South Korean troops march during a ceremony marking the 75th anniversary of Armed Forces Day in Seongnam in September 2023 (Photo: Reuters).
South Korea currently maintains a standing army of around half a million troops due to its wariness of North Korea. But with a birth rate of 0.78 children per woman, Seoul has no choice but to downsize, experts say.
"With the current birth rate, the future is already set. Force cuts are inevitable," said Choi Byung Ook, a professor of national security at Sangmyung University.
Mr. Choi pointed out that to maintain current troop levels, the South Korean military needs to recruit or call up 200,000 soldiers per year.
But by 2022, the country will have fewer than 250,000 babies born. If the male-female ratio is 50-50, when those children reach military age in 20 years, South Korea will have only about 125,000 men compared to the 200,000 needed.
Women are not required to serve in the military in South Korea, and female volunteers make up just 3.6 percent of the current force, according to the South Korean Ministry of National Defense.
Meanwhile, the number of newborns per year is forecast to decline further, to 220,000 in 2025 and 160,000 in 2072, respectively, according to Statistics Korea.
North Korean soldiers parade in Pyongyang in 2017 (Photo: AFP/Getty).
Get technology to compensate for quantity
Experts say South Korea must rely on science to defend against North Korea and turn its manpower crisis into a technological transformation.
"South Korean defense agencies have long advocated a shift from a manpower-centered military to a technology-oriented military," said Chun In-Bum, a former lieutenant general in the South Korean army.
In 2005, the South Korean Ministry of National Defense announced a plan to develop a science-technology-centered military by 2020, but progress has been limited so far.
"Despite efforts to convert, the military has no motivation to do so because with South Korean conscripts... human resources are still abundant," said Mr. Choi.
But Russia’s war in Ukraine has proven that on the modern battlefield, numbers are not enough. Ukraine’s use of UAVs and high-tech weapons supplied by its Western partners has inflicted heavy losses on Moscow’s numerically superior army.
South Korea has been focusing on integrating new technology into its combat units.
South Korea’s defense ministry said last year that it would transition to a manned-unmanned combined combat system (MUM-T) that leverages AI in stages. It also introduced the TIGER brigade — dubbed a “future unit” — that uses both humans and drones to carry out missions.
South Korea is also developing unmanned military equipment, including medium-altitude unmanned aerial vehicles (MUAVs) and unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs).
South Korean people watch North Korea's satellite-carrying rocket launch (Photo: AFP).
Soldiers are still indispensable
Still, experts say the human element remains central to the military. And Chun says South Korea needs to capitalize on its conscription system and reserve force.
“We need to improve our mobilization system, where we can tap into a large reserve force,” Chun said.
After South Korean men complete their mandatory 18-21 months of military service, they become reservists. For the next eight years, they are recalled to their units once a year to refresh their military knowledge. They are then required to undergo annual civil defense training until they turn 40.
The system currently helps South Korea have 3.1 million reserve troops.
South Korea is piloting a mechanism to call up some reservists for training for 180 days a year to strengthen their skills.
Another option is to increase the number of professional officers. These are volunteers who would serve longer periods of time to master advanced weapons “to avoid gaps in combat capabilities despite a reduction in active forces,” according to the 2022 white paper.
The South Korean military may move to increase recruitment of women amid a shortage of men, but the issue remains controversial (Photo: Reuters).
But the problem with this plan is that people are not enthusiastic.
According to data from the South Korean Ministry of National Defense, the number of applicants for non-commissioned officer positions has decreased over the years, from about 30,000 in 2018 to 19,000 in 2022.
"The military is having great difficulty recruiting excellent professional non-commissioned officers who, in 10-20 years, will form an excellent officer corps," said Choi.
The South Korean military may also move to increase recruitment of women.
Mr. Choi believes that requiring women to serve in the military could solve South Korea's problem, but there are too many obstacles.
"There are many complicated factors such as social costs and women having children, so I think this method does more harm than good," he said.
But Mr Chun still believes that attracting female volunteers is possible if the income level is attractive enough.
"With a salary of 2,000 USD/month, it would be a very good job. Because for the same job in real life, a woman can only be paid 1,500 USD," the expert said.
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