In the short term, Mr Trump's wave of tariffs could benefit Russia by replacing the US as China's energy supplier.
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| The tit-for-tat tariffs between the US and China could boost demand for some Russian products. (Source: Alwaght) |
Shortly after taking office, US President Donald Trump announced tariffs on a series of major trading partners of the country such as China, Mexico, Canada and the European Union (EU). According to Mr. Trump, this move will help address the inequality in global trade, forcing the world's largest economy to buy more goods from foreign countries than it sells to them.
On March 3, the White House owner confirmed that he would apply a 25% tax on imported goods from Canada and Mexico.
"Tit-for-tat" tariffs
Meanwhile, China has responded by announcing new tariffs on US agricultural products, scheduled to take effect on March 10.
Under the latest measures from the country of a billion people, a 15% tariff will be imposed on US products including chicken, wheat and corn. Other products such as soybeans, beef, pork, seafood, dairy products and fruits and vegetables will be subject to a 10% tariff.
Beijing has also imposed a 15% border tax on coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from Washington in retaliation for Trump’s tariffs. China also imposed a 10% tariff on US crude oil and cars.
Beijing's move is in response to President Trump's imposition of an additional 20% tariff on goods from Asia's largest economy, on top of the tariffs already imposed. This means Washington's cumulative tariffs on some goods from Beijing could reach 45-50%.
How can Russia benefit?
According to The Moscow Times , the tariffs are essentially hitting American companies that want to buy goods from China and vice versa.
This creates an incentive for the world's two largest economies to actively promote domestic goods or seek new trading partners.
The tit-for-tat tariffs between the US and China could also boost demand for some Russian products.
Agricultural exporters - including Russia - could benefit from the trade rift between the world's two economic "engines", said Andrei Sizov, director of consultancy SovEcon.
"It is unclear how long the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing will last. But if it lasts, Russia will of course be one of the countries that benefits. At that time, perhaps the country of a billion people will return to buying wheat from the birch country," Andrei Sizov predicted.
At the same time, Russia can also increase energy exports to China.
For example, the world's second-largest economy could buy LNG from Moscow, instead of Washington, or import gas through Russian pipelines via the Power of Siberia pipeline, said Natalia Milchakova, a senior analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
However, there is a limit to how much oil and gas Russia can supply to China. And more importantly, Beijing has other options such as buying oil and gas from Myanmar or Kazakhstan.
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| The world's largest economy could lift sanctions on Russian banks if it signs a favorable deal on rare earth metals. (Source: The Moscow Times) |
Beijing "shakes hands" with Moscow, loosens sanctions
Meanwhile, some have theorized that Mr. Trump's tariffs could cause major economies like China to limit trade with the United States and possibly "go easy" on sanctions against Russia.
The Biden administration imposed broad oil sanctions on Russia in January 2025, before leaving office. The sanctions applied not only to US companies but also to third-country companies that violated Russian sanctions.
Analyst Alexander Franchuk predicts that the US-China trade conflict could increase the likelihood that Chinese companies will agree to buy Russian oil, despite the risks of sanctions.
The White House recently directed the State and Treasury Departments to draft proposals to ease restrictions on certain Russian entities and individuals, including key businessmen. These proposals will soon be discussed with Russian representatives as part of a strategy to reset relations between the two countries.
Turkish economist Bartu Soral predicts that the world's largest economy could lift sanctions on Russian banks if it signs a favorable deal on rare earth metals.
He pointed out that by 2024, the world's largest industry will be semiconductor and microchip manufacturing, with a market value of $8 trillion. And China is the leader in this field, dominating the market for strategic minerals, including rare earths.
According to the US Geological Survey (USGS), Russia has the fifth largest reserves of rare earth metals in the world, after China, Brazil, India and Australia. The USGS estimates that Russia's rare earth metal reserves are 3.8 million tons.
“We now see the US seeking cooperation with Russia in the field of minerals, rare earths. If an agreement between the two countries is reached at the current stage, exceptions will be made to the sanctions against Moscow,” the Turkish economist predicted.
Of course, Russia also faces certain difficulties when it comes to the trade policy of the world's leading powerful country.
In terms of energy, China has many options to target, such as the oil and gas deposits of Myanmar and Kazakhstan.
Ilya Seredyuk, Governor of the Kemerovo region, said Moscow would have difficulty increasing coal exports to Asia's largest economy if Beijing imposed tariffs on Washington's coal.
And the trade war between the US and China will certainly hurt global economic growth in the long term. This could reduce global demand for energy resources, affecting oil and gas revenues - one of the important pillars of Russia.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/thue-quan-cua-my-rung-chuyen-the-gioi-xuat-hien-nguoi-huong-loi-bat-ngo-306553.html
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