For about a month now, Mr. Minh Nam - a long-time stock investor in Ho Chi Minh City - has not traded any stocks, but only buys and accumulates them when prices drop sharply. Nam's stock portfolio includes a few stocks in the securities, public investment and real estate groups - all of which are losing money, but he still believes in opportunities from now until the end of the year. "I have held stocks for many months now because I find it too difficult to trade at this stage," Mr. Nam explained.
Making a bottom?
Many other investors also admit that short-term stock trading - surfing during this period is not simple. Many investors begin to believe in the theory that "the speculative market is born in gloom, grows on skepticism, develops on optimism and dies of satisfaction". Therefore, they choose to buy good, potential stocks and then "turn off the app", waiting for the market to be active to take profit.
Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh, Head of Macro and Market Strategy Department - VNDIRECT Securities Joint Stock Company, said that investors need to maintain a long-term vision, when the market corrects, it is a good opportunity to accumulate stocks. The prospects of the Vietnamese stock market in the final period of the year and the scenario of VN-Index surpassing the 1,300 point mark this year are completely feasible.
According to this expert, the Vietnamese stock market is having supportive factors, such as: The US Federal Reserve (FED) is expected to lower the operating interest rate by about 0.75 percentage points in the last months of the year; the pressure on exchange rates and inflation has cooled down, helping the State Bank to have conditions to shift its target to prioritizing economic growth, increasing money supply and maintaining interest rates at low levels. In addition, the business results of many listed enterprises continue to improve and progress is being made in the process of upgrading the market. The market peak always appears during the period of active trading and the bottom is formed when liquidity is quiet...
At the stock talk show with the theme "What opportunities for stocks at the end of the year?" organized by Nguoi Lao Dong Newspaper last week, experts analyzed opportunities in specific industry groups to give investors more perspective in choosing stocks.
Mr. Le Tu Quoc Hung, Senior Manager, Analysis Center - Rong Viet Securities Company, commented that the prospect of VN-Index reaching 1,300 points is possible although it is still difficult in the short term. At this time, if investors choose to hold stocks longer and "bear the heat" in the short term, they will have results at the end of the year, coming from the prospect of profit growth of enterprises in the second half of the year that can reach double digits.
"If the VN-Index falls further, this will be an opportunity to accumulate stocks, with an asset allocation strategy appropriate to the risk level of each investor," Mr. Hung said.
Investors are finding it increasingly difficult to choose stocks to buy and sell in the context of a gloomy market and depleted cash flow. Photo: Hoang Trieu
"Examining" stock industry groups
In fact, the liquidity of the stock market is currently not positive when the trading value per session is less than 15,000 billion VND, only half of the previous months. Notably, in the last two sessions of the week on September 12 and 13, the liquidity per session only reached 11,000 - 12,000 billion VND - a record low in recent months.
Mr. Tran Quoc Toan - Director of Branch 2, Headquarters of Mirae Asset Securities Company - said that current liquidity is not good for the market. The P/E valuation of VN-Index is not cheap but reasonable. Expectations of a booming market can still happen with positive factors supporting from interest rates remaining at low levels; regulations on removing bottlenecks for foreign investors to buy stocks without deposit (pre-funding) can be implemented early at the end of September; FED reduces interest rates...
Among the stock groups, many investors expect the banking group to be more active after an accumulation period of 6 months to 1 year. Mr. Phan Thanh Nghiep, Senior Customer Service Director of Ho Chi Minh City Branch - DNSE Securities Company, also agrees with the above view. He cited some banking stocks such as TCB, STB, VPB with P/B valuations below 1.2 - a safe criterion for buying and holding in the medium and long term.
"The difficulties of the banking industry have been reflected in stock prices in recent times. When stock prices have bottomed out and investors decide to hold for the long term, it will be an opportunity, with brighter profit growth prospects at the end of the year," said Mr. Le Tu Quoc Hung.
However, Dr. Nguyen Anh Vu, Head of the Finance Department - Banking University of Ho Chi Minh City, has a different perspective. He believes that strong credit growth from now until the end of the year is forecast to help banks maintain their profits at a positive level. However, what needs to be concerned is that the circular on debt restructuring of the banking industry will be effective until the end of 2024, after that what will the bad debt picture be like?
Dr. Vu analyzed: "The profits of many banks in the past were largely contributed by the insurance sales segment through the banking channel. Up to now, this segment is still facing difficulties, affecting non-interest income. Therefore, bank stocks will hardly have a breakthrough."
Meanwhile, experts from VNDIRECT believe that investors should take advantage of this period to increase the proportion of stocks around the support zone of 1,250 points. Investors should pay attention to stocks of industries with positive growth prospects at the end of the year such as banking, securities, import and export (textiles, seafood, wood products), industrial park real estate, etc.
Still an attractive investment channel
Gold prices have been hitting new highs since the beginning of the year, deposit interest rates have been rising, and corporate bonds and real estate are warming up... However, Dr. Nguyen Anh Vu believes that young people are not currently interested in investing in gold. Real estate only has a few segments that are warming up, such as apartments; while land and townhouses are still very gloomy. Corporate bonds have yet to regain the trust of many investors...
Meanwhile, stocks are still an attractive investment channel in the long term. This explains why in the first 8 months of 2024, up to 1.4 million securities trading accounts were opened. Cash flow from individual investors is waiting for the market to enter a wave, liquidity can increase strongly again.
"Technology and the explosion of financial services and utilities have helped young people, office workers and many other classes access financial investment channels more easily. With just a small amount of money, you can participate in the stock market - a relatively attractive channel compared to other investment channels. In addition, investment funds are also where investors entrust their money to professional investors" - Dr. Nguyen Anh Vu commented.
Source: https://nld.com.vn/chon-co-phieu-cho-song-cuoi-nam-196240915194916177.htm
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