As the US has come close to withdrawing from the Middle East, the region has drawn Washington back, starting with the thousands of rockets fired by Hamas into Israel on October 7.
It is difficult to predict the long-term impact of the conflict, as it depends on whether Israel can eliminate Hamas as it has promised, and whether the diplomatic position of Israel and its Western allies can withstand the mounting casualties in the Gaza Strip in the coming urban war.
But for now, the Hamas-Israel war, which has killed thousands, is giving countries like Russia, China and Iran an opportunity to undermine America's diplomatic standing, thereby trying to shift the current US-led world order.
Meanwhile, both Washington and its allies in Brussels will have to worry about fighting in the Middle East, as the conflict in Ukraine shows no signs of ending.
President Joe Biden delivers a major speech to the nation on his stance on the Hamas-Israel conflict, humanitarian assistance in Gaza and aid to Ukraine, on October 19 (Photo: New York Times).
America is suffering
Long before the Hamas-Israel conflict broke out on October 7, Washington wanted to reduce its presence in the Middle East, after 20 years of pursuing costly anti-terrorism goals that left many consequences for American politics and society.
"Starting from the Obama era, through the Trump era, and continuing under the Biden era, the US has wanted to create more distance between itself and the Middle East," Dana Allin, a senior researcher at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), told Dan Tri reporter.
After the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, the Biden administration realized that America's entanglement in the Middle East was making it difficult for it to fully focus on dealing with China - a country that the US believes is the only country that can challenge its position in the world.
Washington has come up with an exit strategy that Suzanne Maloney, Vice President of the Brookings Institution, a US policy institute, assessed as "innovative", to create a new balance of power in the Middle East, allowing the US to reduce its presence there and ensure that China cannot fill the vacuum.
According to that strategy, the US will act as an intermediary to help its two most important partners in the region, Israel and Saudi Arabia, normalize relations, thereby helping to unite the two countries against their common opponent, Iran, and at the same time push Riyadh out of Beijing's orbit.
But Hamas gunfire and thousands of rockets have frustrated those efforts. Instead of reducing its military presence, the US has deployed two aircraft carrier strike groups to the region and put thousands of troops on “high alert” to support Israel.
“This crisis shows the difficulty of setting your own strategic agenda,” Dallin said. “The Middle East has a way of pulling the United States back.”
Washington will have to walk a tightrope in supporting its ally Israel, in part because Palestinian civilian casualties from an expected Israeli ground offensive in the Gaza Strip will be tied to the United States, according to Dallin.
In addition, the United States may find its resources stretched thin by simultaneously providing aid to Ukraine and Israel. If the fighting in the Gaza Strip drags on and production capacity fails to keep up with demand, Washington may have to prioritize one side in providing weapons and military equipment.
The Israeli military mobilized a large number of armored vehicles and conducted exercises along the Gaza border in preparation for a potential ground attack (Photo: New York Times).
Advantage for Russia
The outbreak of conflict in the Middle East could bring some advantages to Russia, which has so far launched a "special military operation" lasting more than 600 days in Ukraine.
"Russia benefits from this earthquake, because Western allies will be stretched thin in continuing to support Ukraine militarily and financially," Kawa Hassan, a researcher at the Stimson Center's Middle East and North Africa program, told Dan Tri reporter.
As Israel was still reacting to Hamas' surprise attack, Moscow launched its biggest offensive in months to capture Avdiivka, dubbed the "second Bakhmut" in eastern Ukraine.
The attack would have attracted much attention if it had happened before October 7, but it is now a minor development next to the headlines about the Hamas-Israel conflict.
The Hamas conflict is also an opportunity for Russia to criticize the US, saying that Washington must bear responsibility. "I think many will agree with me that this is a clear example of the failure of US policy in the Middle East," President Vladimir Putin said during talks with the Iraqi Prime Minister.
Palestinians take shelter in a tent camp at a UN-run center in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, October 23 (Photo: Reuters).
Although Israel and the Gaza Strip are not oil exporters, the conflict has pushed oil prices up over the past two weeks, reaching as high as $96 a barrel. If the conflict spreads further, oil prices could rise to more than $100 a barrel due to concerns about supply disruptions from the Middle East.
