1. Some information about Australian macroeconomics
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measuring inflation in Australia in the fourth quarter of 2024 was at 2.4%, continuing to record a decline compared to the third quarter of 2024 (2.8%) and a sharp decline compared to the record peak of 7.8% in the fourth quarter of 2022. Compared to the same period in 2023, the main items/services that increased in price were education (+6.5%), alcohol and tobacco (+6.2%), insurance and financial services (+5.4%), while the transport sector recorded a decrease of 1.5%.
- In the regular meeting in February 2025, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to cut the operating interest rate from 4.35% to 4.1%. This is a positive move, predicted by experts as recently, inflation in Australia has been on the decline and basically under control.
- Australia's merchandise trade continued to recover in December 2024 when statistics showed exports reached AUD 44 billion, up 1.1% over the previous month, mainly due to iron ore and metal exports. On the other hand, imports reached AUD 38.9 billion, up 5.9% over the previous month. The merchandise trade surplus reached AUD 5.09 billion.
- The unemployment rate in Australia in January 2025 increased slightly to 4.1% (4.0% last month), of which the number of employed people reached over 14.63 million, an increase of 498 thousand people (+3.5%) over the same period last year; the number of unemployed people was at 627.5 thousand people (an increase of 4.2% compared to the same period in 2023).
- Retail sales in Australia in December 2024 reached AUD 36.99 billion, down slightly by 0.1% compared to the previous month and up 4.6% compared to 2023; the figure for the whole of Q4/2024 reached AUD 105.8 billion, up 1% compared to the previous quarter and 1.1% compared to the previous year. The items/sectors that recorded increases were household goods (+1.6%), supermarkets (+0.4%), food (+0.1%); meanwhile, by state, except for Western Australia (+0.2%), and NSW (+0.1%), retail sales in other states/territories all decreased.
- The yield on Australia's 10-year government bond eased to 4.42% as investors digested domestic economic data. Consumer confidence rose slightly in February but remained subdued amid concerns about household finances and rising living costs. Meanwhile, business sentiment improved in January, hitting its highest level since October despite a slowdown in sales and profits. The data came as analysts forecast the Reserve Bank of Australia's first interest rate cut in four years.
2. Some noteworthy information
Export from Vietnam to Australia
According to Vietnam Customs, Vietnam's exports to Australia in January 2025 continued to be a bright spot, recording an increase of 13.9% over the same period; one of the few major markets with an increase of over 10%, especially in the context of the country's exports witnessing a decrease (-4.3%), contributing significantly to the increase in total bilateral import-export turnover. Key commodities basically grew. Reaching a turnover of more than 570 million USD. Total bilateral turnover reached nearly 1.5 billion USD. Notably, imports from Australia to Vietnam decreased sharply, which reduced the trade deficit but led to a decrease in total two-way turnover. The structure of imported goods from Australia to Vietnam is mainly raw materials.
Australia cuts tariffs on hydrogen and critical minerals
On February 11, 2025, Australia passed new legislation to provide tax incentives for companies that produce renewable hydrogen or process critical minerals, in a bid to boost green industries and reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains. Starting in July 2027, eligible manufacturers will receive tax breaks of up to 10 years per project. The legislation also introduces a 10% production tax credit for refining critical minerals such as lithium and nickel, also valid for up to 10 years.
The incentives are worth $13.7 billion over 10 years and are part of the Government’s Made in Australia Future policy. In a joint statement, federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen described the tax breaks as crucial to “capturing the economies of scale and industrial opportunities” of the net zero transition. The bill’s passage has been widely welcomed by industry and local stakeholders.
Trung Nguyen Legend has its first store in Australia
Trung Nguyen Legend will enter the Australian market and have its first store on Courtney Street, Melbourne with an area of up to 400m2, opening next March.
Australian aluminium industry faces tariffs from President Donald Trump
President Donald Trump has announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imported into the United States, with no exceptions, effective from March 4. Shortly after, in a phone call with the Australian Prime Minister, Mr. Trump agreed to consider exempting Australia from these measures as Australia is one of the few markets with which the United States has a trade surplus.
