Teams to follow Japan to the 2026 World Cup

Argentina is almost guaranteed a ticket to the 2026 World Cup.

With just over half of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers (excluding Europe and Oceania), the race for the top teams remains tight. However, a few teams in impressive form are holding the advantage.

After Japan became the first name to officially win a ticket to the biggest tournament on the planet (not counting the three host countries USA, Canada and Mexico), it is likely that three other names will be revealed after the March competition.

Asia Region

Based on the latest results, Iran are on track to become the second Asian team to qualify directly. The team has 19 points after 7 matches, 9 points ahead of the third-placed UAE, with only 3 matches left in the third qualifying round. Iran's goal difference (+9) is also better than the UAE (+6). Iran will only lose their direct ticket to the 2026 World Cup if they lose all three of their last matches, while the UAE also wins all 3 matches.

That is only a necessary condition, because then Iran and UAE will have the same number of points. The sufficient condition is that UAE's goal difference must also be better than Iran's. According to Football Index , Iran has a 99.99% chance of qualifying for the 2026 World Cup.

Uzbekistan, who have 16 points after 7 matches, can also put one hand on the World Cup ticket right after the upcoming match. Uzbekistan will face Iran on March 25, if they win this match, the Central Asian team will have 19 points.

If UAE wins against North Korea in the match at the same time, Uzbekistan will still be 6 points ahead of their opponents in the context of only two matches left in Group A. In case UAE cannot win against North Korea, and Uzbekistan wins against Iran, the Central Asian team will also officially qualify.

Iran is also almost guaranteed a ticket to the 2026 World Cup.

South America Region

In the 13th round of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers in the South American region (CONMEBOL), Argentina had a landmark 1-0 victory over Uruguay. Like Iran, only a crazy scenario in the last 5 matches will cause Argentina to lose their ticket to the 2026 World Cup.

For Argentina to lose their direct ticket - that is, fall out of the top 6 - they must lose all 5 remaining matches while Bolivia (currently ranked 7th) must also win all 5 matches. However, this is only a necessary condition.

In that case, Argentina and Bolivia would both have 28 points. Goal difference would then be the deciding factor. Argentina currently have a 31-goal advantage over Bolivia (+15 to -16).

For Bolivia to turn things around, they would need to not only win by a large margin, but Argentina would also need to lose heavily in the remaining five games. For example, if Bolivia won each game by a score of 3-0 (a total of +15 goals), Argentina would also have to lose heavily in the remaining five games to bring their goal difference below -1.

This is clearly almost impossible. Even just one point in the upcoming 14th round of matches will officially put Argentina on the list for the 2026 World Cup.

Oceania Region

Before Argentina and Iran play their decisive matches, the owner of the second ticket after Japan to the 2026 World Cup (excluding the host countries) will be decided on March 24. At home at Eden Park in Auckland, New Zealand will play the final of the 2026 World Cup qualifying round of the Oceania zone (OFC) against New Caledonia.

The huge difference in skill level between New Zealand and New Caledonia makes it hard to believe that any surprises will happen soon. New Zealand's elite squad playing in Europe, led by Chris Wood (Nottingham Forest), is superior to other opponents in Oceania.

In the semi-final match against Fiji, New Zealand won 7-0. On the other hand, New Caledonia is just a tiny team and has only been recognized by FIFA since 2004. In the current FIFA rankings, New Caledonia is ranked 152nd, behind the Philippines (ranked 150).