A Ukrainian military offensive into Russian territory could disrupt gas supplies to the EU. Located just a few kilometers inside Russia from the Ukrainian border, Sudzha is a key processing point for Russian gas exported to Europe.
According to information from VNA, according to Germany's international radio station Deutsche Well on August 20, the war between Ukraine and Russia is creating complex impacts on the important energy systems of both countries, with the Sudzha gas transit station becoming a new hot spot. Sudzha, located right next to the Ukrainian border in Russian territory, plays an essential role in transporting gas from Siberia through Ukraine to EU countries such as Hungary, Austria, and Slovakia.
A recent video from the Ukrainian military showed soldiers at Gazprom’s office at the Sudzha station, claiming they had full control of the facility. Russia denied this, saying Ukraine did not have full control. However, neither side appears to want to disrupt gas transit through Sudzha, provided the infrastructure is not damaged. This reflects the dependence and importance of energy supplies for both Ukraine and Russia, as well as European countries that continue to receive Russian gas through the system.
Sudzha is the last Russian transit station still operating on the gas route through Ukraine, after Kiev stopped receiving gas from the Sokhranovka station in May 2022. The fact that Ukraine did not immediately shut down the gas route is proof that Kiev does not want to cut off the flow of gas from Russia through its territory, at least until the current agreement expires at the end of 2024.
The five-year gas transit agreement, signed in 2019 between Russia’s Gazprom and Ukraine’s Naftogaz, is set to expire in December 2024. Although Kiev has said it does not want to extend it, both Russia and Ukraine have an interest in maintaining the flow of gas until the deal expires. For Ukraine, maintaining the flow is not only a source of transit revenue but also a way to demonstrate responsibility and reliability to EU countries, while Russia wants to maintain its revenue from gas exports.
Despite the escalation of the conflict with Ukraine and the sharp decline in Russian gas imports to Europe, the EU continues to receive gas from Russia via Ukraine, as well as other liquefied natural gas (LNG) sources. This dependence is a legacy of Europe’s years of relying on Russia for energy supplies, before efforts to reduce this dependence were accelerated after the conflict in Ukraine broke out.
Before the war, more than a third of the EU’s gas came from Russia. However, this share has dropped sharply, to around 8% in 2023. However, Russian gas still accounts for a significant portion, with the total share of Russian gas in the EU, including LNG, still reaching 15% in 2023. Much of this gas is supplied via pipeline and LNG, especially to countries such as Austria, Hungary and Slovakia. Notably, these countries, despite their close ties to Moscow, are also preparing for possible supply disruptions when the current agreement expires at the end of 2024.
Europe’s dependence on Russian gas has been sharply reduced so far, but it still exists, especially through routes like Turkstream and LNG. With the Ukraine route likely to close by the end of 2024, Turkstream could become the only significant route for Russian gas to Europe. At the same time, the increase in LNG imports from Russia, especially from countries like France, the Netherlands, and Spain, shows that Russia still has a place in the European energy market.
However, Europe is getting tougher with its restrictions on gas imports from Russia. The EU has decided to ban the transportation of Russian LNG at its ports from March 2025.
According to VNA
Source: https://www.sggp.org.vn/cuoc-tan-cong-vao-lanh-tho-nga-cua-ukraine-co-tac-dong-ra-sao-post755040.html
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