Vietnam is the leading country in Robusta coffee production. With favorable market conditions, coffee exports in 2025 are forecast to reach 7 billion USD, surpassing the historical peak.
Coffee industry benefits from price fluctuations
Domestic coffee prices have accelerated since the beginning of 2025 and are currently at an average of VND 132,500/kg - close to the historical mark of VND 134,000/kg (April 29, 2024).
Previously, at the beginning of 2024, coffee prices reached 70,000 VND/kg and increased to 80,000 VND/kg on February 15, 2024, then continued to surpass the threshold of 90,000 VND in mid-March 2024.
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| Coffee exports in 2025 are forecast to surpass historical peaks |
For Arabica coffee, the harvest season usually takes place from September to December, while Robusta coffee is usually harvested from November to February of the following year. Compared to many years ago, this year's harvest in Vietnam is much later. The factors that affect it are unusual weather that causes the rainy season to end late, frequent unseasonal rains, especially storm No. 10 in the East Sea in late December 2024 causing widespread rain in the Central Highlands; at the same time, coffee growers are replanting some new varieties that ripen later.
According to the normal rule, when coffee enters the harvest season, coffee prices will decrease. But this year, prices increased from the beginning of the harvest until the end and there are no signs of cooling down . This is a very rare case. Domestic coffee prices remain high, which is believed to benefit from fluctuations in world coffee prices.
Accordingly, after a slight decrease in the first days of 2025, world coffee prices have shown signs of recovery, with both Robusta and Arabica coffee products recording record prices over the past decades.
Notably, on February 14, on the New York Stock Exchange - USA, Arabica coffee prices continued to increase in 3 delivery terms in March, May and July 2025. A new record was set in the nearest delivery term, increasing by 160 USD/ton to 9,680 USD/ton, equivalent to 244.6 million VND/ton. Thus, over the past 15 years, Arabica coffee prices have increased by more than 60%. Meanwhile, on the London Stock Exchange, Robusta coffee prices for March 2025 delivery increased to 5,817 USD/ton, and for May delivery was 5,821 USD/ton.
The world’s two largest Arabica coffee markets, Colombia and Brazil, have been volatile, with concerns about supply shortages continuing to be a major factor. Arabica coffee futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange – a global benchmark – rose 70% last year and have risen another 37% this year on tight supplies.
Arabica prices were supported by a report from Brazil’s Cepea research group that many coffee farmers in Brazil are delaying sales in anticipation of higher prices. Another positive for coffee prices was the move by Conab, the Brazilian government’s agricultural forecasting agency, to cut its estimate of Brazil’s 2024 coffee production to 54.2 million bags, down 1.1% from its September 2024 forecast of 54.8 million bags.
The possibility of the US imposing tariffs on South American goods also pushes up prices for this commodity. Because then, Brazilian, Colombian, Peruvian coffee will become more expensive, creating an advantage for Vietnamese coffee. In addition, the local currencies of Brazil and Vietnam have appreciated again against the USD, supporting coffee prices.
According to Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai - Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, Colombia is the world's third largest producer of Arabica coffee, which means that the Arabica coffee market is mainly focused on Colombia, while Colombia mainly exports to the US market. Exports to the US are subject to a 25% tariff, which means that coffee products will be affected.
Currently, the price difference between Arabica and Robusta coffee is about 3,700 USD/ton. The fluctuations in major coffee producing countries in the world will have a positive impact on Vietnamese coffee - the world's leading producer of Robusta coffee. The continuous increase in Arabica coffee prices has caused roasters around the world to switch to buying Robusta coffee for blending.
In Sweden, for example, extreme weather is pushing coffee prices to multi-decade highs, with a bag of coffee forecast to increase by $1-$1.50 earlier this year and expected to rise at least twice as much by 2025. While Sweden and the Nordic countries favor Arabica, higher Arabica prices could prompt importers to seek more affordable Robusta supplies.
Forecast, coffee export in 2025 will reach 7 billion USD
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, in January 2025, coffee exports are estimated to reach 140 thousand tons with a value of 763 million USD, down 41.1% in volume but up 5% in value compared to the same period in 2024. The average export price of coffee in January 2025 is estimated at 5,450 USD/ton, up 78.5% compared to the same period in 2024.
Coffee prices have increased beyond businesses’ forecasts. To adapt to the current high coffee prices, coffee exporting businesses are forced to buy high and sell high according to market prices, rather than fixing prices early.
Mr. Phan Minh Thong - General Director of Phuc Sinh Joint Stock Company - commented that world coffee buyers will flock to Vietnam and Indonesia to buy coffee, so there is still room for price increases in the near future. This year, coffee exports are expected to earn more than 6 billion USD, even 7 billion USD. This is a positive signal.
In the context of high coffee prices as present, farmers will gain very high profits, but for businesses, this is both a challenge and an opportunity. Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai recommends that businesses should minimize buying from far away and selling from far away. At the same time, businesses need to create links with farmers to create high-quality gardens, aiming for sustainable development. Vietnamese businesses should promote Robusta coffee as a quality alternative with lower prices.
Coffee exports in 2024 will reach 1.3 million tons with a value of 5.62 billion USD, down 17.1% in volume but up 32.5% in value. The average export price of coffee in 2024 will reach 4,178 USD/ton, up 59.9% compared to 2023. Germany, Italy and Spain are the three largest coffee consuming markets of Vietnam in 2024 with market shares of 10.7%, 8.2% and 7.9% respectively. Coffee exports grew in all markets in the group of 15 largest export markets, with the strongest increase in the Malaysian market (up 2 times) and the Netherlands up 94%, and the lowest increase in the Belgian market with an increase of 9.3%. |
Source: https://congthuong.vn/xuat-khau-ca-phe-nam-2025-du-bao-vuot-dinh-lich-su-373938.html
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