(Dan Tri) - Experts predict that from the second quarter of 2025, the real estate market will enter a period of prosperity with prominent segments including land plots and project villas.
At the event "Vietnam Real Estate Market Overview 2024 and Da Nang Focus" held on the morning of November 13, Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh, Deputy General Director of Batdongsan.com.vn, said that about 1.5 years ago, the amount of interest in the real estate market decreased sharply.
This is different from now when the recorded interest has increased sharply, market confidence has returned, investor sentiment has improved, thereby affecting investment decisions. He analyzed more clearly the real estate market context in the current cycle based on 3 factors.
Firstly, credit in the past 9 months reached 8.5%, the target of 14-15% for the whole year is considered feasible.
Second, the operating interest rate has been continuously reduced since the beginning of 2023, the lending interest rate is currently at 9-11%. Many banks are expected to continue to reduce deposit and lending interest rates. Third, in terms of policy, three important laws including the Housing Law 2023, the Real Estate Business Law 2023 and the Land Law 2024 have been passed and applied early.
"The real estate market's turning point will be around the third quarter of this year. But it should be noted that the market will not return directly after this time, but will go through four stages: exploration, consolidation, improvement and stabilization. At this stage, we still need to deal with issues such as legality, financial resources, etc.
The reason why the North has recovered recently is because the cash flow among the people is very large. As we have previously reported, the cash flow has shown signs of shifting from the South to the North since mid-2020 and since then, the cash flow has been lingering in this market a lot. The Hanoi market has taken the lead," said Mr. Quoc Anh.
A plot of land in the suburbs of Hanoi (Photo: Duong Tam).
According to this person, currently, about 140,000 billion VND of cash flow is stuck in real estate bonds and has not been released to the market. Many projects have not been cleared of legal issues for people to buy. Therefore, this problem needs to be solved before the market can move to the prosperous and stable stages.
Regarding the reversal roadmap by real estate type, he said that from the beginning of the year until now, the market has shown positive signs and entered a phase of exploration and small-scale liquidity.
The important factors that buyers prioritize when choosing real estate include meeting real estate needs, legal security, financial support, rental yield, and cost. Apartments are a prominent segment during this time.
The end of the year is the consolidation period of the real estate market. The important factors in choosing real estate are legality and currency. Private houses and townhouses are the prominent segments.
From the second quarter of 2025, the real estate market will be in a period of recovery. Products with high price growth, meeting real housing needs, having rental yields and attracting investment are focused on. Prominent segments include land plots and project villas.
The real estate market develops when supply is restored and prices increase. Buyers begin to pay attention to investment needs, not focusing on price and legal factors like in the gloomy times.
From the beginning of 2026 onwards, he predicts that the real estate market will enter a period of stability. At this time, liquidity will increase in various types. Speculation will develop strongly. Buyers' psychology at this time will prioritize finding investment opportunities in the hottest segments, with high price increases, attracting attention, and limited quantity.
Experts say that when the real estate market is booming, land and villas are the prominent segments (Illustration: Duong Tam).
Sharing more about the potential for price increases in the land segment, Mr. Quoc Anh said that in previous cycles, when the market moved to the development stage, for every 100 VND invested, the apartment only earned 136 VND. However, the same amount of money spent on land would earn up to 300 VND.
The above visualization shows that, at other stages of the market, apartments will still have good profit margins but will no longer be the most attractive type of investment. If the current market operates according to the rules of previous fluctuation cycles, after the "hot" increase, apartments will move sideways and grow more slowly than other segments such as land, villas, etc.
According to Mr. Nguyen Van Dinh - Chairman of the Vietnam Association of Real Estate Brokers (VARS), with the efforts of all entities, plus support from the new legal corridor, the market can develop more sustainably in 2025.
"This year we have seen a market recovery but with local characteristics - mainly focused on certain segments and regions, especially in Hanoi and the North.
By 2025, the recovery will likely be stronger, more widespread and not limited to just one region. It is expected that the Central and Southern markets will show signs of recovery with clearer recovery results, bringing a new look to the real estate market nationwide," the expert shared.
Source: https://dantri.com.vn/bat-dong-san/chuyen-gia-tiet-lo-thoi-diem-thi-truong-bat-dong-san-khoi-sac-20241113163236022.htm
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