Gold expert warns "you may 'hit the peak' if you buy gold now"

On September 29, SJC Gold Company continued to list the buying price of SJC gold bars at VND81.5 million/tael and the selling price at VND83.5 million/tael. This is the highest price of SJC gold bars in nearly 4 months.

The price of 24K gold rings and jewelry of all kinds continues to maintain at 82.5 million VND/tael for buying and 83.4 million VND/tael for selling, the highest in the history of this type of gold.

On the international market, gold prices last week temporarily closed at a historical peak of 2,659 USD/ounce, up about 30% since the beginning of the year.

Both domestic and foreign investors are flocking to gold because they expect the price of this precious metal to continue to increase. Even people are starting to return to this money-keeping channel after a few months of "forgetting". However, when talking to a reporter from Nguoi Lao Dong Newspaper, gold expert Tran Duy Phuong had some surprising comments about this "attractive" investment channel.

*Reporter: Many people are surprised to see the price of SJC gold bars and gold rings close to each other, even the price of gold rings is higher than that of gold bars, why?

+ Gold expert Tran Duy Phuong : The fluctuation of gold ring prices has long depended on the world gold price. The price of SJC gold bars is currently controlled by the State Bank, as well as fixed daily. The price of SJC gold bars has increased to 83.5 million VND/tael but it is not easy to buy, you have to register through a commercial bank and SJC company; gold rings are also scarce.

During the week, at some points the price of gold rings on the free market reached 84 million VND/tael, the price of SJC gold bars was also pushed up to 84.5 million VND/tael...

The price of gold rings has increased due to the continuous peak in world gold prices and the scarcity of raw materials, so businesses do not have enough goods to supply the market. The scarcity of gold rings not only occurs in large businesses but also in small gold shops, making it difficult to buy. This further pushes the price of gold rings up.

* So, are you surprised by the shocking increase in gold prices in the country and the world in recent days? What factors are affecting this hot increase?

+ I am not really surprised that the world gold price has increased, because since the beginning of the year I have predicted that the world gold price will reach 2,600 USD/ounce.

Gold prices are rising because major central banks around the world have been, are and are preparing to cut interest rates, which will have a strong impact on gold prices and this price increase cycle may last until mid-2025. In the past, gold always increased when countries cut interest rates. The next reason is the geopolitical tension in the world, making gold an effective defensive channel for major investors.

* You think gold prices will continue to increase, so should investors and people with idle money buy gold to store at this time?

+ Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have increased by about 30% compared to world gold prices, possibly nearing their peak and there will be a correction before continuing to increase.

Each correction is about 100-150 USD/ounce, then it can go sideways for a while before continuing to increase. In the past, gold prices peaked at 2,200 USD/ounce and then suddenly fell to 2,100 USD/ounce before continuing to increase...

Therefore, investors should not expect the gold price to increase vertically and importantly, the increase in 2025 will be very difficult to reach 30% like this year. On average, each year, the average increase in gold price is only about 5-10%.

Therefore, investing in gold now needs to be carefully considered, because the risks are high. The picture is similar with the domestic gold market. When the world gold price adjusts, the domestic gold price will also decrease. The difference between the domestic and world gold prices is currently about 4-5 million VND, so the pressure to decrease when the world gold price plummets is reasonable. Not to mention, the price of gold rings increases rapidly when investors are impatient to buy and wait for the price to increase further, which invisibly creates virtual prices and risks.

In my opinion, people should not buy gold if it is not really necessary. Those who have bought gold before and made a profit should also consider selling when they have reached the desired profit. Buying domestic gold at this time is very easy to "take advantage of the peak" if the world price reverses and plummets in the short term. If you sell to take profit and the price continues to increase, you will not regret it because the profit of gold rings from the beginning of the year until now is 25-30%, which is an attractive level.

* If buying gold in the investment portfolio, what investment ratio should be maintained?

+ Investing or hoarding gold is very popular among Vietnamese people, because buying gold does not require any analytical expertise. According to my observation, gold buyers often spend about 30% of their investment capital on the channel. This is also a reasonable level because you should not "put all your eggs in one basket" but should diversify other investment channels such as savings, stocks or self-employment...

If gold is rising as hot as it is now, investing all your capital, or just 50% of your capital, is too risky, because gold does not always follow the desired trend.

Source: https://nld.com.vn/chuyen-gia-vang-canh-bao-co-the-du-dinh-neu-mua-vang-luc-nay-196240929120226918.htm