Unfavorable weather and Russia's fortified defenses may make Ukraine hesitant to send its US-supplied Abrams tanks to the front lines.
Images circulating on social media in early November showed Ukrainian soldiers holding the insignia of a National Guard rapid reaction brigade next to a blue and black M1A1 Abrams main battle tank. The vehicle was parked in a muddy area and was not in combat condition.
This is the first sign that the Ukrainian military has begun deploying Abrams tanks closer to the front line since receiving 31 from the US in September. However, since then there has been no evidence that the Abrams tanks have been used in combat situations.
Western experts say the current battlefield situation makes it impossible for the Ukrainian army to effectively use Abrams tanks and they may have to hide for many more months before entering combat.
Ukrainian soldiers stand in front of an M1A1 Abrams tank in this photo released on November 6. Photo: X/2S7 Pion
"The front line is stable, Kiev is likely to decide to keep the Abrams tanks as a reserve force," said Mark Cancian, a former US Marine colonel and currently a senior advisor at the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (IISS).
Cancian said Ukraine could incorporate Abrams tanks into units operating US-made M2A2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. "Winter conditions make the deployment of joint Abrams-Bradley units ineffective and logistically untenable," he said.
Ukraine began a large-scale counteroffensive campaign in early June, aiming to break through Russian defense lines during the summer, cut off the land corridor connecting the Donbass region with the Crimean peninsula and gain a significant advantage on the battlefield.
Kiev, however, has made only limited gains and is facing further difficulties as the weather worsens. Heavy rains in late autumn have turned the ground muddy, hampering operations, especially for tanks and armored vehicles. The cold winter weather has also made logistics and basic military operations, such as loading artillery shells and pulling the trigger, difficult.
"The Ukrainian army seems to be waiting for the right moment to launch a new offensive campaign, most likely next spring," said the former US colonel.
US Abrams tanks (left) and Bradley armored vehicles deployed in Poland in November 2022. Photo: US Army
Kateryna Stepanenko, a Russia expert at the US-based Institute for the Study of War, shares the same view, saying that the muddy conditions of late autumn and early winter significantly hinder the operations of heavy equipment such as tanks.
Frozen ground in winter may make it easier for heavy vehicles to move, but heavy snowfall still makes maneuvering difficult and makes Ukrainian equipment easier to spot with the naked eye or heat-seeking equipment. Russian forces are less affected, as they are entrenched in well-insulated and protected bunkers and trenches.
Sergej Sumlenny, founder of the European Recovery Initiative Center in Germany, said the US missed the timing for delivering the Abrams tanks.
"The delay in supplying modern tanks to Ukraine has given Russian forces enough time to build solid defense lines. Western tanks and armored vehicles have little chance to shine when facing a system of trenches, minefields and dragon teeth obstacles with a depth of many kilometers," he said.
The current Russian defense line stretches about 1,000 km, making it difficult for the 31 US-supplied Abrams to become a key element in Ukraine's campaign.
The situation of the war between Russia and Ukraine. Graphics: WP
Sumlenny referred to the attack by the 47th Independent Mechanized Brigade and the 33rd Mechanized Brigade in Zaporizhzhia in June. Within just one to two hours, they lost nearly 20% of the Bradley fighting vehicles, 20% of the Leopard 2A6 tanks, and 50% of the Leopard 2R minesweepers in the Ukrainian army. This was considered a disastrous start for Kiev in its counteroffensive.
"That was the only time the Ukrainian army used Western armor in a frontal attack. They don't seem to want to repeat that disaster," he said.
Vu Anh (According to Business Insider )
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