However, in response to President Trump's tariff move, Mr. Dragicevich, director of Australia's largest aluminum producer - Capral Aluminum, and also a member of the Australian Aluminum Council (ACC), is concerned that this tariff could disrupt global trade and increase the possibility of China dumping aluminum into the Australian market. He said that if countries like China, the world's largest aluminum producer, are excluded from the US market because of the Trump administration's tariffs, they will look for other alternative markets. Therefore, he called on the Australian Government to be cautious and apply anti-dumping measures to protect domestic producers.
Australia comprehensively reviews FTAs with Southeast Asia
The Australian Government has begun a comprehensive review of its Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with Southeast Asia to ensure they continue to deliver benefits for Australian businesses and investors. Southeast Asia is forecast to become the world’s fourth largest economy by 2040, driven by a growing middle class and demand for quality products and services. In 2023, Australia’s trade with the region soared to $183.4 billion. The review is expected to be completed by 31 December this year.
3. Analysis and recommendations
Australian CPI Information January 2025 [6]
Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.5% year-on-year in January 2025, unchanged from the previous month but below market expectations of 2.6%. However, inflation was at its highest since August 2024 as food prices peaked in three months (up 3.3% from 2.7% in December 2024), driven largely by a 12.3% increase in fruit prices. Housing inflation meanwhile hit a five-month high (2.1% from 1.5%). Additional pressure came from alcohol and tobacco (6.4% vs. 5.8%), clothing (2.1% vs. 1.3%), furniture (1.0% vs. 1.3%), health (4.0% vs. 4.0%), recreation (0.9% vs. 1.6%), transportation (0.5% vs. 0.7%) and financial services (5.3% vs. 5.2%). Annual strimmed mean inflation rose to 2.8% from 2.7% in December 2024. Excluding volatile items and travel, the CPI rose 2.9%, the highest in five months.
Propose:
-Australian fruit prices are rising, Vietnamese businesses need to boost exports.
- Australia is in a housing crisis, Vietnam needs to boost the export of construction materials and cooperate in construction investment. Please contact the Trade Office to connect.
4. Trade Defense News (Information is for reference only. When needing to cite sources or make related decisions, please review and update information from the Department of Trade, Ministry of Industry and Trade)
Information on some recent specific cases:
(1) In the case of Aluminum Profiles from Vietnam and Malaysia (591), although there was a decision not to maintain the anti-dumping tax order, after a complaint and independent review, Australia continued to impose anti-dumping tax on this product from Vietnam and Malaysia from December 14, 2023 (5.2% for Dong A Aluminum Company and 9.0% for other companies). The expiration date of this anti-dumping tax is June 27, 2027.
(2) Most recently, the Australian Government announced an anti-dumping and anti-dumping investigation into hot-rolled coiled rebar from Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Türkiye and Vietnam (655). The date of the investigation announcement is 24/9/2024, and the deadline for responding to the first questionnaire is 31/10/2024.
The Statement of Essential Facts will be published on 4 August 2025 and the parties will have 20 days to submit their written comments from the date of publication of the Statement of Essential Facts. The deadline for submission of final comments is 6 October 2025. It is expected that the Minister's decision will be issued within 30 days of receipt of final comments.
- AUD/USD exchange rate details and Australian financial situation
The Australian dollar traded at 1 AUD = 0.635 USD on February 20, 2025, holding a nearly two-month high as investors reacted to the latest labor market data. However, due to the impact of the world situation as well as the forecast of the US tariff policy to take effect on aluminum and steel, the Australian dollar fell back to around 0.635 USD after a slight increase earlier.
The Reserve Bank of Australia cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.1% at its February meeting on 18 February 2025, as expected. However, the central bank signaled a more cautious stance on further rate cuts, citing concerns that the disinflation process could be difficult. In a subsequent press conference, RBA Governor Michele Bullock stressed that the central bank had not yet reduced inflation and warned that there may be little room for further cuts. Markets are now pricing in a gradual easing cycle, with the cash rate forecast at 3.6% in September, implying two more quarter-point rate cuts in the near term.
Newsletter details, see here
Source: https://moit.gov.vn/tin-tuc/thi-truong-nuoc-ngoai/ban-tin-thi-truong-uc-so-ra-ngay-04-03-2025.html
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