The Camp David event represents an effort to institutionalize cooperation between Washington and two important allies, but challenges remain from within and without.
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| US President Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol during a meeting on the sidelines of the NATO Summit in Madrid in 2022. (Source: AFP/Getty Images) |
Camp David in Frederick County, Maryland, has long been not only the retreat of the US President, but also holds a special place in the history of the United States and the world. Located 100 km northwest of Washington DC, the resort, which is somewhat isolated from the outside world, has witnessed many high-level meetings and historic negotiations. Among them, we can mention the discussions between US President Franklin Roosevelt and British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, or peace negotiations between the leaders of Israel and its Arab neighbors.
This week, the city will witness another important event. On August 18, US President Joe Biden will hold his first separate, trilateral summit with his South Korean counterpart Yoon Suk Yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Officials from the three countries hope the meeting will go down in history by strengthening ties between the US and its two key allies.
For the common good
In the current context, the challenges from China, Russia and North Korea are bringing the three countries closer together. US Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emmanuel affirmed that the strategic visions of the three countries “have never been closer”.
The meeting will focus on defense connectivity. The U.S., Japan and South Korea may also discuss technology and the energy and semiconductor supply chain. A statement is likely to be issued outlining shared concerns in defense and economic security.
While the moves fall short of a formal alliance, they mark a strategic shift in the Indo-Pacific region. Security cooperation had stalled under former President Moon Jae-in, while Japan-South Korea intelligence-sharing efforts were frequently threatened by tensions over historical issues.
However, since Yoon Suk Yeol took office in 2022, South Korea has sought to put the issue aside. In May, a Japanese destroyer caused controversy when it flew the Japanese imperial flag during a port visit to South Korea. However, Seoul has since cooled down the incident, a sign that security concerns take precedence over historical issues for the country. Amid warming relations, with a visit to South Korea from May 7-8, Kishida Fumio became the first Japanese prime minister to visit Seoul in a decade.
Now, the three countries’ defense forces are stepping up coordination. In June, the defense ministers of the United States, Japan, and South Korea met and pledged to share real-time intelligence on North Korean missile launches. Close defense cooperation would send a signal to Pyongyang and other countries that “we are ready to respond to any attack,” said Wi Sung Lac, a former South Korean diplomat who negotiated the North Korean nuclear issue.
More importantly, the content of the trilateral discussions is increasingly expanding. Christopher Johnstone of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), based in Washington DC (USA), commented: "They are not only talking about the Korean Peninsula, but have expanded to the Indo-Pacific region." Japan and the US consider South Korea a "key player" in Southeast Asia, where both want to control China's influence. Warming relations also create conditions for Seoul and Tokyo to discuss cooperation on semiconductors. According to some sources, Samsung Group (South Korea) is studying to open a new chip factory in Japan.
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| Camp David (USA), the retreat of the US President, has witnessed many historic diplomatic events of the United States and the world. (Source: Bloomberg) |
There are still barriers.
However, everything was not smooth sailing.
First , China is closely watching the trilateral summit. Beijing officials are pushing to resume high-level dialogue with Tokyo and Seoul. At a recent forum in Qingdao, China, Wang Yi, director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Communist Party of China, told guests from Japan and South Korea: “No matter how much you dye your hair blonde or how straight your nose is, you will never become Europeans or Americans.” However, China’s tough stance is unlikely to make Japan and South Korea separate from the United States.
Second , there is a limit that the three sides have not been able to overcome. Mutual suspicion between Japan and South Korea has not subsided. Japan’s constitution makes it difficult for the country to join new military alliances. Meanwhile, for South Korea, Japan’s military presence on the Korean Peninsula remains controversial. Even sharing intelligence “is very difficult for the people of this country to accept,” said Choi Eun Mi, an expert at the ASAN Research Institute (Korea) in Seoul.
Third , Washington, Tokyo, and Seoul have different security priorities. For South Korea, the focus continues to be on North Korea. Meanwhile, Japan appears more concerned about China and the possibility of a potential conflict across the Taiwan Strait, with South Korea not yet up for discussion.
In addition, the US is looking to launch trilateral discussions on extended nuclear deterrence, pledging to use nuclear forces to defend its allies. However, the other two countries' approaches to the nuclear issue are different. Professor Sahashi Ryo of the University of Tokyo (Japan) commented: "Japan wants extended nuclear deterrence to attract as little attention as possible, while South Korea pursues the opposite goal." Both are concerned about US trade policy. However, South Korea is not ready to isolate China.
| “No matter how much you dye your hair blonde or how straight your nose is, you will never become European or American.” (Wang Yi on the increasingly close relations between Japan and South Korea with the US and Europe) |
Finally , domestic issues also threaten to reverse the diplomatic efforts of the three countries. Most South Koreans agree on improving relations with Japan, but many believe that Seoul has not adequately resolved historical issues with Tokyo, especially the proposal related to the forced labor issue during colonial times. Meanwhile, pressure from conservatives within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) makes it harder for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to make concessions. If the Democratic Party of Korea (DP), which has taken a hard line on Japan, comes to power in 2027, Yoon Suk Yeol’s efforts could be in vain. A second term for former President Donald Trump could seriously impact this trilateral relationship.
Therefore, the most important goal of the upcoming summit is to shape the achievements that have been achieved in the past. Mr. Sahashi commented that the leaders need to institutionalize the relationship, build a solid cooperation framework that is difficult to be reversed by their successors.
This would mean holding more frequent trilateral meetings, and even establishing a formal hotline between the leaders. As Christopher Johnstone says, if these measures are announced at Camp David in the coming days, it would be a commitment “that is harder for the future leaders of the three countries to break.”
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