With positive signals from the market, Vietnam's agricultural exports are forecast to continue to grow strongly in 2025. However, the agricultural sector still faces many new challenges and opportunities.
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| Trade agreements open up great opportunities for Vietnamese businesses, especially in the Halal Muslim market. |
The United States emerged as the largest import market.
Mr. Le Thanh Hoa, Deputy Director of the Department of Quality, Processing and Market Development (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development) said that the agricultural sector aims to have the export value of Vietnam's agricultural, forestry and fishery products reach about 50-51 billion USD by 2025 and 60-62 billion USD by 2030. However, up to now, the export value has far exceeded the set target, reaching more than 62 billion USD. This result has a positive contribution from Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), opening markets, reducing tariffs on many products to low or 0%. At the same time, negotiations to open markets and promote trade have also been actively implemented by ministries and branches, helping agricultural products, especially Vietnamese fruits, to reach further and further.
In 2024, 11 items will continue to maintain an export turnover value of over 1 billion USD, with 7 items achieving an export turnover of over 3 billion USD (wood and wood products estimated at 16.1 billion USD, vegetables and fruits estimated at 7.1 billion USD, rice estimated at 5.8 billion USD, coffee estimated at 5.4 billion USD, cashew nuts at 4.3 billion USD, shrimp at 3.8 billion USD, rubber estimated at 3.2 billion USD). In terms of growth rate, the export of vegetables and fruits, rice, coffee, cashew nuts and pepper all achieved double digits: coffee increased by 56.9%, pepper increased by 53.3%, rubber increased by 24.6%, rice increased by 10.6%.
According to Mr. Le Thanh Hoa, the structure of Vietnam's agricultural, forestry and fishery export market in 2024 will change significantly. The United States has surpassed China to become the largest import market, with a turnover of about 8.7 billion USD, accounting for 25.4% of the total export value. Other markets such as ASEAN, the Middle East, and the EU also have significant growth. However, the export growth rate to key markets such as China and Japan shows signs of slowing down.
Mr. Nguyen Anh Phong, Deputy Director of the Institute of Policy and Strategy for Agricultural and Rural Development (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development) said that the United States will continue to be a key market in the coming time. In addition, the trade conflict between the United States and China creates favorable conditions for Vietnam to expand exports.
According to Mr. Nguyen Anh Phong, the demand for vegetables, fruits and seafood in the Chinese market is expected to grow strongly in the period 2024-2029, with an average annual growth rate of 6.64% and 7.56%, respectively. The favorable geographical location helps Vietnamese agricultural products such as vegetables, fruits and seafood maintain fresh quality, meeting the tastes of Chinese consumers at competitive prices.
In addition, China's demand for rubber and cassava imports is also very large due to limited domestic supply. In addition to the Chinese market, Vietnamese agricultural products also have many opportunities to expand to other potential markets such as the Middle East and some African countries.
Agricultural exports will continue to grow in 2025
With the increasing demand for clean and safe products, Vietnam's agricultural, forestry and fishery exports, especially to demanding markets such as Europe and the US, are forecast to achieve impressive growth in 2025.
Mr. Ngo Hong Phong, Director of the Department of Quality, Processing and Market Development, said that domestic agricultural production continues to be stable and growing, creating a solid foundation for Vietnam to make the most of export opportunities opening up in 2025. In the context of increasing global food demand due to the unstable world situation, Vietnam with its strengths in agriculture will have many competitive advantages.
"The signing and implementation of free trade agreements, along with Vietnam's increasingly important position in the ASEAN region, will create favorable conditions for Vietnamese agricultural products to penetrate deeply into large and diverse markets, contributing to enhancing Vietnam's position on the world agricultural map," Mr. Ngo Hong Phong shared.
However, according to Mr. Ngo Hong Phong, the world economic situation is forecast to continue to face many challenges in 2025. Increased strategic competition, geopolitical instability, and slow economic recovery will create many risks. In particular, the new term of the US President may lead to major changes in global economic policy, affecting the currency, trade and investment markets. In addition, energy and food crises are also factors that threaten the stability of the world economy.
According to Mr. Nong Duc Lai - Vietnam's Trade Counselor in the Chinese market, Vietnam still has many opportunities to penetrate the Chinese market. However, businesses need to strictly comply with the regulations of the importing country on quality standards, quarantine testing, packaging, and traceability. At the same time, it is necessary to focus on building brands and improving competitiveness.
In addition, Vietnamese enterprises need to make the most of incentives from trade agreements, expand market share in potential markets such as Halal, Middle East and Africa; at the same time, actively negotiate for the EU to remove the yellow card for Vietnamese seafood. At the same time, farmers need to improve production and business capacity, proactively access market information to meet the increasing demand of the market.
Source: https://thoibaonganhang.vn/xuat-khau-nong-lam-thuy-san-nam-2024-co-buoc-nhay-vot-158993.html
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