Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia have endured five consecutive dry spells since October 2020, with aid groups calling it the “worst drought in 40 years.” But while the causes behind the drought are complex, a team of international climate scientists from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group has found that greenhouse gas emissions have increased the chances of rain falling many times over.
“Climate change has made this drought exceptional,” said Joyce Kimutai, a climate scientist at the Kenya Meteorological Department who worked with WWA to pinpoint the role of climate change.
The drought in the Horn of Africa would not have happened without climate change. Photo: Reuters
Unlike extreme heat and heavy rainfall, scientists have had a harder time pinpointing the cause of climate change causing droughts around the world.
Using computer models and climate observations, the WWA team determined that climate change has made the long March-to-May rains in the Horn of Africa likely to be half as heavy, and the short October-to-December rains wetter.
“If you double the likelihood of severe drought, that really sets the stage for successive shocks that will wreak havoc on this region,” said climatologist Chris Funk at the University of California, Santa Barbara, who was not involved in the analysis.
In addition to less rain, a warming climate means more water evaporates from the soil and transpires from plants into the atmosphere.
Mai Anh (according to Reuters)
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