| Coffee prices fluctuate due to supply shortage concerns. Coffee export prices fall for the third consecutive session. |
According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), at the end of the trading session on January 4, Arabica prices fell another 0.38% to the lowest level in nearly a month, while Robusta prices improved with an increase of 1.13%, after three consecutive previous sessions of decline. The mixed developments in coffee export activities in major supplying countries have had different impacts on price movements.
According to preliminary data from the Honduran Coffee Institute (IHCAFE), the world's fourth largest Arabica producer exported more than 254,900 60-kg bags of coffee in December, up 30% compared to the same period in 2022.
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| Robusta to rise for first time in 2024 |
Previously, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said that global coffee exports in November reached 10.6 million 60kg bags, up 11.3% compared to the previous month; 3.6% compared to the same period last year. Analysts said that the increase in export volume in November was seasonal, but the current export volume is larger than usual.
In contrast, coffee businesses in Vietnam said that farmers are still limiting sales to wait for higher prices. In the socio-economic situation report for the fourth quarter of 2023, the General Statistics Office estimated that our country will export 190,000 tons of coffee in December, up from November but still 3.5% lower than December 2022.
According to the Import-Export Department, in the coming time, the Vietnamese coffee industry will continue to benefit as Robusta coffee prices will remain high, possibly even reaching a peak due to concerns about supply shortages.
“In 2024, there will be a lot of conflicting information affecting global coffee prices. In the first quarter of 2024, Robusta and Arabica coffee prices will remain high due to concerns about supply shortages and the lowest inventory in the past 12 years,” the Import-Export Department said.
In the domestic market, this morning (January 5), the price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands and the Southern provinces also increased by 400 VND/kg. Accordingly, domestic coffee is currently purchased at around 66,900 - 67,800 VND/kg.
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| Our country will export 190,000 tons of coffee in December. |
According to a report by the Vietnam Coffee - Cocoa Association (Vicofa), coffee output in the 2023 - 2024 crop year (from October 2023 to September 2024) is expected to decrease by 10% compared to the previous crop year to about 1.6 million tons due to the impact of climate change, increased intercropping area, and farmers investing in crops with high economic efficiency such as durian and fruit trees.
Along with the decrease in output, the inventory carried over from the previous crop to the new crop is also at its lowest level in years. If in the 2022-2023 crop year, the inventory carried over from the previous crop was about 160,000 tons, this year, this number is less than half, about 58,000 tons.
Although Vietnam has entered the peak coffee harvest season of 2023/2024, the situation of scarce supply still occurs while demand is quite large. Information about the estimated shortage of about 1.5 - 2.5 million bags of coffee under contract and need to be met from the current coffee harvest appeared late last year, causing coffee prices to skyrocket.
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