The recent coup in Niger and conflicts from Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad to Sudan have created uncertainty about the future of China’s economic diplomacy in the Sahel and other parts of Africa.
On the morning of July 26, a group of soldiers from the Presidential Guard stormed the palace and arrested Niger President Mohamed Bazoum, citing the deteriorating security situation and poor socio-economic management.
The Chinese embassy immediately asked all overseas Chinese in Niger to be vigilant, increase protection, avoid going out, and take security precautions. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said that Beijing is closely monitoring the situation in Niger and called on relevant parties to act in the interests of the country and its people, and resolve differences peacefully through dialogue.
A bastion for Western security interests
While the United States and the European Union (EU) have expressed similar concerns to those previously expressed in Sudan, they view the situation in Niger with greater concern. As a cornerstone of the Western security architecture in West Africa, the country has received financial and security support to keep its fragile economy afloat.
Niger’s role as a bastion for Western security interests revolves around three core issues. First, the country is a bulwark against the spread of Islamist insurgencies in the Lake Chad region and near its borders with Burkina Faso and Mali.
Second, the West sees the country as a key EU ally in curbing irregular migration from sub-Saharan Africa. Finally, Niger is one of the few countries in the region that does not rely on Russia’s Wagner model to protect its interests.
Niger President Mohamed Bazoum is one of the few pro-Western leaders in Africa's Sahel region. Photo: naijanews.com
Although President Bazoum is a close ally of France and other Western nations, Beijing has been making inroads in Niger as well as with other countries in the region.
China is present in Niger as an economic partner in the exploitation of oil in the east of the country, said Rahmane Idrissa, a senior researcher at the Center for African Studies at Leiden University in the Netherlands. “This agreement will not be affected by the coup,” Idrissa said.
According to China's Ministry of Commerce, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) have invested $4.6 billion and $480 million, respectively, in Niger's oil and uranium industries. The country's uranium industry supplies about 5 percent of the world's highest-grade uranium ore. In addition to uranium, Niger also exports gold and oilseeds.
“Niger’s possession of important uranium deposits and other valuable resources, such as gold, raises concerns about the potentially far-reaching implications for the global economy,” said Mohammed Soliman, director of the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC.
According to Mr. Soliman, if the situation in the Sahel region escalates further, it could have significant consequences for China's economic interests and investments in Niger and neighboring countries.
“Instability could disrupt infrastructure projects, extractive industries and other business ventures in which China has invested, putting its economic interests in the region at risk,” Soliman warned.
Belt and Road Initiative under threat
What just happened in Niger is just one of a series of coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Chad and Sudan, an area known as the “African coup belt” in recent years.
Instability is growing in West Africa, a region already grappling with the impacts of climate change and soaring prices of staple commodities since the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
In 2022, Niger faces an unprecedented food crisis, with an estimated 4.4 million people out of a population of 26 million facing severe food insecurity.
These factors complicate China’s long-term infrastructure development, including the $4.5 billion, 2,000-kilometer Niger-Benin oil pipeline by China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and upgrading uranium mining facilities in northern Niger.
Since 2000, China has been increasingly keen to invest in Niger, especially as it expressed its intention to develop a crude oil pipeline project and exploit local uranium mines.
At the China-Niger Investment Forum held in Niamey in April, Beijing said it was willing to build an industrial park to develop agricultural products, manufacturing, mining and real estate.
Niger President Mohamed Bazoum received Mr. Jiang Feng, Chinese Ambassador to Niger on July 3. Photo: Twitter
While China’s energy sector is well-prepared to operate in a complex environment, its mining sector has borne the brunt of rising violence in Africa. China is therefore forced to choose between satisfying the need to revive its mainland economy and keeping its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on track.
According to Chinese experts, most of the overseas investment in the BRI will mainly involve reviving remaining projects, which are not affected by the deterioration of the security environment.
While Beijing is looking to consolidate its expanding footprint in Africa, the rapidly deteriorating security situation, particularly in the Sahel, is prompting Beijing to reconsider the viability of some infrastructure projects and move into safer areas.
Prolonged instability and conflict in the Sahel could impact China's broader strategic goals and influence in Africa, forcing China to reassess its engagement and presence on the continent, according to Soliman of the Middle East Institute.
While new projects worth a total of $36 billion and $8 billion respectively in the North African countries of Algeria and Egypt have been green-lit by Beijing, ongoing events from Niger to Sudan have left the future of China’s economic diplomacy in the Sahel uncertain .
Nguyen Tuyet (According to Think China, SCMP)
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