In Hanoi, housing is becoming one of the biggest concerns for people, especially those with average incomes. Although the real estate market in the capital is growing, owning a house is still out of reach for many families.
Ms. Tran Mai Hoa (34 years old, from Phu Tho) currently works at a media company in Hanoi. Although her average salary is about 15 - 20 million VND/month, Ms. Hoa said that despite careful calculations, she still does not know when she will be able to own a house in Hanoi.
"The cost of living in Hanoi is very diverse, almost every time I go out I have to spend money. Even though I save as much as possible, I can only save about 6-7 million VND/month, equivalent to nearly 100 million VND/year. Meanwhile, with the current amount of 3 billion VND, buying an apartment in Hanoi's inner city is still not easy," she shared.
Not only Ms. Hoa, many young families in Hanoi are also facing difficulties with the problem of "settling down" in the context of constantly escalating real estate prices. Mr. Bui Minh Duc (29 years old, from Thai Nguyen) with his wife and children are currently renting a small apartment in Hanoi.
When they started looking into buying a house, Mr. Duc and his wife were confused because while their income had remained the same for many years, house prices in Hanoi had skyrocketed in a short period of time. Mr. Duc said that with the amount of money they saved each month after deducting living expenses, it was very difficult for them to buy a house, even in the suburbs.
A recent study from Batdongsan also shows that the rate of increase in housing prices in Vietnam is far exceeding income and workers, regardless of age, are having difficulty accessing it. Specifically, the growth in housing prices in Vietnam in the past 5 years has reached 59%, in which the average house price in Hanoi is currently 61 million VND per square meter and in Ho Chi Minh City is 57 million VND per square meter. The average income of a Vietnamese worker per month is about 7.5 million VND, increasing by 7% per year.
According to Batdongsan, if comparing average salary and house price, a worker in his or her 30s will spend about 25.8 years of income to buy an apartment (60 square meters) for about 3 billion VND, under the condition of a mobilization interest rate of 4.5%.
Mr. Nguyen Van Dinh - Chairman of the Vietnam Association of Real Estate Brokers (VARS) shared that 2024 is a pivotal year, creating a foundation to motivate the Vietnamese real estate market in 2025 to enter a new era.
In the first quarter of 2024, the market welcomed a large number of real estate brokers and real estate trading floors returning to "operate" the market when investors began to activate the implementation of a series of projects with increasingly large scales. Some projects with good implementation progress have officially received deposits. Newly opened projects, from land products, townhouses, villas, apartments, etc., all recorded good growth in interest, transactions and selling prices in both the primary and secondary markets.
In the second quarter of 2024, the recovery momentum of the real estate market continued to be maintained, with supply and transaction volume in the quarter growing strongly, respectively 3 and nearly 4 times higher than the same period in 2023. In particular, information about the 2024 Land Law, 2023 Housing Law, 2023 Real Estate Business Law and Clause 2, Article 209 of the Law on Credit Institutions will take effect 5 months earlier, further boosting confidence for entities operating in the real estate sector to be "ready to re-enter the game".
By the third quarter of 2024, legal regulations on housing, land and real estate business were officially "pressed" to take effect, eliminating the "before G hour" mentality of the entire market. The market also began to record signs of "heating up" with the story of land auctions in suburban areas of Hanoi "hotter" than ever. The heat of the market is also led by the apartment segment, with prices continuously increasing, establishing new levels in both the primary and secondary markets.
By the last quarter of the year, due to the "warming" of the market, many real estate investors changed their plans, "launched" products earlier than expected, with many preferential policies, helping the housing supply "exceed" forecasts.
In a general assessment of the real estate market in 2025, Associate Professor, Dr. Tran Kim Chung - Former Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management and Research affirmed that the Vietnamese real estate market will face 5 main risks including: International risks; macroeconomic risks; policy and mechanism risks; market risks; partner risks, however, these risks will be minimized.
In that context, this expert gives 3 scenarios for the real estate market this year.
Accordingly, the neutral scenario, where the market shows signs of heating up but not strongly - is the most likely and clearest scenario in the context of the end of 2024.
The positive scenario, the market booms, all segments grow strongly - however, this scenario is very unlikely to happen.
The worst case scenario, the one that no one wants and is unlikely to happen, is a bear market; however, it can still happen if external factors arise in the economy.
Faced with adverse impacts on the real estate market, Associate Professor Dr. Tran Kim Chung recommended continuing to promote the institutionalization of issues related to the real estate market, especially tax tools and derivative financial instruments.
At the same time, urgently pass the Law on Real Estate Tax. In addition, realize and implement mechanisms, such as reclaiming land adjacent to infrastructure works to auction, building according to planning to create capital for infrastructure development. Synchronize planning in provinces and centrally run cities, the most important thing is to synchronize planning and place it on the land parcel map...
2025 is expected to be an important milestone for the real estate market.
Sharing with Lao Dong, Ms. Do Thi Thu Hang, Senior Director, Consulting and Research Department, Savills Hanoi, commented that entering 2025, the real estate market has a basic legal framework including the Land Law 2024, Housing Law 2023, Real Estate Business Law 2023; guiding documents; land price list has been issued and applied for 2025 for large cities such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.
The real estate market in 2025 will enter a new development cycle. In the Hanoi market, the apartment segment for sale will still be the market leader. The selling price in the primary market is expected to increase further in the first half of the year because the mid-high-end segment still accounts for the majority of this market. In addition, the secondary market will see a price slowdown.
Mr. Tran Van Binh, Vice President and General Secretary of the Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association, said that in order for the Vietnamese real estate market in 2025 to develop in a safe, healthy and sustainable direction, investors need to ensure prices are suitable for the purchasing power of the market, instead of focusing on short-term profits.
Mr. Binh emphasized that the residential real estate segment will still lead the recovery process in 2025, but there are still many negative factors such as weak and local supply, selling prices in big cities, especially Hanoi, continuously setting new high levels; severe shortage of affordable housing... Social housing supply cannot "breakthrough" in the short term, but positive information about this segment has somewhat added confidence to home buyers in 2025.
According to the Vice President and General Secretary of the Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association, the commercial real estate market will maintain stable growth in 2025 with important support from the demand of foreign investment capital, which is constantly increasing in a selective direction.
Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh - real estate expert - stated that from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the second quarter of 2025 is the period when the market enters a consolidation phase. Investors are gradually more confident in the development prospects of the real estate industry. The apartment segment will now give up its focal position to private houses and townhouses.
After this period, the market will move towards a period of recovery, expected to start from the second quarter of 2025 to the fourth quarter of 2025. At this time, investors will no longer place too much emphasis on selling price and legal factors like when the market was gloomy. Instead, the potential for price increase is the key to deciding to spend money. Therefore, profitable segments such as land and project villas are also given special attention by investors.
Mr. Pham Duc Toan, General Director of EZ Vietnam Real Estate Investment and Development JSC, commented that never before have real estate businesses had such an optimistic outlook and strong confidence in the market as in 2025.
According to Mr. Toan, the determination in directing economic development from the highest level, along with a series of resolutions and decrees issued to promote the real estate market in particular and the economy in general, has created positive conditions for the sustainable development of this sector.
Laodong.vn
Source: https://laodong.vn/emagazine/bat-dong-san-2025-co-hoi-but-pha-trong-ky-nguyen-moi-1447959.ldo
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