Hydrometeorology has changed rapidly over the past 30 years.

On February 24, 2025, the Provincial People's Committee approved the results of the project "Assessing the impacts, vulnerability, risks, losses and damages caused by climate change in Vinh Long province". The project report outlined the changes and negative impacts of climate and hydrometeorological factors on socio-economic sectors in the province over the past 30 years (1992-2023), and identified trends in the coming time.

Meteorological and climatic factors mostly tend to increase.

The report shows that from 1992 to 2023, climate, meteorological and hydrological factors in the province have changed significantly, most of the factors tend to increase; some extreme factors such as maximum temperature tend to decrease, but minimum temperature, rainfall and water level tend to increase.

Accordingly, at Vinh Long Meteorological Station, the average temperature in the period 1992-2008 was 0.10C higher than the multi-year average (TBNN) and the temperature in the recent period (2009-2023) was equal to the TBNN temperature. The average temperature increased by 0.0175 0C/year in the period 1992-2008, but decreased by 0.0377 0C/year in the period 2009-2023 and decreased by 0.0066 0C/year in the period 1992-2023.

The maximum temperature in the period 1992-2023 fluctuated from 33.7-36.30C. In the period 1992-2008, the average maximum temperature was 0.20C higher than the average, and in the period 2009-2023, the maximum temperature was 0.20C lower than the average. The average maximum temperature trend increased by 0.0293 0C/year in the period 1992-2008, but decreased by 0.0147 0C/year in the period 2009-2023 and decreased by 0.0141 0C/year in the period 1992-2023.

The total average annual rainfall of the whole province is about 1,513mm. The average annual rainfall trend in the period 1992-2023 increased by 5,229mm/year, of which the period 1992-2008 increased by 16,876mm/year, the period 2009-2023 increased by 10,605mm/year. The number of rainy days in the period 1992-2008 was 6 days less than the average; in the period 2009-2023 was 6 days higher than the average and the number of rainy days tended to increase by 0.8356 days/year in the period 1992-2023.

The average air humidity in Vinh Long is about 82%, with a tendency to increase but very little by 0.0424%/year. The total number of sunshine hours per year is about 2,152 hours on average. The period 2014-2018 has a total number of sunshine hours lower than the average by 64 hours, the period 2019-2023 has a total number of sunshine hours higher than the average by 64 hours; the number of sunshine hours increases by about 24,032 hours/year.

The average water level at My Thuan Hydrological Station over the past 30 years has decreased by 0.4327 cm/year, the lowest water level has also decreased by 1.377 cm/year, but the highest water level has increased by 1.6516 cm/year with the highest water level appearing in 2022 at 2.17m.

The report also shows that more and more extreme climate, weather and natural disasters are occurring more frequently and more complexly, including heat waves, heavy rains, storms, tornadoes, riverbank and canal landslides, droughts and saltwater intrusion. These phenomena not only cause great damage to infrastructure, agriculture and people's property but also seriously affect the livelihoods and economic development of the locality. In particular, riverbank landslides and saltwater intrusion are major challenges to the agricultural farming system and freshwater resources, which are the core elements of the province.

Statistics for the period 2019-2023 show that the average annual economic loss and damage caused by natural disasters in the province is 161,406 billion VND, accounting for 0.4% of the province's GRDP (40,446 billion VND). Losses and damage are mainly in agriculture, especially fruit trees and rice. Damage to structures caused by high tides and landslides is also significant.

Drought and saline intrusion cause great economic and non-economic losses and damages. However, the damage to economic and social sectors and fields (such as tourism, social systems, natural systems) is moderately vulnerable. In particular, the construction and technical infrastructure sectors (urban planning and development, transport infrastructure, water supply and drainage, etc.) and the industry and trade sector (industry, energy, trade and services) are relatively vulnerable.

Forecast is still complicated

In the coming time, with the impact of global climate change, climate, meteorological and hydrological factors in the province are forecasted to continue to change in a more complex trend, possibly causing new types of climate, natural disasters and extreme weather that are contrary to the law.

The calculation results of 2 climate change scenarios in Vinh Long province (high greenhouse gas concentration scenario RCP8.5 and medium-low greenhouse gas concentration scenario RCP4.5) in the report also show that the temperature tends to increase gradually in the future. Specifically, by 2030, the temperature will increase from 0.8-10C; by 2050, the temperature will increase from 1.3-1.70C. In terms of spatial distribution, the level of temperature change tends to increase in Vinh Long city, Long Ho district, Mang Thit, but increases less in Tra On and Binh Minh town.

Rainfall also tends to increase in both the dry season, rainy season and annual average, but the highest increase is in dry season rainfall. In the two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5: average rainfall in 2025 increases by 10.7-11.6% respectively (in which the rainy season increases by 6.7-7.9%, the dry season increases by 33.6-39% respectively). By 2030, annual rainfall increases by 11.2-13% (in which the rainy season increases by 8.2-11.2%, the dry season increases by 35.4-37%). By 2050, annual rainfall increases by 13.4-16.5% respectively (in which the rainy season increases by 9.6-14% and the dry season increases by 21-42%) in the two scenarios.

Regarding water level rise (on Tien River), according to the RCP4.5 scenario, in the first decades to the middle of the 21st century (2030, 2040), the average water level rise will remain unchanged compared to the current status. From 2050 onwards, the average water level rise will increase from 0.9-8.9cm. By 2050, the average water level rise will be 22.3cm (range from 13.5-32.6cm). By the end of the 21st century, the average water level rise will be 52.9cm (range from 31.8-77.2cm).

According to the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenario, this is the scenario with the highest sea level rise among the scenarios. At the beginning of the 21st century (2030), the average sea level rise is 9.55cm. By the middle of the 21st century (2050), the sea level rise is 24.5cm. By the end of the 21st century, the sea level rise is 73.2cm (range 48-105cm).

It is estimated that economic losses and damages from 2023-2025 will be about 253,505 billion VND/year, total losses from 2023-2030 will be about 537,978 billion VND/year, and from 2023-2040 will be about 2,422,820 billion VND/year.

On that basis, the report recommends that, in order to develop sustainably and minimize the risk of damage caused by climate change, Vinh Long province needs to pay special attention to disaster prevention. Specifically, the structure, organization, and consolidation of the force for disaster prevention in a streamlined, professional manner, ensuring effectiveness and efficiency; investing in advanced and modern means and equipment for disaster prevention and search and rescue.

Strive for 100% of government agencies at all levels, organizations, unions and households to receive full information and understanding of disaster prevention skills; the force working on disaster prevention is trained, properly trained, fully equipped with necessary knowledge and equipment; 100% of organizations, households and individuals ensure the requirements according to the "4 on-site" motto... and strive to reduce damage caused by natural disasters to less than 1.2% of the province's GRDP.

Article and photos: TRUNG CHANH

Source: https://baovinhlong.vn/thoi-su/202503/khi-tuong-thuy-van-thay-doi-nhanh-trong-hon-30-nam-qua-ce72c2f/