Polls show the 2024 US presidential election is very tight. Photo: New York Times According to current polls, the 2024 US presidential election is very close. In a recent national survey by the New York Times/Siena College, candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are tied. Meanwhile, the New York Times average of polls shows Ms. Harris leading, but only by 2%. This means that everything and every state is equally important. This is a contest of individual voters, where entire states and key voter groups are trending differently from the past, making it difficult for experts to determine exactly which states will decide the outcome of the election. While every state is important, the New York Times has listed four of the seven swing states that the newspaper thinks readers might pay more attention to.Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania
What’s important is worth mentioning three times, and Pennsylvania is certainly the most important swing state, not to be overlooked or ignored in the 2024 election. Pennsylvania is the largest battleground state with 19 electoral votes, so winning Pennsylvania is considered the key to putting each candidate on the easiest path to the White House. According to AdImpact, both campaigns are spending the most on TV and radio advertising in the state, with $138 million from September to Election Day on November 5. Harris and Trump have also spent the most time in Pennsylvania among the battleground states. Since the vice president entered the race for the White House on July 21, she has held or attended public events in the state on nine days, while Trump has spent eight. That number doesn't just include campaign events, as both candidates were in Pennsylvania twice: at the September 10 debate in Philadelphia and the September 11 memorial service in Shanksville.
Pennsylvania is certainly the most important swing state that cannot be overlooked or ignored in the 2024 election. Photo: New York Times. The presidency belonged to Mr. Trump when he won Pennsylvania in 2016. The same scenario repeated itself with Mr. Joe Biden in 2020. Of course, there will be candidates who get 270 electoral votes without Pennsylvania, but that path will certainly be difficult and complicated.Wisconsin
Imagine a path to victory for Harris. According to a New York Times poll, the vice president currently leads by 2 percentage points in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. If on election night, she wins all three states and has a single electoral vote from Nebraska, and the swing states vote less than expected, she will be the next White House owner. That makes Wisconsin and its 10 electoral votes crucial to the vice president, who has campaigned there three times since becoming the Democratic nominee. But Trump also needs Wisconsin, to fill the void if the former president loses Pennsylvania. In 2020, Wisconsin was considered a “turning point” state that helped Biden take the lead, winning there by less than 21,000 votes. The state is shaping up to be a close contest, with both Democrats and Republicans questioning Ms Harris’s polling advantage. Michigan is also a key swing state, but it has historically leaned Democratic, as seen in the 2022 midterms and 2020 presidential elections.North Carolina
Trump’s advisers believe the former president’s victory will be shaped by Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. The Democratic presidential nominee has not won North Carolina since 2008. According to the New York Times polling average, Trump leads by less than 1 percentage point, and it is unclear how the scandal involving Mark Robinson, a Republican gubernatorial candidate endorsed by Trump, will affect the former president.
The Trump campaign is keeping a close eye on North Carolina. Photo: New York Times. The Trump campaign is keeping a close eye on the state. The former president has spent at least six days campaigning there since the Democrats switched candidates, more than any state except Pennsylvania. With 16 electoral votes, North Carolina — where Harris and many other Democrats are campaigning — will help the vice president make up for his loss in Pennsylvania.Georgia
For Trump, Georgia is a must-win state. Georgia went for Biden in 2020. According to the New York Times polling average, Trump is currently doing the best there among seven battleground states. Georgia also illustrates a surprising trend for the 2024 election: White states like Michigan and Wisconsin seem to favor Harris, while more diverse states are leaning slightly toward Trump. But the jury is still out. Harris’s campaign is betting that a surge in the vice president’s support in Atlanta and rural areas could help her win the state. She has now spent four days campaigning in Georgia, two more than Trump.Not just these 4 states
Two other key battleground states are Arizona (11 electoral votes) and Nevada (6 votes). Both campaigns value these states, but given the size of the electoral vote and the winning scenarios for the two candidates listed above, they are less likely to be decisive. However, Arizona and Nevada will still provide some clues about the final outcome. The same goes for “blue” states like California and New York, which will help determine control of the House of Representatives. Therefore, the New York Times believes that readers cannot take their eyes off any of these states in the 2024 election.znews.vn
Source: https://znews.vn/4-bang-dao-dong-co-the-dinh-doat-bau-cu-tong-thong-my-2024-post1500235.html
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