On September 30, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh chaired the regular September Government meeting and the Government's online conference with localities.
Three growth scenarios
Reporting at the meeting, Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung said that the macro economy in September and the first 9 months of 2023 was basically stable and continued to maintain positive changes.
The economy gradually regained growth momentum, each quarter grew faster than the previous quarter, each month was more positive than the previous month.
Specifically, GDP in the third quarter is estimated to increase by 5.33% over the same period last year (in the first quarter it increased by 3.28% and in the second quarter it increased by 4.05%) in the context of many economies continuing to have low growth. The macro economy continues to be stable, inflation is under control, and major balances are ensured.
In addition, the consumer price index (CPI) in September increased by 3.66% over the same period last year, the average increase in the first 9 months was 3.16%; the monetary market was basically stable; the interest rate continued to decrease. Import-export turnover increased, the estimated trade surplus in the first 9 months was 21.68 billion USD (the same period last year was 6.9 billion USD). Public debt, government debt, and budget deficit were controlled according to the National Assembly's targets. Energy security (electricity, gasoline, oil), food and foodstuffs were ensured.
On the local side, Mr. Le Anh Duong, Chairman of the Bac Giang Provincial People's Committee, said that the province's economic growth in the third quarter reached more than 14%, and in the first 9 months it reached 12%. Notably, import-export turnover reached more than 32 billion USD, attracting approximately 2 billion USD in FDI capital. The labor force in Bac Giang's industrial parks in recent months has increased by about 50,000 people, not only making up for the previous decline but also increasing significantly.
"Production capacity has been expanded with many new factories coming into operation in the area, including the first semiconductor factory in the North inaugurated on September 16," said the Chairman of the Bac Giang Provincial People's Committee.
In addition to the bright spots, the Prime Minister frankly pointed out the shortcomings and limitations. Accordingly, the GDP growth rate has not been as expected, inflation is still under a lot of pressure. Growth drivers are facing difficulties, such as slow recovery of industry, the added value in 9 months increased by only 1.65%.
"The labor and employment situation faces many challenges. The lives of a segment of the population are still difficult, especially in remote areas, ethnic minority areas, border areas, and islands. Diseases, climate change, storms, floods, El Nino heat waves, droughts, landslides, etc. are complicated," the Prime Minister emphasized.
Based on the results of the first 9 months, forecasting the context and situation of the world and the country in the coming time, the Ministry of Planning and Investment has updated the growth scenarios for the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2023. Scenario 1: Economic growth for the whole year is about 5%, the fourth quarter needs to increase by 7% (the fourth quarter of 2022 increases by 5.92%); scenario 2: Economic growth for the whole year is about 5.5%, the fourth quarter needs to increase by 8.8%; scenario 3: Economic growth for the whole year is about 6%, the fourth quarter needs to increase by 10.6%.
Regarding this content, the Prime Minister requested to choose a scenario of GDP growth of about 6% for the whole year to continue striving to achieve the highest possible results for 2023.
Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh chaired the meeting. Photo: NHAT BAC
Developing new fields
Concluding the meeting, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh requested that in the coming time, we continue to proactively and flexibly manage and synchronously and harmoniously coordinate policies, especially fiscal and monetary policies. At the same time, we must strongly promote the three growth drivers including investment, export and consumption.
According to the Prime Minister, it is necessary to promote public investment, private investment, foreign investment and strengthen public-private partnership (PPP). Accelerating the progress of key and important national infrastructure projects and soon completing and putting them into use is the task assigned by the Prime Minister to ministries, branches and localities.
The Prime Minister noted that investment is an important driving force for short-term growth, while contributing to creating a synchronous and modern infrastructure system to increase the capacity of the economy and attract private investment and FDI for sustainable development.
Regarding attracting FDI capital, the Prime Minister suggested that it is necessary to be selective, prioritize emerging and high-tech industries, and proactively train human resources to welcome new FDI projects.
Regarding export motivation, the Government leaders requested to maintain and consolidate traditional markets and actively expand new markets and take advantage of opportunities from signed FTAs. Regarding consumption, it is necessary to strongly develop the domestic market of more than 100 million people; promote the campaign "Vietnamese people prioritize using Vietnamese goods". Along with that, it is necessary to widely organize promotional programs to stimulate consumption nationwide; promote e-commerce. In particular, it is necessary to ensure the balance of supply and demand of goods, especially essential goods during holidays, Tet, and the end of the year.
To achieve the socio-economic development goals for 2023, the Prime Minister requested that in the coming time, it is necessary to strongly promote the development of industrial production, especially the processing and manufacturing industry, to become the main driving force of economic growth in the coming time. Along with that, it is necessary to take advantage of opportunities to export agricultural products, while ensuring national food security; resolutely, synchronously and effectively implement solutions to combat illegal fishing (IUU) to remove the EU's "yellow card".
The Head of Government also noted that ministries, branches and localities need to focus on taking advantage of opportunities, developing emerging industries and fields, creating momentum to promote growth, especially digital transformation such as semiconductor chip production, artificial intelligence, clean energy, green growth, circular economy, and sharing economy.
"Do not miss the opportunity to attract investment from upgrading relations and trade and investment agreements with partners" - the Prime Minister said, emphasizing the important task of reforming administrative procedures, removing difficulties for production and business activities of enterprises, as well as increasing the ability to absorb capital.
In addition, based on the reality of fire prevention and fighting, in the coming time, the Prime Minister requested relevant agencies to pay special attention to this work. Strictly and effectively implement the work of preventing corruption and negativity. At the same time, continue to decentralize, delegate power, strongly reform administrative procedures, and reduce compliance costs for people and businesses.
Save 500,000 billion VND to prepare for salary reform
According to information at the meeting, in recent years, in the context of both preventing and overcoming the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and ensuring social security, we have still saved 500,000 billion VND to prepare for salary reform in 2024, 2025 and 2026 according to Resolution 27 of the 12th Central Committee.
Assessing this as a great effort, the Prime Minister assigned the Ministry of Home Affairs to review and develop mechanisms and policies to implement the salary reform plan when approved by the Central Government.
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