Despite significant political progress with 18 elections held, Africa still faces many security challenges, internal conflicts and external interference.
"Struggling" between stability and instability
Africa is currently experiencing a period of major institutional upheaval, with the trend of democratization intertwined with political instability and military coups. Democratization in Africa is a volatile process, with many countries still maintaining non-democratic political systems or in an incomplete transition period. Some governments have been accused of electoral fraud, using the state apparatus to suppress the opposition or restricting press freedom, despite calls from the United Nations and the African Union (AU) for improved transparency in the electoral process, as well as for a stronger international monitoring role.
In addition, military coups remain a pressing issue. During the 2020-2023 period, there were eight coups in countries such as Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger, Sudan, etc. Although the AU has imposed sanctions to limit military governments, the reality is that many military-controlled governments still maintain power and have no plans to transfer power to civilian governments. Therefore, this trend continues to cause concern in the region.
Above all, the internal political crises that occurred in some countries that held elections “challenged” people’s confidence in the democratization process. Although the elections were generally conducted smoothly, there were still domestic political crises and electoral disputes, causing serious instability in many countries.
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| The internal political crisis that has taken place in several African countries holding elections has “challenged” people’s faith in the democratization process. (Source: Al Jazeera) |
In Senegal, the postponement of elections sparked massive protests, plunging the country into an unprecedented political crisis. In Mozambique, allegations of electoral fraud led to large-scale protests, escalating post-election tensions and violence. In South Africa and Botswana, internal divisions within ruling parties, combined with pressure from opposition parties, led to a serious loss of credibility for many governments, weakening their ability to govern and implement policies.
In this context, Africans are skeptical and even dissatisfied with the democratization process, especially in countries where power has been concentrated for too long in ruling parties.
In addition, many African countries struggle with economic governance, public service delivery, and the rule of law. According to the Ibrahim Foundation IIAG’s African Governance Index, although some countries have made progress in transparent governance and anti-corruption, overall institutional effectiveness in many countries remains low.
Specifically, while Rwanda, Botswana, and Mauritius are highly regarded for their effective governance and corruption control, countries such as South Sudan, the Central African Republic, and Somalia are still in the group with weak institutional capacity, ineffective administrative systems, and widespread corruption. Corruption is always a burning issue in the region, and many African governments cannot control the abuse of power by state officials. Anti-corruption efforts initiated by the AU and the African Development Bank (AfDB) have achieved some positive results but have not had much impact on the administrative apparatus in these countries.
Lands of Fire and Smoke
The sound of gunfire and conflict has never stopped on this continent.
The Horn of Africa continues to see escalating tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia, especially after Ethiopia signed an agreement with Somaliland without Somalia’s input. The situation has been further complicated by increased military cooperation between countries such as Egypt and Eritrea with Somalia, raising concerns about an anti-Ethiopian alliance. In the African Great Lakes region, the long-standing conflict between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, over mutual accusations of supporting armed groups such as the M23 rebels, has also increased violence and hampered regional peace efforts. Meanwhile, the civil war in Sudan continues with dire humanitarian consequences, but has received little attention from the international community.
These three challenges, coupled with a lack of resources and governance capacity, continue to leave Africa facing profound instabilities that have a major impact on development progress.
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| The long-standing conflict between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, due to mutual accusations of supporting armed groups such as the M23 rebels, has also increased violence and hindered regional peace efforts. (Source: France 24h) |
In the second quarter of 2024, there were approximately 1,000 terrorist attacks across Africa, killing more than 4,800 people. The hardest hit regions include:
Sahel region (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger): Extremist Islamist groups such as Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (ISIS) have increased attacks on government forces and civilians. The region remains the most serious security hotspot in Africa, with terrorist groups such as IS Sahel and al-Qaeda Nusra al-Islam maintaining a strong presence there.
Somalia and East Africa : The armed group Al-Shabaab remains a major threat to the Somali government and neighboring countries such as Kenya and Ethiopia.
Democratic Republic of Congo : Rebel groups such as M23 and LRA continue to cause instability in the east of the country.
The failure of governments to control their territories and protect civilians raises questions about the effectiveness of security institutions in Africa. The AU has deployed many initiatives such as the AMISOM peacekeeping force in Somalia and counter-terrorism operations in the Sahel region, but their effectiveness has been limited.
Key economic indicators remain weak
Inflation rates have eased significantly in many African economies compared to 2022 and 2023, as fuel and cereal prices stabilize. However, average inflation in 2024 remains above 10% in Angola, Burundi, Egypt, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, South Sudan, Sudan and Zimbabwe (mainly due to currency depreciation); and in Ghana and Zambia (due to high food prices due to crop damage following severe drought).
In 2024, several central banks in Africa (such as Botswana, Eswatini, Ghana, Kenya, Liberia, Mauritius, Morocco, Namibia, Rwanda, South Africa and Uganda) cut interest rates in late October after the European Central Bank cut interest rates in June and the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September.
On the contrary, central banks in some countries such as Angola, Burundi, Cabo Verde, Egypt, Malawi, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe have raised interest rates and tightened monetary policy to stabilize exchange rates, as they are facing serious balance of payments challenges.
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| Average inflation in 2024 will still be above 10% in many African countries. (Source: Financial Times) |
In addition, Africa’s labor market continues to lack employment opportunities to meet the needs of its rapidly growing population, high levels of informality and subsistence employment. After a slight decline in 2022-2023, unemployment rates will rise again in 2024, notably in Angola and South Africa, as economic growth slows down compared to population growth.
In 2024, the working-age population in Africa will be 185 million, an increase of 3 million (2%) compared to 2023. Labor force growth will be 1.2%, but employment growth will be only 0.7%. The unemployment rate for African youth (15-24 years old) is high at 22.8%, especially among young women. Of which, youth in the North African region has the highest unemployment rate in the world, at 27.5% (women 37.9%, men 19.5%), second only to Arab countries (due to the characteristic of Arab countries that women do not work). The IMF report in 2024 estimated that Africa needs to create 15 million new jobs each year to meet the growing labor force.
African economies continue to face external debt. According to the African Development Bank, the continent’s total external debt will be around $1.15 trillion by the end of 2023, with debt payments estimated at $163 billion in 2024. For many African countries, interest payments account for a significant proportion of government revenue. Debt crises remain a major risk to the region’s sustainable development prospects.
In addition, in the resource economy, mining projects in Africa often face resistance from local communities due to concerns about environmental impacts and unfair benefit sharing. Poor governance also leads to overexploitation and resource disputes, especially in the mining sector, causing conflicts in places such as the Democratic Republic of Congo.
In particular, the migration situation in Africa in 2024 continues to increase, reaching about 43 million people. The reasons are countries with limited economic bases, constant conflicts, unstable governments, growing young populations, climate change... According to reports by the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the charity Save the Children, Africa is one of the regions with the highest number of child migrants.
(to be continued)
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