Growing rift between US and Ukraine
When Vice President Kamala Harris met privately with President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Munich Security Conference in February 2024, she told the Ukrainian leader what he did not want to hear: refrain from attacking Russian oil refineries — a tactic that U.S. officials believed would drive up global energy prices and prompt a more aggressive Russian response.
The request from the US side angered President Zelensky and his senior officials, who saw drone strikes on Russian energy facilities as a rare bright spot in a conflict of attrition against a larger and better-equipped adversary, according to people familiar with the matter. President Zelensky refused to heed the advice, the sources said, and it was unclear whether it reflected a unified position within the Biden administration. In the weeks that followed, Washington stepped up its warnings in several conversations with Kiev, including a March 2024 visit by National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan to the capital and several conversations between US intelligence and defense officials and Ukrainians.
However, instead of accepting the US demands, Ukraine stepped up its strategy, attacking a series of Russian facilities, including an April 2 attack on Russia's third largest oil refinery, located nearly 1,300km from the front line.
The incidents have heightened tensions as Kiev awaits whether the US Congress will approve a $60 billion aid package for the country. The long-range Ukrainian attacks, which have targeted a dozen refineries since January 2024 and disrupted at least 10% of Russia’s refining capacity, come as President Biden intensifies his campaign and global oil prices hit a new six-month high. US, Ukrainian and European officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, spoke of the differing positions between Washington and Kiev.
Defenders of Ukraine's strategy accuse the White House of prioritizing domestic politics over Ukraine's military goals.
"I don't think the Biden administration wants high gas prices in an election year," Arkansas Republican Sen. Tom Cotton said last week.
Georgia Republican Congressman Austin Scott said: "While Russia attacks Ukraine's oil, gas and energy industry, why shouldn't Kiev attack these facilities?"
US officials also acknowledged that stabilizing global energy markets to reduce inflation is a priority for the Biden administration.
However, Europe believes that maintaining long-term support for Ukraine is also important. A senior US official commented: "Rising energy prices risk reducing European support for Ukraine." The military benefits of the bombing campaign that Ukraine is carrying out are also questioned, US officials commented.
The concern among military planners in Washington is that the strikes would do little to degrade Russia’s combat capabilities and could lead to large-scale retaliation against Ukraine’s power grid, leaving Kiev facing even greater losses than Moscow.
“UAV attacks do not completely destroy oil refineries and even parts of them, but only cause damage,” said Sergey Vakulenko, an oil industry expert, in an analysis by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
According to him: "The Ust-Luga and Ryazan oil refineries returned to operation just a few weeks after the attack."
In recent weeks, Russia has launched a series of strikes and missiles against Ukraine's energy infrastructure, leaving millions without power and raising concerns that the attacks could impact Ukraine's economy.
The Russian Defense Ministry said the strikes were a direct response to Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries and other infrastructure deep inside the country. The Kremlin had previously focused on attacking Ukraine’s industrial capabilities, an effort that some U.S. officials said had had limited impact.
Now, Ukrainian officials say the country needs to protect its cities. Last week, President Zelensky sent Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to Brussels for the NATO Foreign Ministers' Meeting. The Ukrainian Foreign Minister's proposal to Western countries is to support Kiev with more Patriot air defense systems.
"I'm sorry to say this, but who would believe that the most powerful army in the world doesn't have seven Patriot batteries to provide the only country in the world that is dealing with ballistic missile attacks every day?" Kuleba said.
Different positions of the parties
The U.S. opposition to the attacks on the oil facilities has angered Ukrainian officials, who see the strikes as fair game amid Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine. They see the strikes as necessary to make Russia pay for its actions and send a message that Russia will not be safe until the conflict ends.
They also see the attacks as necessary amid shortages of artillery shells to challenge Russian positions on the front lines. US arms deliveries to Ukraine have slowed in recent months as a $60 billion military aid package has stalled in the US Congress.
Some argue that US concerns about rising energy prices due to attacks on oil refineries are unfounded, citing the rise in prices due to OPEC+ production cuts and instability related to the conflict between Israel and Hamas.
Some critics say the Biden administration's messaging on the attacks has been inconsistent, confusing Ukraine supporters in Congress and foreign partners.
Asked about the attacks on oil refineries this month, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the Biden administration does not support Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory regardless of the target.
"We do not support nor facilitate Ukraine's attacks outside its territory," Mr. Blinken said.
US Defense Secretary Austin said he wanted Ukraine to target air bases and military infrastructure inside Russia rather than oil refineries.
The US stance appears to be at odds with Washington's allies in Europe.
French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné said Ukraine was acting to defend itself and called Russia the "aggressor". British Foreign Secretary David Cameron also defended Ukraine's right to attack Russian energy targets.
"Russia doesn't appear to be limiting itself to just military targets or just frontline attacks. It's attacking the whole of Ukraine," Cameron told the Washington Post.
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