The era of US submarine dominance over China may be over

Experts say US submarines will no longer overwhelm China, as Beijing develops low-noise submarines and increases production capacity.

According to the US Department of Defense, the Chinese navy is operating six Type-094 ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs), equipped with JL-2 missiles with a range of about 8,000-9,000 km or JL-3 missiles with a range of more than 10,000 km, enabling it to attack the US mainland from a safe distance.

However, the Type-094 submarine has a major drawback: it emits a lot of noise when operating, making it easy for the enemy to detect. The US Office of Naval Intelligence estimates that this type of submarine produces up to 140 decibels of noise when operating at low frequencies, higher than the Delta III submarine developed by the Soviet Union in the 1970s.

Meanwhile, American submarines are often very quiet, making it difficult for the Chinese navy to track and detect them. However, this seems to be changing.

"China has made progress in submarine technology and the ability to detect underwater objects, thereby gradually narrowing the gap in the area where there was once the biggest difference between the Chinese military and the US," said Alastair Gale, an analyst for the Wall Street Journal (WSJ).

China's Long March 11 nuclear submarine off the coast of Qingdao city on April 23, 2019. Photo: Reuters — China's Long March 11 nuclear submarine off the coast of Qingdao city on April 23, 2019. Photo: *Reuters*

Gale said satellite images taken in early 2023 showed that China's Type-096 SSBN, the next generation of the Type-094 and under development, is equipped with a pump-jet propulsion system, instead of using a traditional propulsion system with 6- or 7-bladed exposed propellers.

The pump-jet design has many advantages such as high speed, low noise and does not create air bubbles like propellers, helping to increase the operating radius and reduce the possibility of being detected by the submarine. This is the first time that this noise reduction technology currently used by the US has appeared on a Chinese submarine.

The Type 096 has a larger hull than any of Beijing's current submarines. Its large size allows it to be fitted with sound-absorbing pads to reduce engine noise, similar to the design of Russian submarines.

According to analysts, much of China's current submarine technology comes from "reverse copying" diesel-electric submarines it bought from Russia after the Cold War. However, experts say China does not yet possess the latest Russian technology,

Russia-China ties have been tightened since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, prompting Western officials to worry that Moscow might share submarine technology secrets with Beijing, but there has been no sign so far that the two countries have done so.

"The Type-096 is comparable to the Dolgorukiy SSBN in terms of propulsion, sensors, and weapons, but resembles the improved Akula I in terms of noise reduction capabilities," said a report in August by the China Maritime Studies Institute, part of the US Naval War College (NWC).

Dolgorukiy is the Russian Navy's newest Borei-class SSBN, while Akula I is a nuclear attack submarine (SSN) model launched in the 1980s, once known as the "trump card" of the Soviet Navy during the Cold War.

According to naval technical intelligence analyst Christopher Carlson, co-author of the NWC report, the US Navy still has many difficulties in detecting and tracking the Akula-class submarines, even though this is no longer Moscow's most modern submarine model.

"The Type-096 submarine will also be very difficult to detect. It will become a nightmare for us," Carlson commented.

Chinese academic literature shows that the country is developing other noise reduction technologies for submarines, such as using new materials for the hull, or building more efficient nuclear reactors to power the engines.

In addition to qualitative improvements, China's submarine fleet is also being strengthened in quantity. The Huludao submarine yard inaugurated a second construction area in 2021, indicating that Beijing wants to increase the yard's production capacity.

China currently has 60 submarines, seven fewer than the United States, according to the Pentagon report. However, China’s annual submarine construction rate is expected to triple Washington’s current rate of 1.2 submarines a year, giving Beijing a fleet of 80 submarines by 2035.

With these developments, Gale believes that "the era of US submarine dominance over China is coming to an end." However, this does not mean that China will surpass or catch up with the US in the submarine field in the near future.

"It will be many years before China can put into service a new generation of nuclear submarines. It is also uncertain whether Beijing will make significant progress in its submarine development program," said a WSJ analyst.

Virginia-class submarine USS North Carolina in western Australia on August 4. Photo: AFP — Virginia-class submarine USS North Carolina in western Australia on August 4. Photo: *AFP*

According to Gale, submarine development typically takes years and involves building multiple prototypes before a final design is finalized. Projects can also be abruptly canceled for technical, economic, and political reasons. In 1995, the United States had to cancel the Seawolf-class nuclear attack submarine program due to high costs, building only three instead of the originally planned 29.

The Chinese Navy has not announced a time for the Type-096 submarine to be put into service. The NWC report stated that this type of submarine could be put into service in 2030, as previously estimated by the US Department of Defense.

Analysts also said that the US's Virginia-class nuclear attack submarine or Columbia-class SSBN under development is still "a generation ahead" of the Chinese vessel, in terms of noise reduction technology, engines, weapons systems and many other aspects.

“However, China does not necessarily need to try to match US submarine capabilities,” Gale said. “By building submarines that are harder to detect and producing them in large numbers, Beijing will force Washington to spend more resources on monitoring its vessels.”

Another disadvantage for the US is that Washington currently does not have anti-submarine patrol aircraft permanently stationed in the Asia-Pacific region, but often rotates the "submarine hunter killer" P-8 Poseidon through a base in Okinawa, Japan, to perform this mission.

"We know where the Chinese submarines are, but whether we can track them or not depends on the resource issue," said a recently retired anti-submarine warfare officer.