The European Commission's decision to re-arm Europe signals a shift in the bloc's security policy at a time when transatlantic relations are showing signs of...
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| British Prime Minister Keir Starmer chairs the European Summit on Ukraine peace at Lancaster House, London on March 2. (Source: EAP) |
Plan and calculate
At a recent summit meeting between some core members of the EU and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and EU and NATO leaders in London, EU President Ursula von der Leyen proposed a plan to rearm Europe. That massive plan stems from several basic reasons and purposes.
One , as French President Emmanuel Macron recently noted, Russia poses a security challenge to Europe, while also mentioning the role of France's nuclear arsenal in protecting EU member states.
The military conflict in Ukraine and the threat of expansion into Europe "urge" the West to continue maintaining NATO, increase defense budgets, call for strengthening relations, limit divisions among European allies and cracks on both sides of the Atlantic.
Second , the US shows signs of gradually abandoning Europe in its relations with Russia and in resolving the conflict in Ukraine, so the EU must quickly become strategically autonomous to protect itself and support Kiev against Russia.
Third , EU leaders and some member states believe that the rearmament plan will give Europe a new look, new strength, ready to confront Russia, "independent of the US"; commensurate with the role of one pole in the increasingly clear multipolar trend.
Fourth , this is a strategic card, creating a position for the EU in the bargaining with Russia and the US. Brussels feels that the door to negotiations to end the conflict in Ukraine is opening, so the EU needs to prove that it cannot be left out and create a position of strength for itself and for Ukraine, when negotiations take place.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump pointed out that Kiev's strategy of encircling Russia and its desire to join NATO forced Russia to launch a military campaign. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the conflict in Ukraine a proxy war between the US (and of course the West) and Russia.
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| The European rearmament plan could be a strategic card, giving the EU a bargaining chip in its negotiations with Russia and the US. (Source: Getty Images) |
Ambition and ability
The amount of money guaranteed for the European rearmament plan is about 800 billion Euros (840 billion USD) to modernize the armies of member states. This is the largest investment in military and defense of the EU to date. Of which, the common budget of the EU guarantees 150 billion Euros. The rest, EU member states themselves guarantee by increasing the annual defense budget to 1.5-2% of GDP or more.
Many countries will have to borrow from international financial and monetary markets. That means increasing public debt beyond the long-standing limit. Another difficulty is that the time needed for a large amount of money is urgent, to complete the plan in 4 years. If it is later, the opportunity will be missed.
The plan shows the EU's great ambition to achieve the four basic goals mentioned above. But the most important thing is that the members' capabilities are far below their ambitions. The leading country, Germany, is in economic recession and experiencing negative growth. Both Germany and France are facing complex political and social problems. Many EU member states are unwilling or unable to increase their defense budgets, and do not dare to increase their public debt because of the risks that the government has to bear.
Unforeseen consequences
Firstly, the possibility of increased political and social instability in EU member states cannot be ruled out. Many European countries are facing difficulties and challenges due to energy scarcity, high prices, reduced budget revenues, high public debt, and are about to face tariffs from the US.
Germany had to hold early elections, Prime Minister Olaf Sholz resigned, the far-right Alternative for Germany party rose to second place, with an unprecedented number of votes, putting Berlin at risk of division. Similarly, the French National Assembly voted no confidence in the government, forcing Prime Minister Michel Barnier to resign, the political scene is at risk of instability and crisis, these are obvious lessons. This situation can spread to other countries.
The second is the growing internal divisions within the EU. The union is already rift over aid to Ukraine, policy towards Russia and relations with the US... Some countries are not keen on the idea of a strong rearmament of Europe while NATO still exists.
That situation further deepens internal divisions and cracks on many issues, in a context where the EU is facing major challenges and needs consensus more than ever.
Third , it further strains relations with Russia, affecting the trend of negotiations. The nature of the European rearmament plan is to confront Moscow. After the French President's statement about the "Russian threat" and expanding nuclear capabilities, both sides made statements and harshly criticized each other. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Europe saying it must use nuclear weapons, preparing to use nuclear weapons against Russia "is of course a threat".
In many ways, Europe and Russia should not and cannot be separated. The strained EU-Russia relationship makes it difficult for Europe to have long-term stability in terms of security, economy, politics and diplomacy.
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| In many ways, Europe and Russia should not and cannot be separated. (Source: AA) |
Fourth , it deepens the transatlantic rift. President Donald Trump’s policy adjustments on Ukraine, relations with Russia and the imposition of tariffs on allies have left the EU feeling abandoned. The EU’s new move could deepen the EU-US rift.
Fifth , the European rearmament plan could fuel an arms race. The world situation, which is already hot due to the war in the Middle East, the conflict in Ukraine and potential dangers in the East Sea, the Taiwan Strait, the Korean Peninsula and many other areas, is getting hotter.
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The European Commission chief has hailed the €800bn plan to bolster the EU’s military capabilities as a historic step, but putting it into action will not be easy.
The article reflects the author's views.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/ke-hoach-tai-vu-trang-chau-au-toan-tinh-va-he-luy-306900.html
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