With strong economic growth, Vietnam is predicted to be among the top upper-middle-income countries by 2025. Photo: Quynh Danh.
According to CEBR, Vietnam will not only achieve an impressive GDP of 450 billion USD , up one place from 2023 to 34th place on the World Economic League Table (WELT), but also effectively control inflation at 4.1% in 2024. "This is in contrast to the strong increase in inflation in many economies around the world," CEBR commented.Forecast to surpass Singapore by 2029
Notably, the size of Vietnam's economy is forecast to surpass Singapore's by 2029 with an estimated GDP of 676 billion USD , compared to the island nation's 656 billion USD . CEBR forecasts that Vietnam's economy will continue to maintain a strong growth rate in the coming years, with an average annual growth rate of 5.8% in the 2025-2029 period. From 2030 to 2039, the average GDP growth rate will decrease slightly but still remain at 5.6%/year. By 2039, Vietnam's GDP is forecast to reach 1,410 billion USD , bringing Vietnam to 25th place globally. At that time, in Southeast Asia, Vietnam will only be behind Indonesia (10th) and the Philippines (22nd), far surpassing countries such as Thailand (31st), Malaysia (34th) and Singapore (35th). CEBR also forecasts that the size of global GDP by the end of 2024 will reach about 110,000 billion USD and this figure could double to 221,000 billion USD by 2039. |
Vietnam's GDP will reach 1,410 billion USD , rising to 25th place in the world by 2039. Source: CEBR.
Join the upper middle-income group by 2025
In July, data from the World Bank showed that Vietnam's GDP in 2023 reached nearly 430 billion USD , with an average income per capita of about 4,347 USD . According to the latest classification applied from July 1, 2023 to July 1, 2024, countries are divided into 4 income groups: below 1,135 USD (low income), 1,136- 4,465 USD (lower middle income), 4,466- 13,845 USD (upper middle income) and above 13,845 USD (high income). With the current average income level, Vietnam has not yet entered the upper middle income group. However, CEBR forecasts that Vietnam's GDP per capita will reach 4,783 USD (ranked 124th in the world) by 2025, qualifying for the upper middle income group. Accordingly, this figure is expected to continue to increase to 6,463 USD in 2029 (ranked 117th) and 12,727 USD in 2039, bringing Vietnam into the global top 100. According to CEBR, Vietnam's GDP per capita (by purchasing power parity - PPP) in 2024 is estimated at 16,193 USD , but is still classified as a lower middle-income country. In terms of GDP per capita, Vietnam currently ranks 6th in Southeast Asia, after Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia. This ranking is expected to remain unchanged in 2024. However, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast, by 2026, Vietnam will rise to 4th place in the ASEAN-6 group, with GDP per capita reaching 6,140 USD , surpassing Indonesia and the Philippines, behind only Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand.
Accelerating development thanks to investment from many international "giants"
Currently, Vietnam has maintained one of the highest economic growth rates after the pandemic, with a large economic openness thanks to its participation in many bilateral and multilateral free trade agreements (FTAs). As of May this year, Vietnam has signed and implemented 16 FTAs, including the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the Vietnam-EU Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), and FTAs with countries such as Korea, Japan, and ASEAN. As of November 2024, Vietnam has established comprehensive strategic partnerships with nine countries, including China, the US, Russia, Japan, India, Korea, Australia, France, and Malaysia. These partnerships play an important role in promoting economic and trade cooperation, while strengthening Vietnam's position in the global supply chain. Therefore, Vietnam has become an attractive destination for FDI capital flows. According to statistics from the Ministry of Planning and Investment, by the end of November, the country had 41,720 valid FDI projects with a total registered capital of nearly 497 billion USD . The accumulated realized capital of foreign investment projects is estimated at nearly 319 billion USD . This helps Vietnam to be in the top 15 developing countries attracting the largest FDI in the world, as shared by Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh at the National Conference in early December. Major corporations in the world such as Nvidia, Google, Foxconn, Meta, SpaceX and Trump Organization have all announced major investment plans in Vietnam. In particular, Nvidia will build the third artificial intelligence (AI) research center in the world in Vietnam, after the US and Taiwan (China). While Vietnam benefits from multinational companies diversifying their supply chains, CEBR experts warn that its reliance on export growth and high credit-to-GDP ratio could leave the economy vulnerable to global shocks. In today's economic environment, investment has become a familiar concept to most people. In order for readers to access the latest investment trends, Tri Thuc - Znews has created the topic of Investing through books - a place to record books, stories, and investment trends that have been and are taking place. In particular, popular investment fields include real estate, stocks, foreign exchange, and virtual currency... In addition to investment stories, Investing through books also includes knowledge about asset management and personal finance.
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