Coffee prices "jump", the factor that is stirring up the market, exports benefit unexpectedly?

In the first 15 days of March 2025, when coffee prices on the world market were high, Vietnam's export turnover of this commodity increased sharply. Vietnam's coffee exports exceeded 2 billion USD after only 2.5 months, according to Vicofa.

Coffee price today 3/25/2025

World coffee prices moved in opposite directions on the London and New York exchanges, in contrast to the session at the end of last week. Arabica coffee prices increased by 3.85 US cents/lb to a 2-week high, while robusta prices fell slightly by 14 USD/ton.

On the floor, both exchanges rose sharply at the beginning of the trading session, but when the USD recovered, both exchanges fell sharply, causing Robusta to close in negative territory. The USD rose to a multi-week high against other currencies, after data showed that US business activity stabilized in March, along with a report that US President Donald Trump would be flexible on upcoming tariffs.

Robusta coffee prices were under pressure from rising supplies after ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories rose to a six-week high last Friday, reaching 4,360 lots.

Meanwhile, weather concerns in Brazil are pushing up arabica prices after Brazil’s largest arabica coffee cooperative, Cooxupe, said higher temperatures and lower-than-normal rainfall last month in Brazil could hurt this year’s crop. In addition, supplies are tight as ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a one-month low of 777,708 bags on Friday.

Domestic coffee prices today, March 25, fluctuated between 132,500 - 133,600 VND/kg. Weather conditions in the Central Highlands are causing concerns for Vietnam's coffee production in the coming crop. Although the dry season has just begun, many ponds and lakes in the Central Highlands have dried up, and hundreds of hectares of crops are severely lacking irrigation water. Forecasts of hot weather and prolonged drought are factors that may continue to support robusta coffee prices in the coming time.

Extreme weather conditions have been a major factor in driving coffee production shortages in recent years. In particular, market speculation over weather events in major coffee producing countries such as Brazil, Vietnam and Indonesia has contributed to the continued volatility in coffee prices. The market will continue to closely monitor weather conditions in the coming months, as this is a key factor in the eventual development of the arabica crop.

On both exchanges, the decrease in short-term contracts, increase in inventories, and the approaching harvests in Brazil and Indonesia are factors that will drag down the market in the near future.

Domestic coffee prices at the close of the first session of the week (March 24) fluctuated slightly in some key purchasing localities. (Source: europosters.eu)

According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the first trading session of the week (March 24), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for delivery in May 2025 decreased by 14 USD, trading at 5,501 USD/ton. The delivery in July 2025 decreased by 12 USD, trading at 5,492 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange turned up, with the May 2025 delivery period up 3.85 cents, trading at 394.00 cents/lb. The July 2025 delivery period increased 4.25 cents, trading at 388.30 cents/lb. Trading volume was high on average.

Domestic coffee prices at the end of the first session of the week (March 24) fluctuated slightly in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg

Average price	Medium
USD/VND exchange rate	25,435	+ 65
DAK LAK	133,800	- 100
LAM DONG	132,900	0
GIA LAI	133,800	- 100
DAK NONG	134,000	0

(Source: giacaphe.com)

Vietnam's average coffee export price in the first half of March reached a record high of $5,803 per tonne, up nearly 74% year-on-year due to concerns about supply shortages.

According to the latest data from Vietnam Customs, in the first 15 days of March, Vietnam's coffee exports reached 93,898 tons, worth 545 million USD, down 7.4% in volume and up 54.2% in value compared to the same period last year.

In total, from the beginning of the year to March 15, coffee exports reached 406,637 tons, worth 2.28 billion USD, down 18.4% in volume but still up 42% in value compared to the same period.

The main reason is that the average export price of coffee since the beginning of the year has increased by 66.4% compared to the same period last year, reaching 5,614 USD/ton. In the first half of March alone, the export price reached a record 5,803 USD/ton, up 2.2% compared to the previous month and up nearly 74% compared to the same period in 2024.

In the domestic market, coffee prices have also continued to increase even during Vietnam's harvest period, which lasted from late last year to early this year, due to concerns about reduced supply.

According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), coffee output in the 2024-2025 crop year is expected to decrease by 5% compared to the previous crop year to about 27 million bags (equivalent to about 1.6 million tons) due to the impact of climate change. In addition, the planting area is narrowed due to the impact of other crops with higher economic efficiency.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-2532025-gia-ca-phe-nhay-nhot-yeu-to-dang-khuay-dao-thi-truong-xuat-khau-huong-loi-bat-ngo-308739.html