Robusta coffee prices increase by nearly 100 USD, drought threatens crops, what is the weather forecast for the coming time?

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) sees average coffee prices in 2024 soaring 38.8% above the average in 2023, due to lower production amid adverse weather conditions. Average global coffee prices could rise even higher in 2025 if production declines significantly in major coffee-growing regions around the world.

Coffee price today 3/26/2025

World coffee prices increased sharply on both the London and New York exchanges. Robusta coffee prices increased by 90 USD/ton, approaching the 5,600 USD/ton mark. Arabica coffee prices traded at nearly 400 US cents/lb.

The decline of the USD, along with negative weather information, especially the lack of rain in Brazil and Vietnam, is helping coffee prices on both exchanges increase well.

In Brazil, the world's top coffee supplier, a Rabobank report said recent rainfall in Brazil and forecasts for the rest of the month are unlikely to prevent average March rainfall totals from falling to historic lows. "Prolonged dry weather into the early 2024-25 harvest could lead to further production declines in 2025-26 and slow growth of coffee branches in 2026-27," the report said.

Domestic coffee prices have increased compared to yesterday, currently trading at around 134,000 - 135,100 VND/kg. Domestically, these days, the Central Highlands provinces are also facing a "thirst" for water during the hot season. The weather situation is threatening to cause concerns for the next coffee crop. Although the dry season has just begun, many ponds and lakes in the Central Highlands have dried up, hundreds of hectares of crops are seriously lacking water for irrigation. Millions of hectares of key crops such as coffee, pepper, durian... on fertile basalt red soil are at risk of dying of thirst due to lack of water.

Meanwhile, according to the Esalq research group's forecast, hot and dry weather in February in Brazil has accelerated the final development of the robusta coffee crop, bringing the new harvest closer.

ICE-monitored arabica stocks fell to a one-month low of 777,708 bags on Friday, while ICE-monitored robusta stocks rose to a seven-week high of 4,414 lots on March 25.

Domestic coffee prices on March 25 decreased slightly by 100 - 200 VND in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Foodyoushouldtry)

According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the trading session on March 25, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for delivery in May 2025 increased by 90 USD, trading at 5,591 USD/ton. The delivery in July 2025 increased by 87 USD, trading at 5,579 USD/ton. The average trading volume was low.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange increased, with the May 2025 delivery term up 5.15 cents, trading at 398.55 cents/lb. The July 2025 delivery term increased 5.25 cents, trading at 392.65 cents/lb. Trading volume was high on average.

Domestic coffee prices on March 25 decreased slightly by 100 - 200 VND in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg

Average price	Medium
USD/VND exchange rate	25,440	+ 5
DAK LAK	133,700	- 100
LAM DONG	132,800	- 100
GIA LAI	133,700	- 100
DAK NONG	133,800	- 200

(Source: giacaphe.com)

According to weather forecasts from meteorological agencies for 2025, Vietnam’s Central Highlands region is expected to experience a year with lower than average rainfall, leading to a risk of severe drought. Provinces such as Dak Lak, Kon Tum and Gia Lai may face severe water shortages, affecting agriculture and people’s lives.

The Dong Nai and Vu Gia-Thu Bon river basins, which supply water to many areas, are also expected to have lower-than-normal water flows. This could cause difficulties in providing water for domestic use and agricultural production.

Mr. Mai Van Khiem, Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, recently said that 2025 is expected to be among the hottest years on record, with the global average temperature possibly 1.29-1.53 ​​degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels. In Vietnam, temperatures will remain high but are unlikely to break the record set in 2024.

Mr. Khiem also said that currently, ENSO is weakening from La Nina and may reach neutral state by mid-year, increasing the risk of localized heavy rains, urban flooding, flash floods and landslides. "This year, the East Sea may welcome 11-13 storms, of which 5-6 will directly affect the mainland, the risk of strong storms of level 12 or higher is still high."

Regarding weather developments from April to June, the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said that from April to June 2025, storms and tropical depressions operating in the East Sea and directly affecting the mainland will be equivalent to the average of many years (the average of many years in the East Sea is about 1.8 storms, making landfall is about 0.3 storms). Widespread heat waves are likely to appear in the Central Highlands and the South from April, later than the average of many years, with fewer hot days than the same period in 2024.

Climate change and natural disaster warning experts said that the North and North Central regions are preparing to welcome the first strong heat wave (33-35 degrees Celsius), with some places experiencing heat waves above 36 degrees Celsius, from March 26-28. The cause is the development of a low-pressure area in the West. This is the first widespread heat wave in the Northwest, North and Central Central regions. During this heat wave, the highest temperature in the Northwest is about 34-35 degrees Celsius, in Thanh Hoa - Hue is about 33-34 degrees Celsius.

In this situation, authorities recommend that people and businesses proactively use water economically, especially in agricultural production. In addition, it is necessary to closely monitor weather forecasts and announcements from authorities to take timely measures to respond to possible droughts.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-2632025-gia-ca-phe-robusta-tang-gan-100-usd-kho-han-de-doa-mua-mang-du-bao-thoi-weather-thoi-gian-toi-the-nao-308857.html