Import and export in 2023: Many bright spots

In the context of inflation and financial tightening in many countries, causing consumer demand to decline, in addition to the efforts of businesses, timely support from the Government and ministries and branches, including the active role of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, has helped import-export activities in 2023 record many bright spots.

Record trade surplus

The latest report from the Ministry of Industry and Trade shows that the total import-export turnover of the whole country after 11 months reached 619.2 billion USD, of which, export turnover was 322.5 billion USD, import turnover was 296.7 billion USD. The brightest spot in import-export activities is that the trade balance continues to record a trade surplus for the 8th consecutive year with a surplus after 11 months reaching 25.83 billion USD - an impressive increase of up to 250% compared to the same period in 2022. This result contributes positively to the balance of payments, helping to increase foreign exchange reserves, stabilize exchange rates and other macroeconomic indicators of the economy.

In the context of the world economy continuing to grow slowly, the world's total demand has decreased, Vietnam's goods export activities continue to overcome difficulties. Although it has not yet achieved a year-on-year increase, the decline continues to narrow. Specifically, the decline in exports has narrowed from a decrease of 12% in the first half of 2023 to 5.9% in the 11 months of 2023. In addition, export activities have done well in diversifying markets. In the context of a decrease in exports to major markets, export turnover to African countries, Eastern Europe, Northern Europe, and West Asia has increased; The export decline in some key markets continues to narrow (the export decline to the US narrowed from 22.6% in the first half of 2023 to 13.1% in 11 months of 2023; the EU from 10.1% to 8.1%; South Korea from 10.2% to 4%...).

Despite many difficulties, import and export in 2023 will still grow positively. Photo: Can Dung

In particular, recent export activities have recorded great efforts by ministries and branches, including the Ministry of Industry and Trade, to effectively manage and clear export activities to China. Thanks to that, basic goods are not congested, even during peak seasons, contributing to increasing export turnover to the Chinese market. This is also the only market among Vietnam's major export markets to achieve positive growth (our country's exports to China reversed from a decrease of 2.2% to an increase of 6.2% after 11 months), while other major markets all decreased.

In addition, the domestic economic sector continues to make efforts to maintain and expand export markets in the context of many difficulties in the global economy. The export decline of this sector (down 2.2%) is much lower than the export decline of the foreign-invested sector (including crude oil), down 7.1% in 11 months of 2023. Regarding key export commodity groups, the Ministry of Industry and Trade pointed out that in 11 months of 2023, there were 33 items with export turnover of over 1 billion USD, of which 7 items had export turnover of over 10 billion USD, accounting for 66% of total turnover. Many groups of agricultural products, rice, and fruits have taken advantage of the opportunity to open the market and increase prices to boost exports. "The structure of export goods continues to improve in a positive direction, reducing the content of raw exports, increasing the export of processed products and industrial products, creating conditions for Vietnamese goods to participate more deeply in the global production and supply chain. The group of processed industrial products continues to account for the majority (85%) in the structure of export turnover" - the Ministry of Industry and Trade pointed out.

On the other hand, import activities basically meet the demand for raw materials for production and consumption. Imports of goods for production for export and essential goods increased, accounting for 88.5% of total turnover; imports of goods not encouraged for import accounted for only 5.7% of total turnover.

Overcoming existing problems and limitations

Although the decline in exports continues to narrow, the Ministry of Industry and Trade affirms that it has not basically recovered compared to the same period last year. Therefore, exports in 2023 are estimated to reach about 354 - 355 billion USD, down 4.5% compared to the same period last year, not meeting the planned target (up 6%). Export turnover to most key markets decreased although the decline is gradually narrowing.

Vegetables and fruits are key export items. Photo: Doveco

In addition, the dependence on the foreign direct investment (FDI) sector in exports remains high as the export turnover of FDI enterprises, including crude oil, still accounts for about 73% of the country's total export turnover (11 months of 2023). The added value in exports has not been as expected. The export capacity of 100% Vietnamese-owned enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, is not high.

Export activities have begun to show positive signs of recovery since the last months of 2023. In 2024, along with the effective exploitation of existing Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), the conclusion of negotiations and implementation of FTAs ​​with new markets such as Israel and the UAE will create more opportunities to promote trade, investment and especially Vietnam's exports. Good political relations, consolidated and upgraded with major partners such as China, the United States and the EU, create a premise for economic, trade and investment cooperation to be expanded. With such developments, the Ministry of Industry and Trade strives to increase total export turnover by about 6% in 2024 compared to 2023. The trade balance will maintain a trade surplus (expected to be about 15 billion USD).

To achieve this result, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will promote negotiations, signing of new agreements, commitments, trade links, signing of FTAs, trade agreements with other potential partners (UAE, MERCOSUR...) to diversify markets, products, and supply chains. In addition, support businesses to take advantage of FTA commitments, especially the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), Vietnam - EU FTA (EVFTA), Vietnam - UK FTA (UKVFTA) to boost exports, through propaganda on rules of origin and issuance of Certificates of Origin, opportunities and ways to take advantage of opportunities from the agreements. At the same time, coordinate with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development to negotiate with China to open more export markets for other Vietnamese fruits and vegetables... Improve efficiency and regulate the speed of customs clearance of import and export goods at border gates between Vietnam and China, especially for seasonal agricultural and aquatic products; quickly and strongly shift to official exports.

In 2024, strive for total export turnover to increase by about 6% compared to 2023; maintain trade surplus (expected trade surplus of about 15 billion USD).

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