VN-Index may surpass 1,450 points in 2024

On the optimistic side, many securities companies believe that the VN-Index may fluctuate around the 1,450-1,500 point range, but in a cautious scenario, the index will only approach the 1,300 point mark.

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In the most optimistic scenario, according to the 2024 Vietnam stock market assessment report, Mirae Asset Securities stated that in the scenario of a strong economic recovery and 2024 EPS growth of 13%, the VN-Index could trade at 1,400 points. If the economy grows very strongly with EPS increasing by 19.6%, the VN-Index could reach 1,500 points.

Also dividing into two scenarios for the stock market this year, Tien Phong Securities (TPS) forecasts that in 2024, the VN-Index will fluctuate around the target of 1,387 points, corresponding to a growth rate of 10% in the base scenario. In a more optimistic scenario, the growth rate of the whole market from 15% will lead the VN-Index to 1,450 points.

In 2024, TPS believes that stocks will still be an attractive investment channel due to the strong correction in September-October 2023, which brought the valuation of VN-Index according to P/E from 14.87 times to 13.29 times at the end of November 2023.

In addition to the growth scenario around 1,450-1,500 points, many experts and securities companies also believe that the HoSE representative index may only fluctuate slightly at 1,300 points in 2024.

Regarding the perspective for the whole year 2024, Mr. Huynh Hoang Phuong, Director of Analysis, FIDT Asset Management and Consulting Company, forecasts that in the base scenario, VN-Index in 2024 will grow by 15%, reaching 1,300 points, with a fluctuation range of 20 points.

The conditions for this scenario are that Vietnam's economy recovers well in 2024 in the context of a soft landing in the US economy; risks in corporate bonds and the real estate market are limited; foreign capital flows return from the end of the second quarter of 2024. Some promising industries such as electricity construction, seafood, oil and gas, securities, etc.

The recovery trend of Vietnamese stocks around 1,300 points is also the forecast of KB Securities (KBSV) and Vietcombank Securities (VCBS).

KBSV's 2024 market assessment report believes that the market will have a clearer recovery trend, trading at the target price of 1,330 points. Sharing the same view, VCBS forecasts that the VN-Index may peak at 1,300 points in 2024. However, the VN-Index may have strong corrections alternating between increasing sessions.

KBSV identified the story of lower interest rates and growth of listed enterprises as the growth drivers of the market. "The growth forecast of listed enterprises is estimated at 15-20% in 2024, based on the low base of 2023 and market valuation factors," the report said. Specifically, the market P/E is currently at 15 times - a neutral level and is the basis for assessing that the market will have a better change in 2024.

In addition to the above four factors, Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS) believes that low interest rates will continue to be the main factor supporting market valuations in 2024. In the long term, according to VCBS, Vietnam will be a bright spot in economic growth in the region in the post-Covid-19 pandemic period and continue to maintain great attraction for foreign investment flows, both direct (FDI) and indirect (FII).

The most notable domestic risks identified by KBSV come from the pressure of corporate bond maturity in 2024 at a record high; the emergence of events affecting the safety of the banking system similar to the SCB event; the real estate market outlook is less positive than expected.

Most cautiously, according to the 2024 stock market analysis report of MB Securities Company (MBS), the representative index of HoSE this year may increase to the threshold of 1,250-1,280 points in the context of savings interest rates hitting "bottom".

"Reasonable market valuations are an opportunity to accumulate stocks with a long-term vision," the report assessed.

There are four factors driving the market as pointed out by this company, including the FED's interest rate adjustment, the improved business situation of listed enterprises, the warming real estate market and the KRX system being put into operation.

However, on the other hand, the market still has potential risks. MBS pointed out that the prolonged freeze of the real estate market will increase bad debt for the banking system, create capital flow bottlenecks, and reduce capital flow in the stock market.

In 2023, stocks closed at nearly 1,130 points, up 248 points, or 12.2%, from the end of last year. However, the market's performance was not an upward trend.

The HoSE index rose sharply in the first month of the year and then stagnated, moving sideways until the end of April. Three months later, the VN-Index jumped more than 20%, from 1,035 to nearly 1,250 points. However, the short-term peak did not last long. Then, in September and October 2023, the VN-Index lost more than 200 points continuously, then fluctuated around the important 1,100 point mark.

The stock market is an attractive channel for investors' cash flow but is always fluctuating. To see more comments on the Vietnamese stock market in 2024, readers can watch the topic "Economic picture 2023 - 2024, experience in overcoming difficulties and surviving in the Financial - Stock market" on eBox, a multi-disciplinary knowledge sharing platform.

Expert Ngo Quoc Khanh, currently working at the representative office of the State Securities Commission in Ho Chi Minh City, who has 24 years of investment experience, will be the speaker for this eBox issue. Photo: eBox — Expert Ngo Quoc Khanh, currently working at the representative office of the State Securities Commission in Ho Chi Minh City, who has 24 years of investment experience, will be the speaker for this eBox issue. Photo: *eBox*

During the 70-minute program, experts will review important milestones of the market and share their experiences in overcoming stock market waves over two decades of investment.

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Thao Van