Exports exceed 2 billion USD, aiming for 3 billion USD mark
At present, only Vietnam has durian in the world. In the "one-man market" situation, durian prices are very high. In gardens in the West and Southeast, the price of Ri6 durian in bulk is up to 115,000 - 120,000 VND/kg, Thai durian is from 135,000 - 140,000 VND/kg.
Durian is becoming a key export product of Vietnam.
As a person who closely follows the developments of the fruit and vegetable export market, Mr. Dang Phuc Nguyen, General Secretary of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association (VINAFRUIT), said: The export results for the first 10 months of 2023 reached nearly 2.1 billion USD and it is forecasted that this year's total may reach 2.3 billion USD. Export turnover in the last 2 months of the year slowed down due to limited output due to the off-season.
"This is an incredibly high number, although last year I predicted that durian would soon become a billion-dollar export item. If the market continues to develop as it is now, next year durian will continue to break the records of 2023. Exports in 2024 could reach at least 3 billion USD. We are negotiating with our partner to open the door for frozen durian. If successful, Vietnam can "walk on two legs" like Thailand now, not just fresh durian. At that time, not only durians of the right size can be exported, but even those that are not up to standard can be separated to get frozen pulp for sale, contributing to product diversification and creating added value for durian," said Mr. Nguyen.
Professor Tran Van Hau, former senior lecturer at Can Tho University
Dr. Vo Huu Thoai, Director of the Southern Fruit Research Institute (SOFRI), analyzed: One kilogram of exported durian costs from 3 to 4 USD, one durian is at least 2 to 3 kilograms, on average one durian is worth 10 USD. Thanks to its high value, durian export turnover has grown miraculously in the first year of export. Durian is a perennial plant, it takes at least the fifth year onwards to be commercially harvested (the first fruit is in the fourth year).
Due to its high economic value, for many years, many people have prioritized planting durian trees or intercropping them with other trees in the form of short-term use to support long-term use. When durian trees mature, low-value trees will gradually be reduced, making room for durian. Anyone who travels on the Trung Luong - My Thuan highway regularly will see that these intercropped gardens are now gradually switching to being entirely durian. Thanks to this, Vietnam was able to seize the opportunity and boost durian exports in the first year the Chinese market opened.
"The remarkable growth of Vietnamese durian is just like the saying 'first distance, second speed', when Vietnam has a geographical advantage over other countries," Dr. Thoai commented.
Although there are no specific figures, it is estimated that the durian area for harvest in 2023 in Vietnam will only account for about half of the area reported earlier this year, which was 110,000 hectares, equivalent to about 60,000 hectares. In the following years, the durian area for harvest may increase by 10-15%, thereby helping Vietnam increase its supply and turnover.
The opponent is not only Thailand
Professor Tran Van Hau, former senior lecturer at Can Tho University, Vietnam's leading expert on durian, said: According to statistics in 2021, Indonesia's durian output is the world's leading with 1.37 million tons, Thailand is in second place with 1.1 million tons and Vietnam is third with only 0.67 million tons, followed by Malaysia, the Philippines, and Cambodia. However, Indonesia's durian mainly meets domestic consumption needs, with only a small amount of exports, so it is not competitive with durian supplying countries in the region.
Currently, China, the largest durian consumer market, has signed a protocol for exporting fresh durian with four countries: Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines. However, Malaysia is in a different segment and the Philippines has an insignificant output, so it is not a major direct competitor to Vietnam. The major and direct competitor to Vietnamese durian is Thailand and the potential competitor is Cambodia. These are two countries that grow the Monthong durian variety and use concentrated harvesting techniques followed by simultaneous ripening.
In 2022, Thailand's durian exports to China reached a value of 4.9 billion USD. This is a record revenue in the past 30 years and Thai durian accounts for 96% of the market share in the Chinese market. However, in just 8 months of 2023, Thailand exported nearly 4 billion USD. In recent years, Thailand's durian acreage has increased by an average of 8% per year.
Although currently leading, Professor Hau assessed that Thailand is very interested in the competition between Vietnamese and Philippine durian in the next 5 years. Thailand's advantage is its large area and output, having exported to the Chinese market for many years with full infrastructure and a stable market, compared to Vietnam which has only just begun to officially export to this market. As for Cambodian durian, this country is currently exporting to China under the Thai brand.
"To compete with these direct competitors, Vietnamese durian must exploit the advantage of the harvest season in the Central Highlands with large output and durian spread out in the Mekong Delta for export at a time when Thailand is scarce. In addition, quality must be ensured by harvesting at the right maturity level, without chemical residues, and post-harvest processing to ensure the best quality durian. Increasing export volume while maintaining the prestige of the growing region's brand and the national brand are important issues that gardeners and purchasing businesses must prioritize. In addition, the Government also needs to actively seek and expand consumption markets to make durian consumption more sustainable," Professor Hau pointed out.
Dr. Vo Huu Thoai also warned: Agriculture is a field with many uncertainties in natural conditions that affect cultivation in addition to market risk factors. Therefore, participants in the value chain need to be extremely cautious. Specifically, the Mekong Delta is a place that is very susceptible to drought and saltwater intrusion. The eastern provinces are lacking water due to drought. This can affect the durian growing area of Vietnam. Therefore, the areas that we have counted are unlikely to remain the same in the next 3-4 years. The second, more important thing is that we still only have one main market, China, so the risk is high. Therefore, it is necessary to continue expanding the market and promoting the processing of durian-related products.
Vietnam durian has the highest yield of up to 27.8 tons/ha
According to estimates from the Department of Crop Production (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development), the durian growing area in 2023 will reach 131,000 hectares, an increase of 20% compared to 2022, with an output of 1 million tons. Vietnam's main durian varieties are Monthong and Ri6. The total number of growing area codes granted by China is 422 with an area of 15,962 hectares. Durian productivity in Tien Giang is 27.8 tons/ha, Vinh Long is 9.9 tons/ha, Ben Tre is 13.8 tons/ha, Southeast is 9 tons/ha, Central Highlands is 15 tons/ha.
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