Arabica coffee prices have increased by nearly 20% since the beginning of the year. Will consumers react to such high prices?

Báo Quốc TếBáo Quốc Tế28/02/2025

Arabica coffee prices have hit a series of record highs this year and are still up nearly 20% since the start of the year, but traders say the market is concerned about consumer resistance to high prices, Reuters reported.


Coffee price today 28/2/2025

Global coffee prices fell across the board on both the London and New York exchanges. The market was pressured by a weakening Brazilian Real and concerns about falling demand due to high prices, causing Robusta to fall by $34 per tonne and Arabica to fall by 1.6 US cents per lb.

Domestic coffee prices returned to the threshold of 130,000 VND/kg on February 27, but failed to pull up the upward momentum again. Today, February 28, domestic coffee prices fell by 500 - 800 VND/kg, trading at around 127,700 - 130,000 VND/kg depending on the locality.

Currently, the imbalance between domestic and world markets is explained by business people as the price of coffee on the floor depends on financial investors while domestic coffee prices are real commodity transactions.

Coffee markets continued to fall after Brazil’s real fell to a three-week low against the dollar, triggering long liquidations in futures contracts. A weaker real encourages Brazilian coffee producers to boost exports.

According to Reuters , rabica coffee prices have hit a series of record highs this year and are still up nearly 20% since the start of the year, but traders say the market is worried about how consumers will respond to the high prices. However, arabica prices are still supported by concerns that supplies from top producer Brazil may fall this year. Traders say the weather in Brazil has been dry recently and meteorologists warn that the beans are smaller and the quality may decline.

It is currently the off-season for Brazilian coffee, and supplies are no longer abundant. Independent research companies report that Brazil has sold about 90% of the previous crop. Brazil's next harvest begins in July. According to the forecast of the Brazilian government agency Conab, the country's coffee output will be the lowest in the past three seasons, at only about 60 million bags (each bag weighs 60 kg), down 4.4% compared to the previous season.

According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the trading session on February 26, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for delivery in May 2025 decreased by 34 USD, trading at 5,376 USD/ton. The delivery in July 2025 decreased by 36 USD, trading at 5,337 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York floor, delivery term May 2025 continued to decrease by 1.60 cents, trading at 373.60 cents/lb. Meanwhile, delivery term July 2025 decreased by 0.85 cents, trading at 364.75 cents/lb. Trading volume is high on average.

Domestic coffee prices today, February 28, decreased by 500 - 800 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg

Average price

Medium

USD/VND exchange rate

25,355

+ 15

DAK LAK

129. 800

- 700

LAM DONG

127,700

- 800

GIA LAI

129,800

- 700

DAK NONG

130,000

- 500

(Source: giacaphe.com)

Vietnam Coffee - Cocoa Association (Vicofa) invites businesses to join the business delegation to set up booths at the 2025 Shanghai Sial International Food and Beverage Fair (May 19 - 21)

This activity aims to introduce and promote Vietnamese coffee products more widely to Chinese businesses and consumers. The delegation will also survey and contact supermarket systems and coffee shop chains in China.

The program's objectives are diverse, including: Supporting businesses that produce and export green coffee, roasted coffee, instant coffee, and blended coffee; Supporting businesses that produce and export green coffee, roasted coffee, instant coffee, and blended coffee, especially small businesses, to have the opportunity to continue meeting, introducing, and promoting their products to potential businesses at the Coffee Specialty Fair; Introducing and promoting Vietnamese coffee products more widely to Chinese businesses and consumers; Surveying and contacting to learn about supermarket systems and coffee shop chains in China;

Organize a display area to introduce products, prepare and try coffee products with great export potential for customers at the fair; Promote and connect small and medium enterprises, young entrepreneurs in the coffee industry with enterprises in one of the potential coffee consumption markets.

Each enterprise selected to participate in the project will be supported by the State with a part of the cost of renting a booth at the Fair and some costs of organizing trade programs according to the provisions of Circular No. 11/2019/TT BCT dated July 30, 2019 of the Ministry of Industry and Trade guiding the implementation of trade promotion activities to develop foreign trade under the National Program on trade promotion.

China is an emerging coffee market in the world and Vietnam has an advantage due to its proximity. The size of the Chinese coffee market is estimated to reach USD 2.06 billion in 2023. It is expected to reach USD 2.26 billion in 2028, registering a CAGR of 1.90% during the forecast period (2023-2028).

The Chinese coffee market is highly competitive, with a strong presence of both local and global players. Therefore, to maintain their position in the market, companies are introducing innovations in packaging and product offerings to meet the diverse needs of coffee consumers. They are also focusing on social media platforms and online distribution channels to market and brand their products.

As coffee consumption increases significantly, global and local companies are investing in expanding their production facilities across the country. Key players in the market are Starbucks Coffee Company, Nestle SA, Gloria Jeans, JAB Holding Company and Luigi Lavazza SPA.



Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-2822025-gia-ca-phe-arabica-tang-gan-20-tu-dau-nam-muc-gia-qua-cao-nguoi-tieu-dung-co-the-phan-ung-305873.html

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