Supply will not increase in the next 4 years, prices will be more expensive, market demand will decrease

Pepper prices today, August 17, 2024, in the domestic market turned to decrease slightly in key localities, trading from 138,000 - 139,000 VND/kg.

Pepper price today August 17, 2024: Supply will not increase in the next 4 years, prices will be more expensive, market demand will decrease. (Source: Borneo Talk)

Pepper price today, August 17, 2024, in the domestic market turned to decrease slightly in key localities, trading from 138,000 - 139,000 VND/kg.

Specifically, pepper price today in Gia Lai is at 139,000 VND/kg.

Pepper prices today in the provinces of Dong Nai (138,500 VND/kg); Dak Lak (139,000 VND/kg); Dak Nong (139,000 VND/kg); Ba Ria - Vung Tau (138,500 VND/kg) and Binh Phuoc (138,000 VND/kg).

Thus, after 2 consecutive days of increase, domestic pepper prices today turned to decrease slightly in key localities, a decrease of 1,000 VND/kg. The highest pepper price was at 139,000 VND/kg.

Mr. Hoang Phuoc Binh, Vice President of the Chu Se Pepper Association in Gia Lai, said pepper producers should prepare for a new price increase cycle lasting about 10 years.

According to a survey by the Association in the main pepper growing provinces in the 3 Central Highlands provinces (Gia Lai, Dak Lak, Dak Nong) and 3 Southeast provinces (Binh Phuoc, Dong Nai and Ba Ria - Vung Tau), the pepper growing area has decreased by 50% compared to the peak period.

Due to the reduced planting area, the current price increase cycle is likely to have lower supply than previous cycles. If farmers do not plant new or replant, pepper supply will not increase in the next 4 years, and will also be affected by weather and climate change.

Areas of intercropping pepper and durian will be converted to durian when the trees grow, further reducing pepper supply. Mr. Binh predicts that pepper prices will continue to increase because supply will not be replenished in the next four years.

However, the Vietnam Pepper Association (VPSA) warned that competition from other crops and the impact of climate change have made pepper prices unstable. Output in the next crop may not change much compared to 2024.

In the domestic market, since the beginning of the week, pepper and coffee prices have been in two opposite states. When coffee increases, pepper decreases, and vice versa. However, both agricultural products have in common low supply and decreasing exports.

Vietnam's pepper exports in the first 7 months of 2024 reached 164,357 tons compared to the 2024 harvest output of about 170 thousand tons, the remaining output is estimated to be very low. The inventory from the 2023 crop carried over plus the import volume in 2024 is about 40 - 45 thousand tons.

Thus, the export supply from August until the end of the year will be lower than every year and will last until March 2025 when the 2025 crop is expected to begin harvesting. Higher prices have caused demand in many markets to decline, thereby causing Vietnam's pepper export volume to continuously decrease in recent months.

In the world market, at the end of the most recent trading session, the International Pepper Community (IPC) listed the price of Lampung black pepper (Indonesia) at 7,426 USD/ton, up 0.03%; the price of Brazilian black pepper ASTA 570 at 6,175 USD/ton; the price of Kuching black pepper (Malaysia) ASTA at 8,500 USD/ton.

Muntok white pepper price is 8,744 USD/ton, up 0.03%; Malaysian ASTA white pepper price is at 10,400 USD/ton.

Vietnam black pepper price is trading at 5,800 USD/ton for 500 g/l; 550 g/l at 6,200 USD/ton; white pepper price at 8,500 USD/ton. IPC continues to increase pepper price in Indonesia.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-tieu-hom-nay-1782024-nguon-cung-se-khong-tang-trong-4-nam-toi-gia-ca-dat-do-hon-nhu-cau-thi-truong-giam-sut-282861.html