Stock Market Perspective Week Before April 30-May 1 Holiday: VN-Index Still in Risky State
There is a lot of negative information, so in general, VN-Index is in a risky state, with a decrease of 8% in 1 week that can stimulate bottom-fishing psychology for investors with high cash status.
The past trading week was a week of strong fluctuations for VN-Index, right from the first Monday session of the week, it lost nearly 60 points, breaking through many psychological levels such as 1,250 points, or 1,230 points - contrary to the predictions of many securities companies from last week, that it might not break through the 1,250 point mark. Although it recovered well in the next session, the following sessions continued to fall deeper. At the end of the week, the index lost 101.75 points, equivalent to 8% compared to the previous week.
Large-cap stocks continue to put pressure on the general market index and there have been no positive signs of rebalancing.
Liquidity improved to VND130,589 billion, up 36.1% compared to the previous week, showing increased selling pressure in many stock groups, but bottom-fishing demand also jumped in at low levels, of course, still at a cautious level due to the still-effective selling pressure. Foreign investors continued to net sell with a value of VND2,248,23 billion on HoSE, this is a series of consecutive net selling by foreign investors on HoSE.
During the week, investors continuously received negative information of a macro nature, such as the VND/USD exchange rate continuously hitting a historical high; Middle East tensions escalating; Foreign investors net selling.
In the general decline, the banking group became the group with the greatest influence on the index, when the first 3 positions of the top influence were the 3 largest bank codes, respectively BID (-7.05 points), CTG -5.69 points and VCB -5.64 points. Other industry groups also decreased sharply with a sudden increase in liquidity.
Macro factors are showing a lot of negative information, so in general, VN-Index is in a risky state. In the short term, the 8% decrease in 1 week can stimulate the bottom-fishing psychology of investors with high cash status, so the expectation is that VN-Index is nearing a technical recovery.
From a technical perspective, the index is supported by the 200-day MA (1,176) and the 200-week MA (1,181). After touching these important resistances for the first time, the VN-Index may recover.
According to HSC, in general, the short-term correction trend of the market is still continuing and the market is trying to regain the support level around MA200. If in the coming sessions, the market confirms violating this support level, the index may have to aim for a deeper target at 1,150 points.
VN-Index has returned to the wide accumulation channel of 1,150 points - 1,250 points and lost the momentum to form an uptrend, the market is likely to have a swing trend for a longer period of time.
Accordingly, new short-term buying positions are not recommended and risk management activities are still prioritized, especially when the market balance signal has not been established. Investment strategy should be cautious with short-term positions in this area when the adjustment pressure is still present.
As for investors with a medium and long-term vision based on the fundamentals of the business, they can wait for strong corrections to gradually explore new positions for potential stocks. Investors should divide the proportion to buy stocks of businesses with good foundations, positive business results prospects, but the stock price is falling to the cheap valuation zone.
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