Opportunities for transformation and prospects in cooperation with Vietnam

Although the road to a bright future is still full of thorns, Africa is still "diligently" showing the world the continent's determination to be self-reliant and innovative.

Development potential

Politically , Africa is witnessing a period of “generational leadership transition”, with young leaders thinking autonomously and actively protecting national sovereignty. Many African countries are gradually moving away from Western powers, choosing an independent and non-aligned development path, without dependence. Although this trend brings prospects for unity and self-reliance, it also makes countries in the region face great challenges in maintaining a balance in relations between Africa and the major powers while ensuring internal stability.

In terms of foreign relations , the return of US President Donald Trump with his "America First" slogan and unilateral foreign policy will lead to major adjustments in US-Africa relations. Compared to the Biden administration, Mr. Trump is likely to significantly reduce the priority of democracy and human rights on the continent, leading to reduced pressure on countries considered "dictatorial". Washington's influence in Africa, which has declined in recent years, will now continue to be challenged by the expansion of Russian and Chinese influence. Moscow is strengthening military and economic cooperation in strategic regions, while Beijing maintains its position as the region's largest trading partner. At the same time, France and the EU's withdrawal from their traditional roles in French-speaking African countries will leave a power vacuum, creating conditions for other powers to expand their influence.

In addition , Africa’s security situation in the coming time will continue to face many challenges, including terrorist threats, internal conflicts, and resource disputes. However, with increasingly strong cooperation between regional countries and major powers (such as Russia and China), Africa can find temporary solutions to cope. In the long term, investing in sustainable development and strengthening regional institutions will be the key to improving regional security.

Economically, The United Nations WESP 2025 report shows that Africa will only achieve modest economic growth in 2025, at 3.7%; continuing to increase to 4.0% in 2026. The reason is the recovery of key economies such as Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa and regional integration efforts under the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement (AfCFTA). The economic growth prospects of African countries depend heavily on the export of raw materials and commodities. In the continent's least developed countries (LDCs), typically Chad, Central African Republic, Malawi, South Sudan, Sudan... the growth forecast for the period 2025-2026 will still not be enough to increase per capita income.

Many African countries are gradually moving away from Western powers, choosing an independent and non-aligned development path. (Source: NPR)

Vietnam-Africa cooperation in 2024 and prospects for 2025

In 2024, Africa will continue to be a key export market for Vietnam thanks to its suitable commodity structure, helping Vietnam expand its market share in the coming time. By the end of 2024, Vietnam's total import-export turnover to Africa will reach 6.9 billion USD, an increase of 19.4% compared to 2023, of which exports will reach 3.1 billion USD and imports will reach 3.8 billion USD.

Vietnam's export turnover to all markets in the region has recovered and grown positively. South Africa is still Vietnam's largest trading partner, followed by Senegal. In terms of export goods, the structure of Vietnam's strongest export goods to this region includes: 1) Agricultural products: By the end of 2024, Vietnam's rice has surpassed major competitors such as Thailand and India and has won many large export contracts in the African market. 2) Seafood: According to the Asia-Africa Market Department, Ministry of Industry and Trade, Egypt and the markets of Ivory Coast, Cameroon... are assessed to have much room for Vietnamese seafood. Vietnam continues to import machinery, gasoline, raw materials (raw cashew nuts) from Africa to meet production needs for domestic consumption and re-export.

Although Vietnam has had positive export growth in value-added sectors such as electronics and mechanical engineering, exports are still largely dependent on a number of key products such as agricultural products, textiles, footwear, and telephones. Although agriculture, forestry, and fisheries are Vietnam's strengths and Africa is a potential market, this continent still accounts for a small share of Vietnam's exports (in 2024, the African market accounted for 1.8% of Vietnam's total exports, of which Asia was the largest with 48.2%, America 23.7%, Europe 11.7%, and Oceania 1.4%). The current difficulties for businesses are the lack of information on market demand and import standards, and the lack of support for connecting businesses. Moreover, the geographical distance is far, so the cost of transporting goods from Vietnam to Africa is also quite high.

Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Do Hung Viet received and worked with the delegation of ambassadors from African countries to discuss "Enhancing Vietnam-Africa economic cooperation", September 2024. (Photo: Quang Hoa)

In addition, the number of African countries investing in Vietnam is still small, from 1988 to the end of 2024, only 18 countries in this region invested in Vietnam. In 2024, there will be 36 newly licensed FDI projects invested by Africa in Vietnam: i) Leading the way is Seychelles, with 27 newly licensed projects, total registered FDI capital of 2,578.21 million USD. ii) Next is Nigeria, with 2 newly licensed projects, 71 capital contributions and share purchases, total investment capital reaching 3,908 million USD. iii) In addition, there are a number of other African countries also investing in Vietnam such as South Africa, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Mauritius... In general, the amount of investment capital from Africa to Vietnam is still very limited.

On the contrary, Vietnamese enterprises have not invested much in Africa. Enterprises have only invested in a few countries such as Cameroon, Burundi, Tanzania, Mozambique, Algeria, etc. Typically, Vietnam has invested about 8.16 million USD in South Africa. In addition, Viettel's Movitel telecommunications joint venture project in Mozambique is also a bright spot in Vietnam's foreign investment in Africa. To promote investment between the two sides, in September 2024, Deputy Foreign Minister Do Hung Viet met with the delegation of African ambassadors in a working session with the theme "Strengthening Vietnam-Africa economic cooperation". The goal of both is that Vietnam can take advantage of the opportunities of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) to effectively exploit the potential of the common market on this continent...

Regarding cultural, educational and tourism cooperation, in May 2024, the African Embassies in Hanoi organized the Africa Day Celebration. Vietnam has also supported many African countries in the fields of education and high-quality human resource training. In the tourism sector, the number of tourists from Africa to Vietnam accounts for 0.3% of the total number of international tourists. In 2024, Vietnam welcomed more than 44,400 tourists from Africa. Although an increase compared to the previous year, the number of tourists from this region to Vietnam is still quite modest compared to other places in the world.

In addition, in the context of many African countries implementing a strategy of economic diversification, emphasizing on reducing dependence on the mining industry (minerals, oil, gas), and transitioning to green agriculture, Vietnam has become an important partner in promoting green agriculture here. Cooperation projects focus on transferring environmentally friendly agricultural production technology, improving crop varieties, and developing sustainable agricultural systems. A typical example is the Vietnam-Ethiopia cooperation project in developing the organic coffee value chain, helping to increase income for local farmers and improve the quality of export products.

In 2024, Vietnam sent more than 50 agricultural experts to work in Tanzania and Mozambique, supporting the development of irrigation systems and high-yield rice cultivation. Vietnam provided technical support and crop varieties to a number of countries such as Kenya, Nigeria, Ghana, etc., thereby helping to increase agricultural productivity by 20% compared to 2023. In addition, Vietnam also cooperated in developing water-saving irrigation technology and sustainable land management in Kenya and Rwanda; helping these two countries continue to lead in applying environmentally friendly farming techniques, increasing food production by 15% compared to 2023.

In terms of cooperation in developing the energy sector in a green and sustainable direction , Vietnam Oil and Gas Corporation, such as PetroVietnam, has signed cooperation contracts worth 1.2 billion USD with African partners. In oil and gas exploitation projects in Angola and Nigeria, Vietnam also transfers environmentally friendly exploitation technology. This cooperation not only increases exploitation efficiency but also promotes environmental protection, minimizing negative impacts from heavy industry. Vietnam has also invested in renewable energy projects in Africa, especially in the fields of solar energy and hydropower, bringing significant economic benefits to both sides.

Vietnamese female peacekeepers in Africa. (Source: NVCC)

It can be said that in 2025, cooperation between Vietnam and Africa will continue to expand, especially in green agriculture development and sustainable resource exploitation. In particular, Vietnam is expected to increase training programs and technical assistance for the continent. Investment projects in agriculture and resources are also expected to grow by about 15-20%, contributing to the sustainable development of both sides.

It can be said that Africa is undergoing important changes in politics, economics and international relations, opening up many opportunities but also posing many challenges. The shift in the balance of power, the transformation of the development model and adjustments in foreign policies of major powers will shape the future of this region. In particular, in that context, the cooperation between Vietnam and Africa will continue to expand, especially in trade, investment and sustainable development. Although there are many barriers, with a solid foundation of cooperation and appropriate strategies, the two sides can effectively exploit the available potential, towards an increasingly substantive and sustainable partnership.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/chau-phi-tren-hanh-trinh-tu-chu-va-doi-moi-ky-iii-co-hoi-chuyen-minh-va-trien-vong-trong-hop-tac-voi-viet-nam-308105.html