Higher crude prices will help oil exporters like Russia shore up their economies and boost foreign exchange reserves, as the country plans to sharply increase defense spending in 2024.
However, if the conflict in Gaza continues, it may not be beneficial for Russia, some experts say.
Russia has always tried to maintain a balanced diplomatic relationship with all parties in the Middle East, including rival pairs such as Israel and Hamas. In doing so, Moscow has made itself an essential player for many actors in the region.
In that context, if the war in Gaza spills over into a wider conflict between Israel and another Iranian proxy (such as Hezbollah in Lebanon), it could increase the risks to Russia’s tightrope walking, forcing Moscow to tilt further toward Iran, according to Hanna Notte, director of Eurasia at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.
“I’m not sure that’s what Russia really wants,” Notte wrote in Foreign Policy .
Israeli soldiers carry a body in the Israeli village of Kfar Azza, near the security fence with Gaza, after a Hamas attack (Photo: New York Times).
China wants to "be friends with everyone"
China has been trying to maintain a neutral position in the Hamas-Israel conflict in particular. On October 9, the Chinese Foreign Ministry condemned the harm to civilians in general and affirmed that the country is a "friend of both Israel and Palestine".
In March this year, China brokered the normalization of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. With the Hamas-Israel conflict, Beijing could continue to play that role, thereby helping to build an image of China as a contributor to peace in the Middle East, in contrast to the United States.
Whether China can truly play the role of peacemaker remains to be seen, as Beijing's neutrality has left Israel "deeply disappointed".
While calling on both sides to refrain from any action that could escalate the situation, Beijing has avoided using the term “terrorism”—the term Israel uses to describe Hamas. China has even avoided mentioning “Hamas” in official statements.
Foreign Minister Wang Yi also directly expressed his dissatisfaction with Israel: "Israel's actions have exceeded the limits of self-defense. The root cause... of the Palestine-Israel situation is that the Palestinian people's right to establish a state has been set aside for a long time."
Palestinians gather in front of the site of an Israeli attack in Rafah, southern Gaza Strip on October 17 (Photo: Reuters).
The Gaza conflict also marks a setback for China’s main Asian rival, India, which has grown closer to Israel in recent years. In his first remarks since the conflict broke out, Prime Minister Narendra Modi stressed that India “stands in solidarity with Israel in this hour of need.”
Last September, India and the United States announced plans to build an economic corridor connecting India, the Middle East and Europe, in a bid to compete with China's Belt and Road Initiative.
However, the recent conflict has frozen the process of normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, two important countries in the economic corridor. The future of the negotiations is now uncertain.
However, similar to Russia, things would not be all rosy for Beijing if the conflict spreads across the region.
“China is also heavily dependent on oil from the Middle East,” said Allin. “A regional war could affect the stability of those energy sources.”
Half of China's oil imports and more than a third of its total oil use come from the Gulf, according to Andon Pavlov, oil products analyst at Vienna-based analytics firm Kpler.
Pro-Palestinian protesters in Madrid, Spain, on October 21 (Photo: Reuters).
EU's Headache
Europe would be the biggest headache if the Hamas-Israel conflict escalates. In addition to the distraction, the EU could face a new energy crisis that could cripple alternative supplies of Russian oil and gas.
In addition, historical and demographic reasons also cause Europe to have internal contradictions in how to respond to the conflict in the Gaza Strip.
"Europe, and Germany in particular, feels a strong commitment to Israel and its security. In many ways, they feel they cannot criticize Israel for the consequences of the Holocaust," Allin pointed out. "At the same time, Europeans in general are sympathetic to the plight of the Palestinians."
Europe also has a significant Muslim population (estimated at 44 million in 2010, 6% of the population), who are likely to be outraged by the growing casualties among Gazans from Israeli airstrikes.
Violence in the Middle East has the potential to spark violence in Europe, as happened during the campaign to push back the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) in 2014-2017. Over the past two weeks, major cities in Europe have witnessed many pro-Palestinian protests, with hundreds of thousands of participants.
According to Mr. Allin, the current political climate could provide opportunities for far-right governments.
“Perhaps the biggest political threat in Europe is the rise of far-right populist governments fuelled by the divide between traditional Christians and Muslims,” Allin said. “This is similar to the rise of Mr Trump in the US.”
Source
Comment (0)