Türkiye will celebrate the 100th anniversary of its republic this year. First as Türkiye’s prime minister and then as president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been at the political helm of the republic for a fifth of that century. His victory in the second round of presidential elections on May 28th gives him another five years in power.
That Erdogan has managed to overcome what is arguably the biggest test of his political career is remarkable given Türkiye’s struggling economy and lingering public anger over the government’s response to the February earthquake that killed at least 50,000 people. So what does Erdogan’s victory mean for the future of Turkey and, more broadly, the world? That is the question on many people’s minds.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. (Photo: Getty)
Erdogan's Victory: Today's Continuation
For Türkiye, Erdoğan's third and final term means “a continuation of today,” but today is a day many Turks want to pass quickly.
The Turkish economy is currently facing serious problems, including high inflation and low foreign exchange reserves. The current economic policy is said to be unable to help Türkiye achieve high growth rates or boost exports. This is the biggest problem that Mr. Erdogan needs to solve quickly.
What is important now for President Erdogan and the new government is to reassure both domestic and foreign investors about the Turkish economy. In his victory speech, Erdogan spoke extensively about the Turkish economy, showing that he is determined to chart a stronger course for the economy.
Profound international influence
It must be affirmed that the impact of Mr. Erdogan's victory is not limited to Türkiye but also has a profound impact internationally, especially on NATO. Unlike other members of the alliance, Türkiye has made great efforts to strengthen its close relationship with Russia.
Ankara controversially purchased the S-400 missile defense system from Moscow in 2017. While most other countries sanctioned Russia after it launched a “special military operation” in Ukraine, Türkiye continued to do business with Moscow.
In a recent interview with CNN, Erdogan touted his “special relationship” with Russian President Vladimir Putin and reiterated Turkey’s opposition to Sweden joining NATO. Türkiye has previously sought to block Finland and Sweden from joining NATO, citing concerns over their support for Kurdish militants, which Turkey and the United States consider terrorist organizations.
Although Türkiye eventually dropped its objections to Finland, which then became NATO's 31st member, it continued to maintain its veto over Sweden's bid to join the alliance.
“Over the next five years, we will likely see a strengthening of the relationship between Erdogan and Putin,” said Gonul Tol, a political scientist at the Middle East Institute in Washington. “He has used Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership as a trump card to extract concessions from the West. And he has a lot of options, so he will try to exploit them.”
However, most analysts still expect President Erdogan to eventually nod in agreement to Sweden joining NATO – if not before the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius in late July, then perhaps by the end of this year.
“Erdogan values Turkey’s presence in NATO because he knows it gives Ankara more leverage in international affairs,” said Galip Dalay, a fellow at the London-based Chatham House think tank. “Indeed, Erdogan has sought to portray Turkey as a significant mediator between Russia and the West, having facilitated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine and helped broker a major Black Sea grain deal last year.”
Erdogan’s victory could also have a decisive impact on Türkiye’s estimated 3.6 million Syrian refugees. While Kilicdaroglu has pledged to expel all refugees from the country if elected, Erdogan has said his government plans to build hundreds of thousands of homes in northern Syria to facilitate voluntary return of refugees.
According to Ms. Gonul Tol, how President Erdogan governs the country and handles international relations in his final term will largely depend on how the world chooses to react to his victory, especially the West.
Whether the West is ready to confront an increasingly unpredictable and uncontrollable Türkiye or maintain a trading relationship with it is a difficult question, Ms. Tol said, but as long as Mr. Erdogan accepts Syrian refugees in Türkiye, the West can continue to work with Ankara and ignore other issues that they are not really satisfied with.
Hung Cuong (VOV.VN)
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