Global temperatures have soared in recent years as the world continues to burn planet-warming fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas. Worryingly, that trend shows no signs of slowing.
In its annual climate update, the WMO said there is a 66% chance that the planet will warm above 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in at least one year of the next five-year period from 2023 to 2027. There is also a 98% chance that at least one year in the next five-year period - and the five-year period as a whole - will be a record-breaking warm year for the planet.
Ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean warmed due to a strong El Niño in January 2016. (Photo: NOAA)
According to the WMO, breaching the 1.5C threshold set out in the Paris Climate Agreement may only be temporary, but it would be the clearest signal yet of how quickly climate change is accelerating – accelerating sea level rise, more extreme weather and the collapse of vital ecosystems.
Countries have pledged in the Paris Climate Agreement to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius – preferably 1.5 degrees Celsius – above pre-industrial levels. Scientists consider 1.5 degrees Celsius warming to be a key tipping point, beyond which the risk of severe flooding, drought, wildfires and food shortages around the world could increase significantly.
“This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C limit set in the Paris Agreement, which refers to long-term warming over many years. However, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will temporarily breach the 1.5°C limit with increasing frequency,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.
“The El Niño warming event is expected to develop in the coming months and this, combined with human-caused climate change, could push global temperatures to unprecedented levels. This will have far-reaching implications for human health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared,” added Mr. Petteri Taalas.
The hottest year on record so far was 2016, following a very strong El Nino event. El Ninos tend to increase temperatures the year after they develop, which could make 2024 the hottest year on record.
The world has already seen about 1.2 degrees Celsius of warming as humans continue to burn fossil fuels and pollute the planet. Despite three years of cooling from La Nina, temperatures have since spiked to dangerous levels.
The risk of temporarily exceeding the 1.5C mark has been steadily increasing since 2015, when the WMO put the risk of breaching the threshold at close to zero, the report said.
The WMO predicts that the annual average global near-surface temperature between 2023 and 2027 will be 1.1 degrees Celsius to 1.8 degrees Celsius higher than the average of 1850-1900 - a period before the sharp increase in planet-warming pollution from burning fossil fuels.
“Global average temperatures are predicted to continue to rise, moving us further away from the climate we are used to,” said Leon Hermanson, a Met Office scientist who led the report.
Climate change is causing serious consequences. (Photo: AFP/Getty)
Why is a 1.5°C increase important?
Scientists have long warned that the world needs to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius to avoid catastrophic and potentially irreversible changes.
Warming above this level would increase the risk of triggering major tipping points, including the destruction of coral reefs and the melting of polar ice caps, which would raise sea levels and devastate coastal communities.
In the US alone, 13 million people could be forced to relocate due to rising sea levels by the end of the century. For many low-lying Pacific island nations, warming above 1.5 degrees Celsius is a threat to their survival.
Rising temperatures are also increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including droughts, storms, wildfires and heat waves. Already this year, a series of temperature records have been broken around the world. In March, parts of Argentina struggled with temperatures as high as 10 degrees Celsius above normal. Heat records were also broken across much of Asia in April, while record-breaking temperatures scorched parts of the Pacific Northwest in May.
Limiting warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius could reduce the exposure of about 420 million people to extreme heat waves, according to NASA.
The opportunity to act is fading.
With every fraction of a degree of global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius, the effects will get worse. But that also means that every fraction of warming we do will help. Scientists believe that, with the window of opportunity closing, there is still time to reduce global warming by moving away from fossil fuels like oil, coal and gas and towards cleaner energy.
“This report [WMO report – Ed.] should be a rallying call to step up global efforts to tackle the climate crisis,” said Doug Parr, chief scientist at Greenpeace UK.
Many have also called for adaptation measures to prepare for climate impacts that are already taking place, such as building coastal walls to protect communities from rising sea levels.
World leaders are expected to gather at the United Nations COP28 climate summit in Dubai at the end of the year, where they will take a “global stocktake” – an assessment of their progress towards the goals agreed in the Paris Climate Agreement. There is certainly a long way to go to meet the targets of keeping global warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius, by cutting planet-warming pollution by more than 40% by 2030.
Hung Cuong (VOV.VN)
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