(NLDO) - If you buy to hold for the long term, you should wait for periods when gold prices decline. Gold prices are expected to increase sharply in the first half of the year and cool down by the end of 2025.
On January 31 (the third day of Tet), the world gold price broke the highest mark of 2,790 USD/ounce set in October last year and set a new record at 2,797 USD/ounce.
In Vietnam, the price of SJC gold bars jumped to VND88.3 million/tael, an increase of about VND1.1 million/tael compared to yesterday. The price of gold rings and jewelry also reached VND87.1 million/tael, a sharp increase of about VND700,000/tael.
Before the shocking increase in gold prices today, a reporter from Nguoi Lao Dong Newspaper talked with gold expert Tran Duy Phuong about the trend of gold prices after Tet, before God of Wealth Day and the upcoming period.
- Reporter: Gold price has increased dramatically to nearly 2,800 USD/ounce. Will this trend continue, sir?
* Gold expert Tran Duy Phuong: According to my prediction, in the first 6 months of 2025, the gold price will continue to "shine". And from the third quarter onwards, it will tend to go sideways or decline slightly again. In the next few months, the gold price can reach 2,900 USD/ounce, so if you invest in gold, you need a clear strategy.
- Gold price could reach $3,000/ounce?
With the current positive performance of the precious metal, the next peak in the first half could reach $2,900/ounce. However, the price of gold will fluctuate in a zigzag pattern, increasing and decreasing in waves, and it is very difficult to go up in a straight line.
Gold expert Tran Duy Phuong
Although still shining, it is not easy to increase by more than 30% as in 2024. The world gold price mark of 3,000 USD/ounce is also very difficult without sudden factors. If it increases to a new peak of 2,900 USD/ounce, the gold price will be supported by factors such as the trend of major central banks in the world, especially the US Federal Reserve (FED), continuing to cut interest rates.
At the same time, the geopolitical tension in the Middle East has not shown any clear positive progress, which will support gold prices in the first half of 2025. US President Donald Trump in his new term with tariff policies or some other policies may cause tension in the financial market... Investors tend to seek gold as a safe haven.
But the above factors may calm down in the second half of the year or have been reflected in prices, so gold prices will find it difficult to break out in the second half of 2025.
- So will the price of SJC gold bars and gold rings increase following the world price? Should we buy gold now?
Certainly, when the world gold price increases, domestic gold will also increase. But investing at the present time requires considering whether the rate of return is good or not? For example, the price of SJC gold bars and gold rings is around 88 million VND/tael, if it exceeds 90-92 million VND/tael, the rate of return is around 4-5%, equal to the interest rate of a one-year savings deposit. If calculated according to the time, the rate of return will be higher.
SJC gold bar price has increased continuously in recent weeks.
However, the price of gold will not increase to 2,900 USD/ounce as expected, but will fluctuate up and down at certain times. Notably, during Tet and before the God of Wealth Day, gold buyers need to pay attention because the price of gold has increased continuously for many weeks, the world gold price has also increased very hotly, so there may be a period of downward adjustment before continuing to increase.
Demand for SJC gold bars and gold rings in the country also remains high, which can push gold prices to new highs, even abnormally highs. Therefore, if you buy gold for long-term holding, you should wait for periods when gold prices decline before "putting money in".
- What do you think is the smartest gold investment strategy in 2025?
As I said, gold prices are expected to increase sharply in the first half of the year and cool down by the end of 2025. If you buy gold, you should only allocate a ratio of 6/4, or 60% of your investment budget to gold, and the rest to savings. Do not put all your capital into gold at this time.
Source: https://nld.com.vn/gia-vang-lap-dinh-lich-su-moi-chien-luoc-dau-tu-nao-duoc-chuyen-gia-he-lo-196250131102044359.htm
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