, remaining within the established price range. However, the coffee market can be affected by factors such as weather, supply and demand, and fluctuations in the international market. Therefore, coffee growers and traders should regularly monitor market information to make appropriate decisions.
In the first 4 months of the 2024-2025 coffee crop year, total coffee exports reached 42.79 million bags, down 4.9% compared to the 2023-2024 crop year.
Rising coffee prices are leaving shelves bare at major retail chains in several European countries, Bloomberg reported, with the Netherlands seeing the biggest supermarket chains, Albert Heijn and Jumbo, announcing they were halting some coffee imports while they renegotiate supply contracts.
There have also been reports of similar disruptions at German supermarket chains such as Edeka and Aldi Nord, as well as in Belgium, where retail group Colruyt has settled negotiations after suspending orders over pricing issues.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-1032025-gia-ca-phe-da-qua-con-song-gio-su-that-ve-nguon-cung-du-bao-thi-truong-tuan-nay-the-nao-306967.html
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