Darkness that enveloped Israel earlier this year revealed just how vulnerable the country’s energy system is. For hours, neighborhoods in Tel Aviv, nearby Petah Tikva and the southern city of Beersheba were without power as trains ground to a halt and the government compiled a list of essential equipment needed in the event of a prolonged blackout.
The disruption has been blamed on a number of factors, and while an international hacking group is trying to claim responsibility, whatever the cause, it underscores the fragility that has kept the country’s national security chiefs up at night for decades.
Smoke rises amid ongoing cross-border fighting between Hezbollah and Israeli forces in Kiryat Shmona, northern Israel, June 2024. Photo: JPost
Former Israeli deputy national security adviser Chuck Freilich told Politico that escalating tensions on the border with Lebanon could damage the Jewish state's power grid.
This week, Israeli forces struck more than 270 targets of the Iran-backed Hezbollah group in southern Lebanon.
“If Hezbollah decides to attack power plants and other sites, that’s a big problem,” said Mr. Freilich. “They have precision missiles that can target such infrastructure, and it’s hard to run a modern country without electricity and without computers.”
Gas
As a country with few natural resources, Israel has long been concerned about energy. The vast majority of its power plants run on natural gas. But one of Israel’s major success stories in recent years has been its success in weaning itself off foreign imports after discovering an estimated 1 trillion cubic metres of gas off its coast – equivalent to about 70 years of its current consumption.
That gas flow is also a diplomatic tool in the fight against isolation efforts, with neighboring countries buying large volumes of gas from Israel, according to Elai Rettig, associate professor of energy geopolitics at Bar-Ilan University in Tel Aviv.
“For Jordan and Egypt, they can’t boycott Israel at this point because Israel is the one that keeps the lights on in Amman and Cairo, and some people think that has tempered their response and limited how much they can criticize Israel,” said Rettig. “Egypt has been experiencing three to four blackouts a day and about 70 percent of Jordan’s energy is produced with gas from Israel.”
The escalating conflict with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon is now threatening the status quo there. The Tamar field – one of three major natural gas reserves – has been temporarily shut down due to safety concerns due to its proximity to the Gaza Strip.
Meanwhile, the larger Leviathan mine near the northern border could be targeted by missile strikes.
Israel's largest power plant near Hadera is set to be largely converted to run on gas from 2022. Photo: JPost
“One of the reasons Israel is trying to avoid a two-front war, against Hezbollah and Hamas at the same time, is because they cannot let both Tamar and Leviathan close at the same time,” said Mr. Rettig.
“They have no alternative to gas. But if the other side attacks those gas fields, they are hurting their friends. So such cooperation in the gas sector is also a source of deterrence.”
Oil
Access to crude oil, gasoline and diesel has long been a headache for Israeli policymakers, and Arab-led embargoes following regional wars in 1967 and 1973 caused severe energy crises. In response, Israeli security agencies began a secret program to trade weapons for oil from Africa.
While Israel's exact oil import statistics are a state secret, it is estimated that Azerbaijan has now emerged as Israel's top partner after selling Israel $300 million in crude oil in January alone. Azerbaijan is a major crude oil producer and a member of OPEC+.
“Israel values Azerbaijan as a vital ally in the majority Muslim world, providing not only strategic depth but also vital energy security.”
Mr. Ayaz Rzayev - Topchubashov Center in Baku.
“Israel values Azerbaijan as a key ally in the Muslim-majority world, providing not only strategic depth but also vital energy security,” said Ayaz Rzayev, a research fellow at the Baku-based Topchubashov Center. “For Azerbaijan, the relationship with Israel has provided access to advanced military technology, helping it maintain a significant technological edge in the region.”
But even that relationship is becoming more uncertain as the war in Gaza escalates, Mr Rzayev said, because “Azerbaijan also attaches considerable importance to its solidarity with Muslim countries”.
Türkiye, Azerbaijan's closest ally, has been at the forefront of supporting the Palestinians since the conflict erupted, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan imposing an unprecedented trade embargo on Israel.
“The big question is what the Turks will do,” said Mr. Freilich, a former Israeli national security official. “Most of Israel’s oil goes through pipelines to Türkiye, and if they want to, they can cut off the supply.”
Red Sea
Israel is balancing the threat of direct attacks on its infrastructure with growing pressure on its partners, and has increasingly seen its supply lines targeted – most notably by Iran-backed Houthi militias in the Red Sea.
The Houthis have been harassing shipping since last year, despite Western powers deploying a naval coalition to protect trade routes through the waters, causing prices of goods and fuel to rise.
While the spillover effects have been limited so far, regional gas markets are more affected and could make shipping more expensive and complicated, said Dan Marks, an energy security expert at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
“Given that the global LNG market has tightened since Russia launched its military campaign in Ukraine and is likely to continue to do so until 2025, this could have an impact on prices,” Marks said. “Egypt’s positioning as a regional gas hub and domestic political pressure around energy prices, combined with the impact on Suez Canal revenues, means Cairo has some incentive to continue to cooperate with Israel and push for a ceasefire.”
Meanwhile, a more direct conflict with Iran looms after Tehran vowed retaliation for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, which Iran blamed on Israel.
Washington will seek to prevent Iran from evading sanctions to sell oil, thereby reducing supply to global markets, a State Department spokesperson told Politico earlier this month.
For Israel, however, the combined prospect of a power outage and a prolonged standoff as the one-year anniversary of the renewed conflict with Hamas in the Gaza Strip marks could dampen morale, experts say.
Israeli main battle tanks during an operation to investigate and destroy tunnels in the central corridor of Gaza. Photo: The Telegraph
Without electricity, Israelis would struggle to receive vital instructions from the Home Front Command and other agencies in an emergency. The Home Front Command's siren system requires a constant connection to the power grid.
In recent years, smartphone apps have become the primary tool for providing immediate warnings of enemy rocket, missile and aircraft launches into areas of Israel.
In the event of a power outage, residents would be faced with the reality of hundreds of missiles being launched towards targets in their residential areas without receiving any basic instructions.
“Israelis are not used to power outages,” said Rettig, a professor at Bar-Ilan University in Tel Aviv. “We have an average of three hours of blackouts a year, so the thought of a two-day blackout makes Israelis panic and buy generators.”
While that caused consternation in places like Tel Aviv, Petah Tikva and Beersheba earlier this year, it is a dilemma Gazans are familiar with – 10 months of fighting have damaged the strip’s energy infrastructure, and even where electricity is available, it is only available in limited quantities.
The United Nations has called on Israel to stop blocking fuel supplies to generators that power everything from hospitals to bakeries. But with talks on both sides of the conflict failing to produce a deal, hopes for peace are fading.
Minh Duc (According to Politico EU, CTech News)
Source: https://www.nguoiduatin.vn/diem-yeu-cua-israel-20424082820250746.htm
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