With US military aid ending and European support uncertain, Ukraine is ramping up production of drones, missiles and other weapons.
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| Ukraine's domestically produced Hrim-2 hypersonic ballistic missile. (Source: TMZ) |
In an interview with The Economist published on February 12 ahead of a historic White House confrontation with his US counterpart Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said: "If we are not invited to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), we will have to build NATO on our own territory."
Zelensky’s comments were in response to earlier signals from the Trump administration that Ukraine would not be able to join NATO. After a tense Oval Office debate on February 28, and the Trump administration’s move to cut off all military aid to Ukraine, dealing with Russia in the conflict without relying on Western supplies has become even more urgent for Kiev.
Offensive and defensive
Since 2022, Ukraine has steadily expanded its strikes deep into Russian territory while refining its long-range technology. In his New Year's speech, Mr. Zelensky affirmed these efforts, claiming that Ukraine now produces more than a million unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) annually and has increased missile production, calling it "Ukraine's stance on a just peace."
Entering the fourth year of the conflict, long-range strike capabilities have become a cornerstone of Kiev’s defense strategy. They are central to Ukraine’s efforts to “build NATO within its borders.” While Western military aid remains vital, Kiev’s ability to produce its own missiles is emerging as a fulcrum in the conflict.
This shift in focus is also evident in the support provided by Ukraine’s Western partners. Sweden’s latest $1.2 billion military aid package, for example, includes $90 million for Ukrainian missile and drone production. Those capabilities will be tested as Washington withdraws military aid.
At the same time, Ukraine has focused its attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure, especially oil refineries - Moscow's "backbone" source of revenue. It is estimated that Ukrainian drone and missile attacks have destroyed 10% of Russia's oil refining capacity.
Four major Russian oil refineries have been shut down after Ukrainian drone attacks in the past month alone. In addition to oil refineries, Ukraine has expanded its targeting to include oil transportation hubs, weapons factories, and ammunition depots.
In a recent interview, Serhii Kuzan, chairman of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation and a former adviser to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, emphasized the broader impact of these attacks, noting that “Russia’s oil industry is an important pillar of the economy – oil and oil products account for the majority of the country’s exports.”
Disrupting Russia’s refining capacity would push up domestic fuel prices, Kuzan said, adding to economic tensions. While Moscow has found ways to circumvent Western sanctions, Kuzan said Russia has yet to effectively counter Ukraine’s growing UAV capabilities. Successful attacks by Kiev have made it harder to maintain Russia’s supply chains, operations, and management, Kuzan said.
Speaking after opening peace talks with the US in February, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov condemned Ukrainian drone attacks on the Caspian pipeline complex.
Ukraine’s UAV campaign is likely to intensify as the US halts aid to Ukraine in the conflict. A Ukrainian UAV unit commander revealed that the unit’s main goal is to disrupt logistics centers, destroy ammunition depots, and relieve pressure on the front lines. With UAVs capable of reaching 2,000 kilometers, Ukraine can now strike deep into Russian territory, and the capability is continuing to grow.
Amid limited supplies of Western long-range missiles, such as the ATACMS and Storm Shadow, Ukraine has prioritized domestic production capacity, setting an ambitious target of producing 3,000 long-range missiles by the end of 2025.
Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov doubled down on this pledge, declaring that “2025 will be the year of Ukrainian cruise missiles.”
Clearly, missile production is much more complex than UAV production. While Ukraine has successfully scaled up UAV production, missile development requires specialized production lines, precision engineering, and secure manufacturing facilities, all of which are difficult to deploy in a conflict setting.
Significant progress
Despite the challenges, Ukraine has made significant progress in developing its own weapons. Several domestically produced systems are now in service. For example, the Neptune, originally an anti-ship missile, has been converted into a land-launched cruise missile, which is credited with sinking the missile cruiser Moskva in 2022.
The Hrim-2 hypersonic ballistic missile is expected to pass testing by the end of 2024, while the Palianytsia, a UAV-missile hybrid, entered serial production last December.
The Ukrainian military also recently received its first batch of Peklo (meaning “hell”) missile “hybrid” UAVs, a long-range munition with a range of 700 km and a jet engine capable of reaching speeds of 700 km/h. Developed in less than a year by Ukraine’s state defense corporation Ukroboronprom, the weapons have been put into service and are said to be able to compete with Russian cruise missiles at a fraction of the cost.
To further expand its arsenal, Kiev unveiled the Trembita lightweight cruise missile in February. Designed for long-range strikes, the Trembita offers a cheap alternative to Western munitions at just $4,000 a unit.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov has called domestic missile production essential for strategic independence. “Our priority is to develop domestic UAVs and long-range weapons, including ballistic missiles,” Rustem Umerov said.
With US military aid now cut, EU support uncertain and NATO membership out of reach, Ukraine's path to building a more powerful force is to expand its homegrown missile and UAV production.
By producing its own arsenal, Ukraine can counter US military cuts and external restrictions on the use of weapons to ensure proactive strike capabilities.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/ukraine-day-manh-san-xuat-vu-khi-cay-nha-la-vuon-sau-khi-my-cat-vien-tro-306516.html
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