Limited supply cannot meet market demand
According to data from Batdongsan.com.vn, demand for apartments in Ho Chi Minh City in the second quarter of 2024 increased by nearly 58%, focusing on the segment under VND40 million/m2. However, the market's new supply is focusing on the price range above VND55 million/m2.
Similarly, data from DKRA Group also shows that in the second quarter of 2024, Ho Chi Minh City had nearly 8,000 apartments joining the new supply, causing the primary supply of the whole market to increase by 12% compared to the previous quarter and 8% compared to the same period in 2023. However, the new supply brought to the market mostly came from high-end and luxury apartment projects, with the highest selling price recorded at nearly 500 million VND per square meter.
While supply is leaning towards the high-end segment, successful transactions are concentrated in affordable apartment projects, priced from 40 - 55 million VND/m2. Most of the projects with good liquidity are projects that have completed legal procedures, rapid construction progress, and convenient connections to the city center. Transactions in this segment in Ho Chi Minh City and neighboring provinces are accounting for 62% of the total consumption of new supply in the whole market in the first 6 months of 2024.
Affordable apartments still maintain good liquidity
With strong demand in the segment, the market still has a gap in supply as affordable products serving real housing needs are constantly in short supply. Particularly in Ho Chi Minh City, projects with selling prices under VND50 million/m2 are also becoming rare, with some remaining projects in the East and West of the city.
In some higher priced projects, although investors offer many incentives such as discounts, interest rate support, and gifts, they still do not meet the actual needs of real home buyers. Projects in the affordable price range also quickly sold out in the first days of opening for sale, with transactions of 70-90% of the product basket.
With the above demand, many brokerage firms predict that in the next phase of sales, affordable projects will increase their selling prices by up to 10%. Depending on the general market developments, as well as developments in supply in the coming time.
Forecasting supply in the second half of 2024, Ms. Trang Bui, General Director of Cushman & Wakefield, said that from now until the end of the year, the supply of apartments in Ho Chi Minh City will continue to be small. Projects launched at this time are a big advantage. Primary prices will continue to increase in the coming time.
In addition, deposit interest rates, real estate credit balances increasing, and laws taking effect from August 1, 2024, are positive signs for the recovery of the apartment market. The Government's drastic actions in issuing mechanisms and policies have contributed to accelerating the market's recovery process in 2024. Up to now, it can be said that the market has overcome the most difficult period and has many premises to rise, creating a foundation for a new development cycle.
According to Mr. Nguyen Van Dinh, Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association, from now until the end of the year, the selling price of primary apartments will continue to increase by an average of about 3-8%. The reason is that the short-term supply is increasingly decreasing, especially in the low-end and mid-range segments.
Waiting for social housing projects
With low prices, suitable for real home buyers, many social housing projects in Ho Chi Minh City have been "sold out" immediately after being launched. Therefore, when the commercial market has not solved the supply problem, many experts still expect a breakthrough development of social housing.
However, according to the Ho Chi Minh City Department of Construction, the development of social housing in the city is facing many difficulties and obstacles. The investment procedures for social housing projects are still complicated; the procedures for commercial housing have even more steps; capital sources...
Currently, the Ministry of Construction is finalizing a draft Decree detailing a number of articles of the Housing Law on the development and management of social housing, including instructions on how to calculate the rental price range for self-invested and constructed social housing for workers in industrial parks. Therefore, the Department of Construction will advise the Ho Chi Minh City People's Committee to issue regulations on the rental price range for social housing built by individuals after the above Decree is issued.
Many social housing projects are being implemented, promising to improve supply for the real estate market in Ho Chi Minh City.
According to the Ho Chi Minh City Housing Development Program for the 2021-2030 period and the Government's Project on investing in the construction of at least 1 million social housing apartments for low-income earners and industrial park workers, in the 2021-2030 period, Ho Chi Minh City sets a development target by 2030 of investing in the construction of about 69,700 - 93,000 social housing units. Of which, in the 2021-2025 period, about 26,200 - 35,000 units will be built, and in the 2026-2030 period, about 43,300 - 58,000 units will be built.
Regarding implementation results, in the first 6 months of 2024, Ho Chi Minh City has completed construction of 2 social housing projects with a scale of 610 apartments, total floor area of 50,831 m2. Specifically, Nguyen Son social housing area, Binh Chanh district (242 apartments) and Thanh My Loi ward worker accommodation project, Thu Duc city (368/1040 apartments).
Accumulated from the beginning of the 2021 term to June 2024, Ho Chi Minh City has completed 4 projects, including 3 social housing projects and 1 worker accommodation project with a scale of 1,233 apartments, with a total floor area of 112,385 m2. In addition, Ho Chi Minh City has 6 projects under construction, including 5 social housing projects and 1 worker accommodation project with a scale of 4,386 apartments.
Specifically, the residential area project in Vinh Loc A commune, Binh Chanh district (1,344 units); the social housing project - commercial housing area at the old Binh Phu market land, district 6 (390 units); the Tan Binh social housing complex, Tan Binh district (168 units); the project at 324 Ly Thuong Kiet, district 10 (1,254 units); Long Truong ward residential area, Thu Duc city (558 units); workers' accommodation in Thanh My Loi ward, Thu Duc city (672/1,040 units).
Source: https://www.congluan.vn/tp-hcm-can-ho-vua-tui-tien-van-giu-thanh-khoan-tot-cho-nha-o-xa-hoi-dot-pha-nguon-cung-post303792.html
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