Experts from the FIDT consulting company said that the resistance zone of 1,280 - 1,300 points has lasted for more than a year, with a very large volume of accumulated stocks, so it is not easy for the Vn-Index to break through the 1,300 mark, heading towards the 1,320 - 1,350 point zone.
The market continued to maintain a positive trading week due to expectations that the FED will begin a roadmap to reduce interest rates in the next meeting, and the pressure on exchange rates will cool down quickly. Although the last two sessions of the week had fluctuations in the session due to profit-taking pressure, demand was quite good, so the VN-Index closed the week at 1,284.32 points, up 33.09 points.
Liquidity on both exchanges this week improved significantly compared to the previous trading week when the matched volume increased by 20.6% on HOSE. Foreign investors turned to net selling with -751 billion VND on HOSE, focusing on VHM (-408.7 billion VND), net selling HPG (-639.8 billion VND), HSG (-301.9 billion VND) and TCB (-175.3 billion VND)... in the opposite direction, net buying FPT (+631.6 billion VND), CTG (+360.4 billion VND)...
The highlight of the information was the Fed's Monetary Policy at the meeting in Jackson Hole last weekend. In the main message of the meeting, FED Chairman Powell confirmed the reversal of Monetary Policy, after a cycle of tightening interest rates for nearly 2 years.
After the July unemployment figures were much worse than expected (up from 4.1% to 4.3%), the Fed made a move to prioritize the health of the labor market, which was the main reason for cutting interest rates. The medium-term US inflation trend is likely to return to the 2.0% target area, so the task of ensuring the health of the economy will be given more priority.
According to FIDT Joint Stock Company (a company specializing in investment consulting and asset management) , the FED will definitely cut interest rates by 0.25% in the September meeting. The speed of the FED's interest rate cuts will be very fast, with expectations of 5-6 interest rate cuts of 0.25% in the next 6 months. It is possible to expect the FED to continuously cut interest rates in meetings until March 2025. The trend of short-term and medium-term USD interest rates (2-year - 5-year - 10-year government bond yields) all decreased rapidly in the short term.
The FED's reversal of monetary policy from September will open up a great opportunity for the global stock market to surpass its peak, starting to expect a new growth cycle, FIDT commented.
Returning to the stock market, the trading session on August 16 was a standard “FTD” explosive session, activating the return of cash flow in the market. The uptrend of VN-Index was very smooth after the explosive trading session above, from the 1,230 point area to approaching the resistance zone of 1,280 - 1,300 points in just 6 trading sessions.
Cash flow is quickly returning to the market, distributed evenly to most sectors very well, because trading conditions are favorable in the short term (market conditions are very low risk). Strong cash flow helps absorb short-term profit-taking pressure well, such as the current leading stocks Real Estate and Securities continuously absorb profit-taking pressure very well, even after increasing 25% - 30% from the bottom.
FIDT experts believe that the large cash flow entering the market will help maintain the stable upward trend of the VN-Index. In addition, the volume has increased very strongly in the leading stocks, showing a high probability that the 1,180 - 1,230 point area is the mid-term bottom of the market, which is a very strong support in the short term.
However, VN-Index has approached the resistance zone of 1,280 - 1,300 points for the first time in 2 months, showing that the probability of a technical correction (30 - 50 points) may occur if the cash flow is not enough to absorb the selling pressure at the peak. A technical correction at the resistance zone will have few predictable signals, apart from some short-term technical factors.
Leading stocks such as Securities and Real Estate have both increased quite rapidly in the short term (20% - 30% in 3 weeks), as well as impressive increases of 15% - 20% in many other strong stock groups.
Accordingly, FIDT believes that the market will face continuous short-term profit-taking pressure in the coming time. VN-Index approaches the 1,280 - 1,300 point zone for the first time after a very deep and long decline. The resistance zone of 1,280 - 1,300 points has lasted for more than a year, with a very large volume of accumulated stocks. Therefore, the scenario of VN-Index breaking through the 1,300 point mark, heading towards the 1,320 - 1,350 point zone is not easy.
Therefore, FIDT notes to investors that VN-Index will have a short-term technical correction, creating an accumulation price base in the 1,260 - 1,280 point range, before breaking through to the medium-term target of 1,380 - 1,420 points in the next 3 - 6 months. With the characteristics of very strong short-term cash flow and low risk, the technical corrections of VN-Index will not be deep thanks to the large waiting cash flow in the market.
The market may continuously change sectors in the coming period to help the leading stock group accumulate, and is a favorable opportunity to spread to other sectors.
FIDT experts suggest trends that attract short-term investment cash flow, including:
The recovery trend of the real estate market after the recession in 2022 - 2023, related to the Trio related to the real estate market; FIDT suggests real estate stocks, including PDR, DXG, KDH.
Market trend for upgrading at the end of the third quarter of 2024, FIDT experts suggest securities stocks: HCM, VCI, when authorities are rushing to approve the important non-prefunding mechanism.
The trend of promoting public investment, according to the Government's key public investment policies, will last for the period 2024 - 2025.
In addition, in the Q3/2024 monitoring list, FIDT selected a number of potential industries and stocks, based on a number of certain industry trends: (1) Textile and garment industry (TNG, MSH, STK), directly benefiting from very high export demand in the second half of 2024; (2) a number of other potential industries, such as: Hydropower - Renewable energy (HDG, TTA, REE), Livestock (FIDT suggests: DBC), Plastics (FIDT suggests: AAA), Retail (DGW)...
Enterprises with a business development peak in 2024 - 2025, safe valuation zone, continue to be very reasonable investment options, such as: Banking (HDB, STB), Consumer (FIMSN), and Industrial Real Estate (KBC).
According to Agriseco Research's expert perspective on the market and investment outlook for next week, VN-Index broke out of the 20-day MA, corresponding to the 1,230-point zone with sudden liquidity in the last session of the week. This happened after the RSI indicator diverged from the most recent peak on July 31, indicating that an uptrend may be forming. In the context of the market lacking supportive information, it is predicted that VN-Index will still have the momentum to increase in the first session of the week but will gradually slow down and may re-test the support zone of 1,245 (+-5) points in the following sessions.
Agriseco Research recommends investors to restructure their portfolios during early market recoveries. In addition, wait for the opportunity to increase the proportion of stocks again when VNIndex completes testing the above support zone.
Source: https://baodautu.vn/goc-nhin-ttck-tuan-26-308-ap-luc-chot-loi-ngan-han-d223264.html
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