Although the main battlefield of the Israel-Hamas conflict this time is concentrated in the Gaza Strip, after the outbreak, the conflict quickly spread throughout the Middle East. Even faraway places such as the US, UK, Ukraine, Brazil, South Africa... can feel the strong "aftershocks" of the conflict. In addition to the regional armed conflict that is constantly spreading and prolonging, the potential conflicts caused by the war in the Gaza Strip are also deeply affecting the development, movement of the geopolitical situation and the international order.
Conflicts tend to spread to many places.
On October 7, 2023, after Hamas suddenly attacked Israel with the "Al-Aqsa Flood" campaign, the Israeli army launched the "Iron Swords" military campaign against armed organizations in the Gaza Strip. After that, the war in the Gaza Strip quickly developed according to the "center-periphery" conflict model. With the central battlefield being the Gaza Strip, the Middle East region simultaneously had 5 fronts: the West Bank, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen-Red Sea. These five fronts are essentially peripheral wars, aiming to coordinate operations with Hamas, and disperse Israel's strength and resources.
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| Israel's military campaign in the Gaza Strip is the largest, fiercest and longest war since the establishment of the State of Israel (in 1948) until now. Photo: AP |
In the West Bank, the conflict is mainly bloody between the Israeli army, police, extremists in Jewish settlements and armed factions and Palestinian people. Due to the scale and severity of the conflict in the Gaza Strip, the conflict in the West Bank has received little attention from the outside world. In fact, in recent years, the scale and frequency of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the West Bank has also been increasing. This war in the Gaza Strip has further escalated the confrontation in the West Bank, causing the international community to worry that the situation in this area will get out of control.
Meanwhile, in the direction of Lebanon, the main conflict is between Hezbollah and Israel. The conflict between Lebanon and Israel on this front is mainly concentrated in the border area in northern Israel, but the Lebanese capital Beirut and southern cities of Israel are also occasionally attacked. Therefore, the international community is concerned that a large-scale war will break out between Israel and Hezbollah. After the conflict in the Gaza Strip broke out, in order to prevent Hezbollah from participating in the war, Israel was forced to deploy heavy troops in the North, avoiding a second war, while the US also sent an aircraft carrier strike group to anchor in the eastern Mediterranean.
In the Red Sea-Yemen direction, there is mainly a fierce confrontation between the Houthi armed forces in Yemen and the US and the UK. The prominent feature of this front is that the US and the UK, in the name of protecting freedom of navigation, have replaced Israel in conducting military attacks on the Houthi forces. When the conflict in the Gaza Strip broke out, the Houthi armed forces mainly targeted targets inside Israeli territory with UAVs and ballistic missiles, but were not very effective due to the long distance. Since mid-November 2023, the Houthi armed forces have shifted their focus to attacking Israeli-related ships traveling in the Red Sea, causing a crisis in this sea area.
To avoid attacks, hundreds of commercial ships are forced to sail around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope to reach Europe and the Mediterranean. The unrest in the Red Sea has not only caused a maritime crisis and threatened global supply chains, but has also escalated into a security crisis in the sea. The Houthis have said that they will only stop their attacks if Israel stops firing.
According to experts, the conflict in the Gaza Strip this time has actually spread beyond the area and is not limited to the above-mentioned front lines. In addition to the armed conflict, it has also spread to geopolitical and economic aspects.
Politically, the war in the Gaza Strip has accelerated the transformation of major conflicts in the Middle East region, rapidly transforming geopolitical relations, causing the "reconciliation trend" in the region in recent years to stagnate.
Economically, the war in the Gaza Strip has caused heavy damage to Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen...
Changing the world order
The impact of the conflict in the Gaza Strip has spread far beyond the Middle East. First, the conflict has severely damaged Israel's global reputation. Israel's military campaign in the Gaza Strip has caused a major humanitarian disaster.
In addition, this conflict has also spread to Europe, directly affecting the development of the Ukraine crisis that has lasted from February 2022 to the present. The sudden outbreak of the conflict in the Gaza Strip has not only diverted the attention of the US and Western countries from the Ukraine crisis, but also reduced financial and weapons aid to Ukraine.
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| Despite calls from the international community and even key allies, the Israeli military announced it had entered a new phase of the war. Photo: AP |
However, the Israel-Hamas conflict is not only at the core of a series of complex problems in the Middle East region, but also a major issue that threatens global peace and security. It is logical that the conflict in the Gaza Strip continues to spread abroad.
In terms of form, the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip, which has spread outwards, is also closely linked to the current complex international and regional conflicts, in which the US and Israel play a central role.
In the short term, if the conflict in the Gaza Strip does not end, the spread of this conflict will not stop, and will even continue to expand and prolong. If a ceasefire agreement is reached in the Gaza Strip, Israel's next move will be worth watching. The most notable issues are whether Israel will launch an operation against Hezbollah and whether there will be a direct military confrontation between Israel and Iran.
In the long run, whether the Israeli-Palestinian conflict can be resolved and its spread is closely related to whether international justice can be given voice and a just and reasonable international order can be established. Because in essence, the Palestinian issue is a matter of defending international justice and the legitimacy of the international order.
The United Nations said that as of May 13, the number of victims killed in the Gaza Strip due to the conflict between Israel and Hamas had reached more than 35,000 people, but many of the victims' bodies have not been identified.
UN spokesman Farhan Haq said figures from the Gaza health agency, which the UN regularly cites in its report on the seven-month conflict, showed that 24,686 people who died had been fully identified, including 7,797 children, 4,959 women, 1,924 elderly people and 10,006 men. However, more than 10,000 bodies still needed to be identified.
Meanwhile, World Health Organization (WHO) spokeswoman Margaret Harris said that the actual death toll in the conflict in the Gaza Strip could be higher than 35,000.
Source: https://congthuong.vn/xung-dot-o-dai-gaza-va-nhung-he-luy-kho-luong-321955.html
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