In the discussion “Real estate investment focus in the new context” held on the afternoon of July 30, Ms. Nguyen Hoai An, Senior Director of CBRE Vietnam said: Recently, apartment prices in Hanoi have been continuously increasing, even increasing sharply. While apartment prices in Ho Chi Minh City tend to stagnate, this is causing the gap between the two markets to narrow.
Analyzing this further, Ms. Hoai An said: If in 2019, the price of apartments (primary supply) in Ho Chi Minh City was about 30% higher than in Hanoi, then by 2024 it had decreased to 5% - 7%. Similarly, in the secondary market, the price difference also decreased from 30% to about 10%.
Ms. Nguyen Hoai An, Senior Director of CBRE Vietnam, spoke at the seminar. (Photo: VV)
In the secondary market, in terms of area and scale in Hanoi, it shows that price increases occurred in almost all areas from the center to the suburbs, with an increase of 20-25%. The area around Ring Road 3 witnessed a more obvious price increase than the areas far from the center.
In Ho Chi Minh City, the correlation comparison also recorded a relatively moderate increase in secondary market prices. Except for central areas, most increased by only 1-2%.
According to indicators, the supply of this product is very limited in both Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. Especially in Hanoi, after experiencing strong fluctuations in 2022, the supply is now slowing down. The selling price of low-rise real estate corresponds to the growth of supply, with a lower price increase than that of apartments.
In the secondary market, in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi, annual growth is only 3-4%, even in Ho Chi Minh City, the average price has been adjusted down. The price movement of low-rise real estate reflects the current market focus on the apartment segment.
Faced with this situation, Ms. Hoai An said: It is increasingly difficult for people in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City to buy a house.
Ms. Hoai An cited evidence: Housing prices in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are on par with Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia), however, the income of Kuala Lumpur residents is 4 times higher than that of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. Thus, the ability to pay of people in Kuala Lumpur is much higher than that of cities in Vietnam.
“Overall, it seems that people's income growth has not kept up with the increase in house/apartment prices in big cities like Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi,” Ms. Hoai An emphasized.
In terms of prospects, in the future, the supply of apartments in Hanoi will be relatively abundant. Next, the supply of land (real estate attached to land) is expected to improve, when large urban area projects are opened for sale in the near future.
The new real estate supply for sale from 55 thousand products from now until 2026 will be concentrated towards Ring Road 3, expanding to the Northeast and West of the city, outside Ring Road 3.
The proportion of Hanoi real estate over the past 20 years, mainly located outside the Ring Road 3 area, has continued to increase. In 2025, this proportion will reach about 60% and continue to increase in the coming time.
The supply of apartment and land-attached real estate in Hanoi is forecast to continue to increase and improve from now until 2026. The forecast price, for both the primary and secondary market of apartments in Hanoi, continues to increase. This price growth rate is about over 20%/year - a figure never recorded before.
From 2026, this growth rate may stabilize, when a new price level has been created.
“Meanwhile, Ho Chi Minh City recorded a stable price growth of 5-6%/year. We can explain why the real estate price market in Ho Chi Minh City has almost not increased in the past 2 years, while the Hanoi area has increased strongly, by looking back at the price level established in this area from 2015-2019 with an increase of 15%/year and then stopped,” said Ms. Hoai An.
Source: https://www.congluan.vn/thu-nhap-cua-nguoi-dan-ha-noi-tphcm-hut-hoi-kho-duoi-kip-gia-nha-post305582.html
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