Coffee and durian prices continue to increase
In the first month of 2024, the fruit and vegetable industry continued to demonstrate its pioneering position in both the domestic and export markets. In the first half of 2024, fruit and vegetable exports reached nearly half a billion USD, an increase of over 89% over the same period last year. In Thap Muoi District (Dong Thap), Mr. Nguyen Dung, a durian grower, said that the price of "bulk" durian at the garden has increased to 147,000 VND/kg, while grade 1 reached 180,000 VND/kg. "From now until May - June, when Thailand enters the harvest season, off-season durian is only available in Vietnam, always "at" the price of 150,000 VND/kg or more," Mr. Dung said optimistically.
According to Mr. Nguyen Van Muoi, Deputy Head of the Southern Branch - Vietnam Gardening Association, many businesses have recently contacted him to find sources of durian, coconut, watermelon, jackfruit, mango, avocado, passion fruit, etc. for export because the demand is very high. This is also the basis for Mr. Nguyen Thanh Binh, Chairman of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association (Vinafruit), to be confident in the goal of reaching the historic milestone of 6.5 billion USD in 2024 for fruits and vegetables, equivalent to an increase of nearly 1 billion USD compared to 2023.
Prices of many agricultural export products such as coffee have increased sharply.
Coffee also had a dream start. Updated to the end of January 28, in some localities in the Central Highlands such as Dak Nong and Dak Lak, the price of green coffee beans had reached 76,500 VND/kg, the lowest in Lam Dong was 75,500 VND/kg, nearly double the price of about 41,500 VND/kg in the same period last year. The reason for the sharp increase in the price of Central Highlands coffee was that the world market last week closed at a historic milestone, with robusta coffee futures for delivery in March reaching 3,269 USD/ton. Compared to the previous week, the price of coffee increased by about 140 USD/ton. In addition to the imbalance in supply and demand, the sharp increase in coffee prices was also due to the tense situation in the Red Sea, which increased delivery costs and extended the delivery time by about 3 weeks. The latest update from the General Department of Vietnam Customs shows that in the first half of January 2024, Vietnam's coffee exports reached nearly 96,000 tons, worth 283 million USD, a sharp increase in volume and value compared to the same period last year.
The brilliant end of 2023 continues to create momentum for Vietnamese rice to affirm its No. 1 position in terms of price on the world market. In the first half of January 2024, although the amount of exported rice was low due to the winter-spring rice harvest not yet coming, rice export turnover still increased by 18%, equivalent to nearly 20 million USD due to high prices. According to many businesses, from now until the end of the winter-spring crop, rice prices are forecast to remain high because world demand is increasing sharply while supply is scarce. Recently, Indonesia opened a bid for an additional 500,000 tons of rice for delivery in the first quarter of 2024 and this market is expected to import up to 3 million tons of rice this year. Around the world, food demand continues to increase, guaranteeing the price of Vietnamese rice, one of the leading rice suppliers.
Breakthrough in FDI capital and number of newly established enterprises
The economic picture that started the year "like a dream" also had the contribution of foreign direct investment (FDI) in January 2024 with 2.36 billion USD, equivalent to an increase of more than 40% over the same period last year. Notably, newly registered investment capital still increased sharply while adjusted investment capital and capital contribution to buy shares decreased. Specifically, 190 new projects were granted new investment registration licenses, an increase of more than 24%, with a total registered capital of more than 2 billion USD, an increase of nearly 66% over the same period. According to the Foreign Investment Agency (Ministry of Planning and Investment), the increase in the scale of investment projects is one of the main factors driving the strong increase in FDI capital. Along with the positive trend of registered capital, disbursed capital is also very positive, reaching 1.48 billion USD, an increase of nearly 10% over the same period last year.
The sharp increase in the number of newly established FDI enterprises has also pushed up the number of newly established enterprises nationwide in the first month of the year. According to the Department of Business Registration Management (Ministry of Planning and Investment), newly established enterprises in the first month of the year increased sharply in both quantity and registered capital. Specifically, in January, there were 13,536 newly registered enterprises, an increase of nearly 25% over the same period in 2023; the total registered capital reached VND 151,451 billion, an increase of nearly 53% over the same period. Notably, 13/17 industries had a sharp increase in the number of newly established enterprises. For example, the warehousing and transportation industry increased by more than 44%; the arts, entertainment and recreation industry increased by nearly 48.7%; the processing and manufacturing industry increased by 32%; mining increased by 25.5%; construction increased by more than 23%...
The figures show that business activities in January showed signs of positive recovery. In particular, FDI capital flows, disbursements, and the number of newly established enterprises all grew positively compared to the same period last year. Economist and financial expert, Associate Professor, Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh commented that the growth trend in FDI and the number of newly established enterprises started in November 2023 and has continued until now.
"Vietnam's economy is showing very clear signs of positive recovery. That shows that the investment environment has improved, the permeability of policies has been effective. Observations show that domestic enterprises are returning to production and business more, initially serving domestic consumption.
In addition, the number of export contracts increased compared to the first quarter of last year. Looking at the US economy, if in the last quarter of 2023, experts predicted growth of only 2%, but the result was 3.3%. So it can be said that export growth is partly due to the recovery of major economies. Therefore, our economy also started the new year quite optimistically, expecting to create good momentum for the following months," Associate Professor, Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh commented.
Prices of many agricultural export products increased sharply.
According to economist Vo Tri Thanh, there are some signs that create a "smooth sailing" effect for the beginning of a year that is forecast to be difficult. That is the permeability of the Government's business support policies that continue to be effective. The number of newly established businesses has increased dramatically, showing that money is circulating and being put into more production and business activities.
Similarly, the increase in investment capital is not as important as the increase in FDI disbursement and public investment capital. To create momentum for development, in the coming months, we must continue to have policies to promote more cash flow into circulation. In 2024, it is forecasted that the economy will be less pressured, inflation will decrease, and interest rates will not increase. However, external risks such as geopolitics, climate change, financial risks, etc. still need to be noted. The Vietnamese economy has gone through the most difficult period after the pandemic and it is hoped that pressure from international factors will decrease in the coming time.
"Vietnam is having a strategy to attract eagles to nest in the fields of technology, semiconductor chips... so investment attraction policies must closely follow this goal, not be neglected. We must take advantage of new opportunities by perfecting the legal framework to promote the new circular economy. Along with that, policies to support businesses need to be maintained such as tax reduction, debt forgiveness, not transferring debt groups, keeping interest rates low... The important thing is a long-term vision and early action to reduce the hardships ahead," Mr. Thanh noted.
Last weekend, at Vinafruit's year-end summary meeting, representatives of China's diplomatic and trade agencies said they would actively coordinate with the country's authorities to speed up the process of signing a protocol for frozen durian and many other agricultural products such as fresh coconut, grapefruit, avocado, etc.
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